Technical Outlook:

  • SPX had a major sell-off yesterday that saw the index drop back below the 5 and 10-day moving averages. More importantly the 20-day moving average was breached yesterday with close below the MA. april selloff
  • SPX close to trading below the lows from last week. It would be a first for the index in the last 11 weeks. 
  • SPY volume saw a notable uptick yesterday and close right at average levels. 
  • VIX saw one of its biggest moves in a very long time - rising 10.5% to 15.22 and a break of the downtrend off of the February highs. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) dropped 6.9% - will need to see further decay to call for a breakdown in the indicator. 
  • Most important development yesterday on the chart was the confirmation (just barely) of the head and shoulders pattern on the 30 minute chart of SPX by closing below 2077.
  •  Another sell-off today and close below 2059 would result in a negative month for April for SPX - not even considered a possibility just two days ago. 
  • Dip buyers were present in the early going for the market yesterday morning, but noticeably absent yesterday afternoon. 
  • Commodities, notably Gold, Silver and Crude continue to surge in a major way. 
  • Advancers have been incredibly strong of late despite weak or minimal moves from the market as a whole. This is a rare phenomenon. 
  • It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly. 
  • April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
  • Yellen's dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • Despite an early sell-off, SPX managed to (surprise) buy the dip and rally the market higher to close out the day. kuroda laughing 1 0
  • FOMC Statement was released yesterday and there was no mention of a possible rate hike in June, leading investors to believe that it is not a live meeting, thereby rallying the market. 
  • Bank of Japan last night did not do enough to impress investors and as a result, spooked the market into a sell-off in the futures. 
  • USD/JPY has dropped nearly 3% following the BOJ news. 
  • Despite a 5/10 cross over on the moving averages, SPX managed to recapture both MA's yesterday. 
  • A very slight increase in volume on SPY yesterday, but well below the average. 
  • Interestingly enough, SPY has not seen above average volume since February 11th - the day that the market bottomed from the sell-off. 
  • Head and shoulders pattern on SPX was significantly hampered following the FOMC Statement. It can still play out, but not as "picturesque" as it was heading into the day. 
  • VIX continues to struggle to break the down trend established off of the February highs. Tested the last three days and failed each time. Will be tested again today. 
  • A break below 2077 would break below the neckline of the 30 minute head and shoulders pattern
  • A break below 2073 would break below the lows of last week which hasn't happened in the last 11 weeks now. 
  • Advancers have been incredibly strong of late despite weak or minimal moves from the market as a whole. This is a rare phenomenon. 
  • Today the FOMC Statement comes out at 2pm eastern. Don't fall for the initial move that often results in a market head-fake. 
  • SPX has closed above the previous week's lows for 11 straight weeks. The record is 13 weeks - as you can see, we are in some rare air here, and the likelihood that it persists isn't very favorable. 
  • It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly. 
  • April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
  • Yellen's dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • Another last minute save by SPX to rally price from negative territory to positive in the final 30 minutes. nasdaq breaking
  • This is becoming the norm of late to spend the day in a weakened state only to rally in the final minutes. 
  • Massive head and shoulders pattern forming on the SPX 30 minute chart. It confirms on a break of 2077. 
  • SPX is wedged between the 5 and 10-day moving averages. You may see a downside crossover today as they are only 2 points apart. 
  • Apple (AAPL) reported earnings last night after the bell and missed expectations. As a result the Nasdaq continues to weaken. 
  • Nasdaq is by far the weakest of all the indices right now as it starting to roll over on the charts and now trading below the 20-day moving average. A break below 4808 would establish a lower low for the chart. 
  • Volume on SPY increased yesterday but still well below recent averages. 
  • Advancers have been incredibly strong of late despite weak or minimal moves from the market as a whole. This is a rare phenomenon. 
  • Today the FOMC Statement comes out at 2pm eastern. Don't fall for the initial move that often results in a market head-fake. 
  • SPX has closed above the previous week's lows for 10 straight weeks. The record is 13 weeks - as you can see, we are in some rare air here, and the likelihood that it persists isn't very favorable. 
  • A break below 2073 on SPX would end the streak. 
  • It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly. 
  • April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
  • Yellen's dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

Read more...

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small-ryan-malloryRyan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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