Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.2% higher.
  • European markets are trading flat.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Jobless Claims (8:30), Retail Sales (8:30), Import and Export Prices (8:30), Business Inventories (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), Treasury Budget (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Despite a lot of follow through weakness at the open yesterday, SPX managed to fight its way back into positive territory and remain also above the 10-day moving average. 
  • Huge hammer candle formed that could mean that we've now seen the extent of the selling in the very near-term. 
  • Bears continue to blow opportunities to push the market lower, instead, the dip buyers continue to come to the market rescue each and every time. 
  • I spent the day covering and taking profits in my short positions and flipped during yesterday's bounce off of the lows to a slightly net long bias in the market. 
  • Five out of the last six days, volume on SPY has been incredibly weak. 
  • SPX has come off of overbought short-term conditions. 
  • We came within 2 points of the 20-day moving average being tested yesterday and 4 points from the 1850 breakout level before the intraday bounce came about. 
  • A break below 1835 - 1840 would represent a major milestone for the bears
  • I am cautious towards this market as recent history suggests 140+ point rallies is on the extreme high end of what a market can do in a month's time. 
  • 30-minute SPX chart has a double top in place and confirmed. 
  • On the SPY you have a huge gap now that needs to be filled at some point from 3/4 - there is also the gap up from 2/7 that has gone unfilled as well. 
  • The biggest technical support level is the strength SPX found from the trend line that started off of the August '13 lows. 
  • The Market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Covered JCI yesterday at $46.63 for a 4.6% gain. 
  • Covered RCL at $50.7 for a 0.7% gain. 
  • Covered SU at 33.04 for a 0.9% loss. 
  • Added one new long position yesterday. 
  • Will look to add 1-2 new additional position today. 
  • Long 10% / Cash 90% 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 3-13-14

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small-ryan-malloryRyan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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