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Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading -0.6% lower.   
  • Asian markets traded in a wide/mixed range, from -1.6% up to +1.9%. 
  • US futures are flat ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), EIA Petroleum Status (11am) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Despite being up nicely on the day, SPX reversed 25 point to finish notably lower on the day, yet again. 
  • Price action over the last 6 days has left the market overextended to the downside and about 75 points lower since the election. 
  • Looking at the weekly chart, we've typically bounced after testing the lower bollinger band on the weekly chart, which is currently at 1341, and is my target for a bounce - just like we did on 6/1. 
  • Market remains fixed in oversold territory, and setting up for a Thanksgiving bounce next week (typically bullish for trading). 
  • After trading in a well defined declining channel, the selling accelerated yesterday, by breaking through the declining resistance level. 
  • Price Support  at 1355 was broken as well. 
  • If there is a rally in the coming days, I'd look for 1404 to be targeted resistance. 
  • Last time we broke through the 200-day SMA, it led to a major sell-off in August 2011 that lasted through early October of that same year. 
  • 30-min chart shows a breakdown in price as well. 
  • VIX shot up to just a shade below 18. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Covered LULU at $68.00 from $70.00 for a 2.9% gain. 
  • Sold MLNX at $83.51 from $86.45 for a -3.4% loss. 
  • Covered INVN at $10.79 from $11.31 for a 4.6% gain
  • Shorted CLNE at $12.88
  • Remain short Short SODA at $35.69, HOLX at $20.16 and  CAKE at $33.26.
  • Will watch today's action and look to cover 1-2 of my shorts on any major sell-off. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-15-12

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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