Technical Outlook:

  • Bulls managed to string together two successful days of trading that will now put price right below the declining trend-line on the S&P 500 (SPX) downward trend-line off of the all-time highs that was achieved back in August. high score
  • Volume on the SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) actually increased yesterday and was well above recent averages. 
  • Yesterday's rally was significant for the bulls because it allowed for price on SPX to climb back over the 5 and 50-day moving averages
  • Crude (/CL) rallied strong yesterday finishing 5% higher on a news of a possible cap on production. United States Oil Fund (USO) attempting to break the downtrend today off of the August highs. In doing so, it would break out of a nice triangle pattern going back to August as well. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart shows a nice series of higher-lows following the 9/12 bottom, but needs to still establish a higher high too. 
  • The same minute chart sporting an inverse head and shoulders pattern going back to late August. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) looks to test the rising trend-line off of the August lows today. There has been some selling when this trend-line has been tested over the last two months, including the large sell-off on 9/9. 
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) is on the verge testing its all-time highs again. 
  • The number of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average has increased by 22% yesterday, with 53% of stocks now above it. 

My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • The whipsaw price action in S&P 500 (SPX) continued yesterday with a hard bounce following two days of selling. bulls making push towards all time highs bullish engulfing candle pattern
  • The price action is sporadic and unpredictable at this juncture. Very topsy-turvy - Last Thursday you had a bullish break above recent consolidation. Following Monday's price action, you had a bear flag pattern playing out on the daily chart and after Tuesday's close you had a bullish engulfing candle pattern. To say the least, there are strong opposing forces at work in this market. 
  • The natural inclination of this market is to engage in a pullback and relieve some of the recent price pressures. With the election just around the corner, the Federal Reserve is operating in a political capacity and making decisions that will keep the market from selling off. 
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) was by far the strongest of the indices with a move back above its breakout level, while holding on to the 5 and 20-day moving averages and recapturing its 5-day MA. 
  • SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) volume was at recent average levels but below Monday's showing. 
  • 30 minute chart of SPX is very choppy with a slight trend higher over the last two weeks. 
  • Sharp reversal on the CBOE Market Volatility Index (CBOE) yesterday with a 10% decline that took price down to 13.10. Looks to test the uptrend off of the August lows again. 
  • Despite the market being near its all-time highs, only 43% of stocks are trading above their 40-day moving average. Quite low. 
  • There are lots of headlines battling for supremacy right now: Oil & Iran production output, the debates, and Deutsche Bank (DB) stability. 
  • United States Oil Fund (USO) is looking at a test of the rising trend-line off of the February lows. Currently that trend-line is sitting on the $9.95 level. 

My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • Big move for the S&P 500 (SPX) yesterday, as Monday's sell-off took price back below the 5, 10 and 20-day moving averages.crazy market price action 
  • Watch the rising trend-line off of the February lows on SPX as a test looms at 2124 area. 
  • SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) volume saw an increase yesterday, and came in at above average levels. 
  • SPY leaves an unfilled gap from yesterday's sell-off. 
  • At this point, I would expect at least a retest of the 2120 price level. 
  • Last night's Presidential debates saw a sharp reversal higher in the overnight futures (at least until the European markets opened). Most will point at the rally and say that it is due to Wall Street believing that Clinton won the debate. However, based on my observations of futures, the rally started almost as soon as the debate started. I believe it was a pre-planned function of the Algos to rally the market regardless. I would not make much of the rally during the debates as being anything more. 
  • There are lots of headlines battling for supremacy right now: Oil & Iran production output, the debates, and Deutsche Bank (DB) stability. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart is exhibiting a nice bearish island reversal pattern. A break below 2140 would likely see a further decline to test support at 2120. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) saw a significant pop yesterday rising 18% to 14.5. A push over 15 would likely see a move back over 20 again at some point in the near future. 
  • Crude (/CL) is looking to reverse its gains from yesterday with renewed possibility of an eventual move back down towards the August lows. 

My Trades:

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small-ryan-malloryRyan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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