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Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading mixed.
  • Asian markets traded -0.6% lower. 
  • US futures are trading slightly lower ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Rebook (8:55am), Treasury Budget (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX rose on Friday for the seventh consecutive session and nine out of the last ten. 
  • We closed just below the upper Bollinger band, as the market continues to expand higher just below the upper resistance band each day. 
  • Volume on the rise yesterday dramatically tapered offer and back to the levels we saw on Thursday. 
  • Fear has completely escaped this market which puts investors, unknowingly in a very vulnerable position. 
  • Also the amount of margin being used to buy stocks are at levels that historically have let to notable reversals in market action. 
  • I'm looking for a pullback more than anything at this juncture and an opportunity for stocks to create more favorable setups to the long-side as a result. 
  • We are extremely oversold in the short-term. 
  • While we can still move higher from here, I believe there is far more risk over the next 2-3 days in doing so. 
  • Significant bearish divergence on the T2108 as the market is putting in recovery highs, the T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day MA) is significantly lower.
  • The weekly chart shows a strong breakout in place. 
  • VIX sold off hard yesterday and dropped back into the mid-11's. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • No new positions added yesterday. 
  • Closed out ADBE at $41.10 for a 5.7% gain. 
  • Closed out LVS at $53.23 for a -3.1% loss. 
  • Closed out TRI at $30.97 for a -3.4% loss. 
  • Remain Long SLV at $27.97; Short ALXN at $91.65
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 3-12-13

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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