Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- Europe is trading -0.8% lower.
- Asian markets traded -0.8% lower.
- US futures are moderately lower.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Wholesale Trade (10am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX continued the push lower yesterday, with selling persistent throughout the day.
- On a technical note, SPX closed below the 200-day moving average without a fight.
- Price is currently well outside of the lower-bollinger band.
- Short-term we have, surprisingly, yet to get oversold in this market.
- New channel to the down side has formed and price is trading nicely inside of it, but with yesterday's sell-off it is touching the lower band, which means we could be setting up for a bounce in the coming days.
- Back in October we traded outside of the lower bollinger band and remained out there for two straight days, before bouncing back to the 20-day moving average.
- Volume, though less on Thursday than the previous session, was still notably higher than normal.
- Biggest wave of selling that we've seen since bouncing off of the 6/4 lows.
- Bear-flag confirmation as we had talked about before occurred at 1410.
- A lower-low was established at 1403 as well as a previous lower-high. All bearish developments of an established downtrend.
- Last time we broke through the 200-day SMA, it led to a major sell-off in August 2011 that lasted through early October of that same year.
- The 30-minute chart also validates the daily chart with the well-defined downtrend that is in place.
- Divergence in the VIX yesterday as it closed lower on the day at 18.48.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Shorted CAKE at $33.26.
- Shorted LULU at $70.00.
- Remain short SODA at $35.69.
- May consider closing 1 of my 3 short positions this morning if th emarket continues moving lower.
Chart for SPX: