Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- Europe is trading -0.4% lower.
- Asian markets traded -0.3% lower.
- US futures are trading slightly down ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Treasury STRIPS (3pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX found some momentum to close higher on Friday despite being clearly overbought at this point.
- Post Recovery highs are at 1465 on a closing basis. SPX on Friday closed one point above it at 1466.
- There's really no significant level of resistance for the market above 1466 until you get to 1501.
- Bears need to work on getting the SPX back below 1455 for starters and ultimately back below 1430.
- It will take a significant move, but below 1398, the trend will be bearish.
- Be aware of upcoming news events and discussions that will permeate the markets: Debt Ceiling Debate, Fiscal Cliff Part II, Employment Recovery.
- We are hitting the upper band of a well-defined channel that the SPX has been trading in since the November lows.
- There is still a huge gap on the SPY chart that ultimately needs to be filled.
- 30-minute chart looks extremely over-extended.
- The consolidation, in a perfect world, shouldn't pullback further than 1448, where there is minor support.
- VIX currently is under 14 which is extraordinarily rare.
- Trend-line has dramatically flattened off of the November lows.
- SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed a bearish reversal to come.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold SREV at $6.56 on Friday from 6.03 for a 8.8% gain.
- Remain long BUD at $88.99.
- Will look to add 1-2 new positions to the portfolio today.
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX: