Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- Europe is trading 0.7% higher.
- Asian markets traded in a wide range from -1.3% up to +0.8%.
- US futures are flat ahead of the open.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Productivity and Costs (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing INdex (8:58am), ISM Manufacturing Index (10am), Consumer Confidence (10am), Construction Spending (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Another flat day in the market, but saw us once again test the rising trend-line off of the October 2011 lows. Today that support lies at 1409.
- There is overhead resistance between 1425 and 1432, that the bulls will need to break through, before I can have any optimism towards this market.
- We are just barely coming out of short-term oversold conditions. Longer-term we are definitively oversold.
- We have consolidated very tight for four straight days. A sharp move is likely in the coming days. The tight coiling suggests it is to the downside.
- 1400 has been well defended of late, particularly in the S&P futures overnight. We'll see whether the bears can push price below that level or not.
- Employment number comes out tomorrow, and will carry much weight towards the U.S. presidential election. We could see a sharp reaction on a significant beat/miss.
- Triple-top confirmed on the SPX over the past two months.
- Weekly chart also supports a breakdown in the previous channel, and end to its longer-term uptrend off of the June lows.
- VIX spiked above 18 yesterday.
- Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
- One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold AMZN at 236.09 from $231.34 for a 2.1% gain.
- Remain long AGU at $106.23.
- Shorted MCP at $10.34
- Shorted ESRX at 61.51
- Track my portfolio RealTime here.
Chart for SPX: