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Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.2% higher. 
  • Asian markets finished 1.0% higher on the day. 
  • US futures are trading slightly above break-even. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Housing Starts (8:30am), Existing Home Sales (10am), EIA Petroleum STatus Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Day #2 on the market pullback. Overall there was no sign of panic or change in behavior for the market. 
  • Volume on SPX  over the past two days during the sell-off has been incredibly low, which further validates that this pullback is temporary. 
  • We are also no longer short-term overbought as we had been in recent days. 
  • 30-minute chart of SPX shows a very nice bull-flag that has been formed this week. 
  • Last two days have seen buying power emerge in the afternoon, which shows us that there is underlying buying strength in this market still. 
  • Price action pulled back inside of the upper bollinger-band. 
  • Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return. 
  • Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
  • Resistance at 1437 and 1440 was broken with little problem and now becomes support
  • Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1405. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week. 
  • VIX dropped despite the market finishing higher yesterday .Rests at 14.
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
  • If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.  

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Covered position in PRGO at $114.68 for a -1.3% loss. 
  • Stopped out of GMCR at $30.39 for a -4.3% loss. 
  • Bought SHLD at $61.10. 
  • Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board. 
  • ALXN stop-loss moved up to $110.00
  • Stop-loss for NLSN at $29.30.
  • Stop-Loss for WYNN increased to $110.50.
  • Stop-Loss for BEAV adjusted to $40.90. 
  • Remain long GTAT at $6.73, BEAV at $40.75, WYNN at $107.47, NLSN at $28.70, and ALXN at $102.53
  • Track my portfolio RealTime here. 

Charts:

SP 500 Market Analysis 9-19-12

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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