by Ryan Mallory

How much more can we expect from news in Greece to continue juicing this market? Some will say that it's not all about Greece - it's about earnings too. Wrong! Take out Apple (AAPL) and earnings season was quite dismal to say the least. I will say though that AAPL has helped the markets aside from Greece, particularly the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100. In all honestly, I'm just trying to get through this post without using the words P*r*b*l*c and T*P since it seems like you can find a million other posts on the web stating the same thing. Be cautious though because the markets are closed tomorrow, and there is another "important" Greece meeting among the European countries which requires another agreement, that technically has yet to be agreed upon (I can't keep up with all the agreements that has to be made). But there is a chance that this agreement doesn't go through, and as a result Greece would start down the path of default. With the market closed tomorrow it could create quite the quagmire for equity longs if this were to happen, because we'd likely see a nasty market sell-off (assuming rational market behavior of some sort). 

For those of you who are not familiar with the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator, here's a quick tutorial...

The Indicator uses the advance/decline ratio with a stochastics overlay. The bottom half of the chart is the weekly candles of the S&P. The chart itself goes back two years. Some folks have criticized me for posting this chart in the past saying that it isn't 100% accurate - but if it was, as some think it must be, then I wouldn't be posting it - I'd save it all for myself and make an ungodly sum of money off of it. But it isn't perfect and there is always a level of error that you can expect from it. But overall, it is fairly accurate, and when the indicator hits certain extremes on the stochastics, it is often a good time to start hedging positions that are going against the direction of the indicators, or start loading up on short or long positions in-line with the direction that the indicator itself is pointing to.

Remember to pay the closest attention to where the %K & %D lines cross (i.e the red and green lines). This is typically where we begin to see changes in the behavior of the market - not always but quite often enough, to warrant our attention. What this tool is best for, in terms of what I use it for, is market timing and position building. When there is a crossover that goes against the positions in my portfolio, I, often times, look to take profits in those positions or at least hedge against them

Here is the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator.

by Ryan Mallory

It has taken the market, what seems like an eternity, to finally cross over and start moving down again. We had our first bit of sustained selling of the new year and that has finally led to a reversal in the SPRI. This typically means at the very least, we see stock  prices struggle for the next two weeks or so - very rarely do they start surging again once we get the reversal signal. Not only that, but I'm liking the doji candle, and the fact that the Daily SPRI that I also  track is showing a reversal at the same time as well. 

So if you have long positions, start looking for a graceful exit. It's likely to get bumpy from here. 

For those of you who are not familiar with the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator, here's a quick tutorial...

The Indicator uses the advance/decline ratio with a stochastics overlay. The bottom half of the chart is the weekly candles of the S&P. The chart itself goes back two years. Some folks have criticized me for posting this chart in the past saying that it isn't 100% accurate - but if it was, as some think it must be, then I wouldn't be posting it - I'd save it all for myself and make an ungodly sum of money off of it. But it isn't perfect and there is always a level of error that you can expect from it. But overall, it is fairly accurate, and when the indicator hits certain extremes on the stochastics, it is often a good time to start hedging positions that are going against the direction of the indicators, or start loading up on short or long positions in-line with the direction that the indicator itself is pointing to.

Remember to pay the closest attention to where the %K & %D lines cross (i.e the red and green lines). This is typically where we begin to see changes in the behavior of the market - not always but quite often enough, to warrant our attention. What this tool is best for, in terms of what I use it for, is market timing and position building. When there is a crossover that goes against the positions in my portfolio, I, often times, look to take profits in those positions or at least hedge against them

Here is the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator.

by Ryan Mallory

We're on week 6 of a most impressive market rally, with yet even the slightest of market pullbacks. So what can one expect really, in the weeks ahead. First, let's take a look at market rallies dating back to 1963, nearly 50 years of market data using weekly chart data, to find out what rallies, on a consecutive positive week basis, were greater than what we are currently seeing.

• January 1998 through February 1998 - 8 consecutive weeks
• May 1997 through June 1997 - 8 consecutive weeks
• July 1989 through September 1989 - 9 consecutive weeks
• September 1986 through November 1986 - 8 consecutive weeks
• October 1985 through December 1985 - 12 consecutive weeks
• December 1975 through January 1976 - 8 consecutive weeks
• January 1972 through March 1972 - 8 consecutive weeks *
• December 1970 through February 1971 - 8 consecutive weeks
• November 1963 through January 1964 - 9 consecutive weeks **
• July 1963 through September 1963 - 9 consecutive weeks

Read more...