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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.1% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.2% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.4% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (10), Leading Indicators (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX broke out to and closed at new all-time highs yesterday. A big win for the bulls and a breakout of consolidation. 
  • Today's big event is the IPO of Alibaba. 
  • At this point the market is clearly in the bulls favor and with price breaking out of the short-term range, it is very much looking like we'll see another solid price advancement, though not as strong as the one off of the August lows. 
  • SPX just about overbought yet again. 
  • VIX continues to see the heavy selling by dropping another 4.9% to 12.03. 
  • SPY volume continues to be elevated - a strong sign for the bulls. 
  • The one troubling aspect of this market is that despite establishing new all-time highs, stocks in general are well off the their recent highs. In fact only 42% of stocks are trading above their 40-day moving average. 
  • While SPX chart has a bullish tilt to it, I would still show caution as stocks aren't nearly as healthy under the surface. 
  • SPX has established a new uptrend on the 30-minute chart. 
  • At the moment there is little to no fear in this market. That can always change, but no major themes in the market that can cause problems for it right now. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.4% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.7% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Housing Statrts (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Janet Yellen Speaks (8:45), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Whiplash price action yesterday that resulted ultimately in a small move for SPX. 
  • With the morning gap up, SPX has its sights set on breaking through 2007 and establishing new all-time highs today. 
  • The one troubling aspect of this market is that despite the market being right near all-time highs, stocks in general are well off the their recent highs. In fact only 39% of stocks are trading above their 40-day moving average. 
  • While SPX chart has a bullish tilt to it, I would still show caution as stocks aren't nearly as healthy under the surface. 
  • Volume has becoming significantly strong in the past two days. 
  • SPX has established a new uptrend on the 30-minute chart. 
  • VIX remained nearly unchanged at 12.65.
  • At the moment there is little to no fear in this market. That can always change, but no major themes in the market that can cause problems for it right now. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded -0.1% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Consumer Price Index (8:30), Current Account (8:30), Housing Index (10), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), FOMC Statement (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge day yesterday for the market as SPX rocketed back above broken support at 1987 and closed just below 2000. 
  • Today is the Fed Day, where they release the FOMC Statement at 2pm eastern. 
  • Under Janet Yellen the moves have not been overly significant. The outcome is anticlimactic to the buildup. 
  • Yesterday's rally was based primarily on a rumor that was published in regards to the Fed and what they will do with interest rates. 
  • I have a sneaky suspicion that we might be seeing a "buy-the-rumor & sell-the-news" scenario regarding the FOMC Statement. 
  • In fact with yesterday's move, it would seem to me that the market is pricing in perfection. So even if the Fed is slightly disappointing or not as dovish as they expected, the market will likely sell-off as a result. 
  • Be prepared for shakeouts after the statement is released. Most times it makes 1-2 sporadic moves initially before settling in on its true direction. 
  • Downward channel on the SPX 30-minute chart was broken yesterday. 
  • VIX got creamed by dropping 9.8% down to 12.73. 
  • September, so far is trading in a very similar pattern to July, except this time around it is an even tighter trading range. 
  • At the moment there is little to no fear in this market. That can always change, but no major themes in the market that can cause problems for it right now. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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