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Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading -0.6% lower.   
  • Asian markets traded -0.9% lower. 
  • US futures are moderately lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Treasury Budget (2pm) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Extremely light day of trading due to Veterans  Day's and it being a holiday for banks yesterday. 
  • As a result we traded in a sideways pattern, which is the second day in a row that we've seen this. 
  • Still remained fixed below the 200-day moving average. 
  • Typically a dead-cat bounce is a 'snap-back' reaction in the market. It doesn't typically occur after days of consolidation. We may need to see additional selling if that dead-cat bounce is going to occur. 
  • Near-term support levels are are at 1374-5 and if that breaks there's support at 1356. Both support levels are considered minor support levels. 
  • If there is a rally in the coming days, I'd look for 1404 to be targeted resistance
  • We are undoubtedly oversold short-term and long-term. 
  • Price is back inside the lower-bollinger band. 
  • A lower-low was established at 1403 as well as a previous lower-high. All bearish developments of an established downtrend. 
  • Last time we broke through the 200-day SMA, it led to a major sell-off in August 2011 that lasted through early October of that same year. 
  • The 30-minute chart show a nice block of consolidation of late. 
  • VIX has been all over the map of late, and dropped 10% yesterday and settled at 16.37.

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Remain short Short INVN at $11.31, SODA at $35.69, LULU at $70.00, CAKE at $33.26.
  • Will watch today's action and look to cover 1-2 of my shorts on any major sell-off. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-13-12

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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