Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 100% CASH

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Fed Balance Sheet (4:30pm), Money Supply (4:30pm)

My Observations and What to Expect:

  • Futures moderately higher ahead of jobs report.
  • Jobs report whether good or bad, has been rallied on initially over the last two weeks. So a high jobless claims # doesn't guarantee a sell-off.
  • GDP report tomorrow will be what everyone prepares/positions themselves for today.
  • Despite the futures being higher, there is a possibility that traders take profits from the most recent rally ahead of the GDP report.
  • Gap as it stands now, seems very fill-able. But jobs # could throw a wrench in that play - stay tuned.
  • Today will likely be a low volume day.
  • Not a good sign for bulls showing for three days straight they can't close above the 200-day moving average, despite very aggressive attempts to do so.
  • Volume was surprisingly low yesterday for a down-day yesterday.
  • Markets still heavily overbought.
  • The lack of bad news, especially out of Europe has been the bulls' best friend and really the catalyst for this rally we've seen.

Actions I Will Be Taking:

  • Watch the open and jobs # to determine whether I can fade the open.
  • I don't expect to initiate any new swing trades today.
  • Will spend my day likely scalping off of TNA and TZA and other 3x ultras.
  • If trending day, I'll fade any counter-trend action.
  • If sideways, I'll fade extremes in price movement.

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