Technical Outlook:

  • Dow Jones Industrial snapped a 9-day winning streak. Last two times that has happened, it made it to 10-days. Not so yesterday. can the market keep going
  • SPX finished lower as well yesterday and below the 5-day moving average (by one point). 
  • Again though, the rampers showed up at 3:30pm to push the market off of the lows. 
  • Still the market isn't showing any major willingness to sell this market off hard or fast. 
  • Volume on the sell-off has been extremely weak which is a good sign there isn't a lot of enthusiasm to the sell-off. 
  • Watch 2155 on SPX - a break of this price level could lead to further selling today. 
  • So far the bulls have only been willing to work off overbought conditions through time and not through a pullback. Most clearly seen over the last two years that the market consolidated. 
  • Earnings season kicks into high gear next, particularly among the tech sector and will define the week as a whole. 
  • The trade to the upside can be categorized as the "pain trade" or "climbing the wall-of-worry" - that's because this rally is hated by most traders. Heck,I don't like it either, but I trade it because that is what the market is giving us right now. 
  • Shockingly, following the Brexit, just a little less than a month ago, SPX now has 2200 in its sights. 
  • The market trend-line is clearly starting to flatten out some. 30 point moves on SPX will be much more difficult to achieve.
  • VIX saw a strong spike yesterday, rising 8% to just under key resistance at 13. 
  • Oil appears overdue for a bounce here. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 
  • Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • SPX pulled out of its 3-4 day holding pattern and broke out to new all-time highs yesterday. stock market hated rally
  • 5-day moving average continues to hold strong. Look for a break and close below the 5-day for signs of short-term weakness. 
  • Slight increase in volume yesterday, but still way below recent averages. 
  • The trade to the upside can be categorized as the "pain trade" or "climbing the wall-of-worry" - that's because this rally is hated by most traders. Heck,I don't like it either, but I trade it because that is what the market is giving us right now. 
  • Shockingly, following the Brexit, just a little less than a month ago, SPX now has 2200 in its sights. 
  • The market trend-line is clearly starting to flatten out some. 30 point moves on SPX will be much more difficult to achieve.
  • SPX 30-minute chart continues to put in higher-highs and higher-lows. Very healthy, but like the daily chart, is starting to flatten out the trend-line some. 
  • On the whole the volume continues to diminish following the Brexit vote. 
  • VIX Continues its drop, maintaining its move beneath 12 - rare territory for the VIX and has not been achieved in over a year. Though there is a hammer candle that formed yesterday, that could lead to an upside reversal. 
  • Significant selling that ultimately rebounded off of the lows yesterday for USO. Still struggling with the 10-day moving average. No clear edge trading oil right now. 
  • So far, earnings season hasn't been the disappointment that many thought it would be. 
  • SPX on the weekly chart is attempting to string together its fourth consecutive week in the green. 
  • SPX on the monthly chart is attempting to string together its fifth consecutive month in the green. 
  • Despite impressive monthly streak, it has been marked with consistent volatility seen most clearly in the Brexit sell-off and rally to new all-time highs. 
  • The next three weeks will be the thick of earnings season. Know when your stocks are reporting and plan accordingly. Expect plenty of large moves and for futures to be affected by the reports of FB, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN and others. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 
  • Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

Read more...

Technical Outlook:

  • Market pulled back for the second time in the last three trading sessions. summer volume lazy
  • The volume was extremely light on SPY yesterday, and barely above Christmas Eve's half day of trading last year. Needless to say, volume was well below average readings and half of what was seen on Friday. 
  • Mini-bull flag pattern developing on the daily chart of SPX. 
  • Watch the 5-day moving average going forward. So far, the market has refused to break below this level. 
  • Consolidation over the past three days has been very healthy for the market. Recent rally was unsustainable. Some consolidation was overdue. 
  • So far, earnings season hasn't been the disappointment that many thought it would be. 
  • VIX continues to melt away, and the lowest closing print in the past year (7/17/15 was the last time a reading was lower). 
  • SPX continues to trade sideways following the massive rally out of the trading range. Look for a possible break out of it today. 
  • SPX on the weekly chart is attempting to string together its fourth consecutive week in the green. 
  • SPX on the monthly chart is attempting to string together its fifth consecutive month in the green. 
  • Despite impressive monthly streak, it has been marked with consistent volatility seen most clearly in the Brexit sell-off and rally to new all-time highs. 
  • A break in the 5-day moving average could ultimately result in a pullback to the breakout level at 2120. 
  • The next three weeks will be the thick of earnings season. Know when your stocks are reporting and plan accordingly. Expect plenty of large moves and for futures to be affected by the reports of FB, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN and others. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 
  • Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

Read more...

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small-ryan-malloryRyan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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