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Pre-market update:

  • European markets are trading 0.4% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded 0.2% higher.
  • US futures are trading flat. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Consumer Price Index (8:30), Redbook (8:55), Treasury International Capital (9), Industrial Production (9:15), Housing Market Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX is creeping into unchartered territory by rising eight straight days and attempting to make it nine today. 
  • The SPX has typically risen in long winded streaks in 2013 where instead of the typical give-and-take that a market experiences, the bulls push higher with little in the way of obstacles. 
  • Because of the euphoria of this rally, I've steered clear of getting too heavy in my long exposure at this juncture, and instead maintaining the status quo in my long positions and waiting for at least a 1-day pullback. 
  • Volume remains stagnant and shows a real lack of interest in this market as it rallies at its highs. 
  • I don't necessarily think we need a huge pullback, but I think we a need at least one day in which the market finishes lower, and likely some days of consolidation to say the least. 
  • I expect a pullback of some kind, small or large, to occur today. History demands it. 
  • SPX continues to trade against the upper Bollinger Band as well - a place that can often times lead to heavy resistance
  • Steep upward trend-line off of the SPX 6/24 lows has rising support at 1655. SPX has rallied 120 points since then and up 12 out of the last 14 days. 
  • A new higher high was formed Thursday in a most convincing manner, and officially ended the downtrend off of the 5/22  highs. 
  • VIX remains under 14. 
  • Careful to note all the gaps that have formed on this uptrend off of the lows of 6/24. More times than not a market will ultimately come back and fill those gaps. 
  • Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold VZ at 50.16 yesterday for a 2.2% loss. 
  • Added QID at 21.17 yesterday. 
  • Current Longs: CME at 76.53, SJM at 104.63, AAPL at 422.30, BDX at 99.98
  • I'll look to add some new long positions today if this market tries to trend lower today. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-16-13

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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