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Pre-market update (updated 7am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 0.7% higher.
  • Asian markets traded in a wide range from -1.2% up to +0.6%.
  • US futures are moderately higher ahead of the open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): PMI Manufacturing Index (8:58am), ISM Manufacturing Index (10am), Construction Spending (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Another day of consolidation below the 50-day moving average on SPX. 
  • Most importantly on the price action is that it is not being rejected at the 50-day MA - just settling below it for now. 
  • Today's gap open should put price action right at, or above the moving average. 
  • Volume was strong on Friday, but most likely due to end of month window dressing. 
  • Stocks remain overbought in general and on the SPX. This can last a while, and does not necessarily mean that a pullback is looming. 
  • Ideally for the bulls, if price action can close at or above 1429, the downtrend off of the September highs would be officially done and over with, as a new higher high would be established for the first time. 
  • Over the last 10 trading sessions, the market has rallied strong and not provided a much needed pullback/lhigher-low. 
  • First days of the trading month tend to be overly bullish. Expect the same today. 
  • Note the support at the 8-day exponential moving average for this market. Rising support is currently at 1404. 
  • Next level of resistance rests at 1437. 
  • Fiscal Cliff discussions continues to dominate the news. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator shows a strong possibility for a Santa Rally
  • SPX currently has recaptured the 10, 20, and 200-day moving averages
  • VIX dropped to 15. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 12-3-12

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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