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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.3% higher.
  • European markets are trading 2.1% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.8% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Heavy gap up today after China issued a surprise rate cut. 
  • Don't add any new long positions until it becomes obvious that the bulls can hold on to the strength and not allow a gap fill to ensue. 
  • 10-day moving average continues to bring in the dip buyers. The last four times we have tested the 10-day, has led to heavy buying thereafter. 
  • Volume still remains below average. 
  • SPX 30-minute chart shows price moving out of recent consolidation. 
  • VIX dropped 2.7% to 13.58. Watch how weak the VIX is this morning for a gauge on how reliable this market rally should be today. 
  • If SPX breaks 2030 it would represent a break of key support and likely more weakness would follow. 
  • 5-day and 10-day moving average are converging which makes a break of both in one day much more possible and more significant too. 
  • Historically trend-lines that are steeper/greater than 45 degrees are nearly impossible to maintain over an extended period of time. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded flat..
  • European markets are trading 1.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.5% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Consumer Price Index (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (9:45), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10), Existing Home Sales (10), Leading Indicators (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Gap down to take place at the market open of some significance. The biggest question to be answered is whether the dip buyers come in and buy the dip off of the 10-day moving average as they have the last three times the MA was tested. 
  • If SPX breaks 2030 it would represent a break of key support and likely more weakness would follow. 
  • SPX action of late reminds me of the ensuing two days after it had made a new high on 9/19. Too early to say whether we are likely to see a heavy sell-off in the days ahead, but initial price reaction is the same. 
  • Volume slightly higher on SPY yesterday than what has been seen of late. 
  • VIX remained relatively unchanged at 13.96. 
  • FOMC Minutes had little to no effect on the market. 
  • Support on the 30-minute chart of SPX is at 2040. 
  • 5-day and 10-day moving average are converging which makes a break of both in one day much more possible and more significant too. 
  • Historically trend-lines that are steeper/greater than 45 degrees are nearly impossible to maintain over an extended period of time. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.3% lower.
  • European markets are trading flat.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
MBA Purchase Applications (7), Housing Starts (8:30), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), FOMC Minutes (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Key day for the market yesterday, as it broke out of a 6-day consolidation period and out of and above key rising support on SPX. 
  • In theory, SPX should be ready to begin the next leg higher on the index and even perhaps make a run towards 2100. However, I have seen plenty of times over the years where that initial breakout on a new rally opportunity quickly gets extinguished and the market sells-off instead. Look at the September highs as an example. 
  • However, you cannot front run this market. It has shown no willingness to breakdown and it therefore should not be shorted until then. 
  • Considering yesterday's rally, VIX barely moved yesterday after it managed to bounce hard off of the lows of the day finishing only 0.9% lower at 13.86. This does create some concerns heading into today. 
  • SPX continues to hold the 5-day moving average incredibly well, having not closed below it since 10/16.
  • 5-day and 10-day moving average are converging which makes a break of both in one day much more possible and more significant too. 
  • Volume continues to lessen on each of the last 5 trading sessions. 
  • SPX 30-minute chart remains bullish and looking to further move out of the recent consolidation. 
  • Historically trend-lines that are steeper/greater than 45 degrees are nearly impossible to maintain over an extended period of time. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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