Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- Europe is trading mix from -0.2% up to +0.6%.
- Asian markets traded 0.9% higher.
- US futures are trading moderately higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Employment Cost Index (8:30am), Treasury Refunding Announcement (9am), Chicago PMI (9:45am), Farm Prices (3pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- After being closed for four days (counting the normal weekend), market action today could be very unpredictable.
- On Friday, SPX had a perfect test of the trend-line off of the October 2011 lows. Today that support rests at 1404-5
- The price range over the last four days of trading on the SPY has consolidated nicely. A move above $142.10, and things should get more bullish.
- With the confirmed triple-top in place on SPX, any rally that we get today, should face resistance at 1425.
- Volume has steadily increased over the last two trading sessions.
- Short-term we are oversold, and no doubt ready for a bounce. Sometimes, it can take a lot longer than you think to have happen.
- Price support also exists at 1400.
- Weekly chart also supports a breakdown in the previous channel, and end to its longer-term uptrend off of the June lows.
- 30-minute chart is showing some accumulation/channeling at the lows of the recent sell-off.
- VIX is below 18.
- Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
- One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
My Opinions & Trades:
Chart for SPX: