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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% lower.
  • European markets are trading 1.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Employment Situation (8:30), Personal Income and Outlays (8:30), PMI Manufacturing Index (9:45), Consumer Sentiment (9:55), ISM Manufacturing Index (10), Construction Spending (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Extremely bearish day for the markets yesterday and one of the worst trading days of the year. 
  • Support levels across the board were broken. 
  • Trading range we had been trading in for the entire month was broken and price support at 1955 was violated. 
  • July represented the first negative trading month for the S&P 500 since January. 
  • The 50-day moving average was broken. 
  • The rising trend-line off of the April lows was broken. 
  • The rising trend-line off of the February lows was broken. 
  • Volume was very strong yesterday and panic drove the market's prices lower. 
  • The T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is reaching historical lows that almost always leads to a major bounce. 
  • While on the surface it may seem logical to get short on this market, the fact is, risk has exapanded greatly to the short-side and the risk of being caught in a dead cat bounce is very strong. 
  • VIX rose 27% to 16.95. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.1% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.8% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.4% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Employment Cost Index (8:30), Chicago PMI (9:45), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), Farm Prices (3)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Flat and doji candle day yesterday with no real reaction to the FOMC Statement.
  • This morning's weakness will challenge the box range that SPX has been trading in during the entire month. 
  • Watch price support at 1955, failure to hold it would break below the month long trading range. 
  • Portuguese banking problems are showing up in the news once again as the bank dropped 50% in price. This is the main news driver for today's weakness. 
  • With futures selling off as much as they are ahead of the open, look for a low of the day to be quickly established within the first hour of trading. If this low eventually is broken, that bodes very badly for the indices. 
  • Head and shoulders pattern forming on the 30-minute SPX chart. 
  • VIX rose a small bit to 13.38 yesterday. 
  • Gaps have rarely held in either direction lately. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.2% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.4% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
MBA Purchase Applications (7), ADP Employment Report (8:15), GDP (8:30), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Strong sell-off yesterday on SPX resulting in price coming back down to the current trend-line that begun off of the 4/14 lows. 
  • A close today below 1956 would push price below the box of consolidation and would be a bearish signal for the market. 
  • Indices are showing a strong gap up this morning, however, many gaps of late, in both directions have quickly been filled. 
  • FOMC Meeting today, which means the market will likely wait until after the statement is out at 2pm eastern before making any additional major moves. 
  • Also remember that the initial response following the FOMC announcement is usually a fake move. Some times there are as many as 2-3 fake moves that follow an FOMC announcement. 
  • SPX managed to lose the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The last time the 20-day moving average was lost, it quickly rebounded in a very strong manner the following day. 
  • Volume was about average. 
  • VIX was strong yesterday closing at 13.28.
  • SPX remains contained within the monthly range. 
  • The notion that we could push through 2000 on SPX, is being met with selling jitters. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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