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Technical Outlook:

  • Heavy sell-off yesterday completely changed the nature of the market. 
  • SPX broke back down and below key support at 2120, which now becomes resistance again. 
  • The breakout above the 2120 resistance level two weeks ago is now labeled a 'head-fake'. 
  • The trend-line off of the February lows was broken yesterday, and today the key trend-line to watch is the one off of the March lows at 2078. 
  • There is obviously the potential for a bounce today, but I would be careful with piling up any significant amount of long positions today, as it could very easily turn into a dead cat bounce and the market resumes its selling to the downside. 
  • Oil showing signs of breaking down again and could weigh heavily on price action of the broader market as well. 
  • VIX popped 16% yesterday - all the way up to 14.06 
  • The most mesmerizing chart of the day came from the T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) where it saw a 22% drop all the way down to 39%
  • SPX 30 minute chart doesn't reveal much to glean from as it just continues to be mired in choppiness of late. 
  • Volume on SPY was notably stronger then anything we have seen in the past few weeks and well above average too. 
  • We still have a higher-high in place currently with SPX, and would need to break 2067 in order to form a new lower-low. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • For the third time in four trading sessions, SPX finished lower on the day. 
  • Friday was a light volume day due to the holiday weekend, but the selling in the final half hour of trading was very disturbing for traders as the market fell about 5 points and wiped out the day's the minimal gains on the day. 
  • If SPX breaks 2120-2122, it could quickly see the selling accelerate and result in a sell-off that takes price back down to the trend-line that started off of the February lows. The currently level of support for that trend-line is 2110. 
  • VIX remained nearly unchanged closing 0.2% higher at 12.13.
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average is showing signs of rolling over with a 6.3% drop down to 50%.
  • We still have a higher-high in place currently with SPX, and would need to break 2067 in order to form a new lower-low. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart shows a great deal of consolidation over the last five trading sessions. Watch for a violation of this range on either side to determine short-term market direction going forward. 
  • Weekly chart of SPX shows a market in the early stages of a new leg higher. However, there is also a maturing bearish wedge that could be threatened if SPX manages to rally into the 2160's-70's. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • SPY yesterday managed to engulf the previous day's candle body. 
  • SPX managed again to show strength and a willingness to buy when the 5-day moving average was tested. 
  • Volume on SPY is dramatically weakening this week due the holiday weekend ahead, and I suspect it will be even worse today. 
  • Watch 2107 - the trend-line off of the February lows of SPX. If that price level breaks, so does the rising support level. 
  • Massive drop in VIX yesterday which exhibited a massive breakdown below the key support level that was rising off of the July lows. Dropped 6% down to 12.11. 
  • Since last Friday, the T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) has really struggled to find any traction. It is a rare site to see SPX trading at new all-time highs, and T2108 only at 53%. 
  • Oil has shown far greater volatility in the past few days then what we had previously seen over the past two months. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart has consolidated over the past three days. 
  • Weekly chart of SPX shows a market in the early stages of a new leg higher. However, there is also a maturing bearish wedge that could be threatened if SPX manages to rally into the 2160's-70's. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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