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Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading mixed/flat.
  • Asian markets traded -0.4% lower.
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), New Home Sales (10am), Consumer Confidence (10am), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am), 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX offered a failed breakout attempt yesterday, after briefly trading outside of 1563 and the recent consolidation we have been stuck in. 
  • Surprisingly  enough, the SPX has traded lower 5 out of the last 7 days. Despite that, the index has not drifted lower one bit. 
  • With that said, there is a lot of underlying strength in this market, as it has attempted to push lower day after day with no real progress being made on behalf of the bears
  • We've pulled back off of overbought conditions quite nicely. 
  • Consolidation continues to be the theme on the daily. We need to see either a break to the upside of 1563, or a break to the downside of 1538 to determine the market's next move. 
  • Volume continues to remain steady over the past week and a half of trading. 
  • Dead-cat bounces, like some may determine Friday to be, have really been non-existent of late. Once they bounce, they just keep going higher, no true reversals that takes us lower than the previous lows reached. 
  • We have seen the volume flow in much stronger on the sell-offs then on the days when the market rallies.
  • VIX is hovering in the 13's. 
  • I don't recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time. 
  • Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
  • Also the amount of margin being used to buy stocks are at levels that historically have led to notable reversals in the market. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Added HOS yesterday at $44.92.
  • Stopped out of HOV for a -2.3% loss. 
  • Remain Long SLV at $27.97, SRPT at $33.07, GG at $33.55
  • Remaining patient at these elevated price levels - not going to force position that aren't there. 
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 3-26-13

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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