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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.1% higher.
  • European markets are trading 1.6% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (9:45), Existing Home Sales (10), Leading Indicators (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge day for the market in terms of seeing the first signs of the bears being short-squeezed. The previous three days of the market rally, I didn't see any of this behavior unfold. 
  • Strong potential for additional upside, particularly if SPX can get back above 2064 and stay there. At that point a higher-high is formed and creates a significant problem for the bears
  • In three of the last four months we've seen the first half of the month trade noticeably lower, followed by a significant rally during the second half of the month to recover all or nearly all of the month's losses. The exception was the month of November.
  • By breaking the 2064 price level on SPX, the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart is in jeopardy of being nullified.
  • It's not wise to try and short a market bounce like we saw yesterday. Once the squeeze starts it can last days before bulls run out of ammunition.
  • SPX 30 minute chart continues to provide a series of consecutive higher-highs and higher-lows. Very healthy.
  • VIX dropped 13% down to 16.39, which is its lowest level of the year.
  • Volume was much higher than average - a strong sign for the market.
  • SPX broke above the down trend off of the December highs yesterday.
  • Perfect channel that has formed over the last two months that is worth watching going forward as Friday's bounce occurred right when it was tested. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.3% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.5% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Jobless Claims (8:30), FHFA House Price Index (9), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX poised to break above the down trend off of the December highs. The key price point is 2036. 
  • 2064 is the key price level for SPX to get back and above for the bulls. It would finally establish a higher-high and lead to a challenge of new all-time highs. 
  • Volume has noticeably tapered off some since the selling subsided, getting back to average levels. 
  • VIX dropped 5.2% down to 18.85. 
  • After confirming the inverse head and shoulders pattern, SPX 30 minute chart is sporting a nice series of higher-highs, and higher-lows. 
  • Price is riding the underside of the broken trend-line off of the October lows. 
  • Perfect channel that has formed over the last two months that is worth watching going forward as Friday's bounce occurred right when it was tested. 
  • On the daily chart, dating back to November, you have a dilapidated head and shoulders pattern that has emerged on SPX. Needs to break Friday's lows for it to confirm though. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.2% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
MBA Purchase Applications (7), Housing Starts (8:30), Redbook (8:55)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX saw dip buyers emerge in the early afternoon yesterday to wipe out the day's losses and finish in the green for the day. 
  • Perfect channel that has formed over the last two months that is worth watching going forward as Friday's bounce occurred right when it was tested. 
  • However, since making new all time highs in late December, SPX is still putting in lower-highs and lower-lows. But the depth of these moves have been limited. 
  • On the daily chart, dating back to November, you have a dilapidated head and shoulders pattern that has emerged on SPX. Needs to break Friday's lows for it to confirm though. 
  • VIX dropped another 5.1% down to 19.89. 
  • Massive inverse head and shoulders pattern on SPX 30 minute chart that has confirmed. Very bullish. 
  • Volume was average yesterday - a drop off from recent days. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) actually ran counter to the market rally by dropping 4.6% down to 40.89. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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