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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.2% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading flat ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
MBA Purchase Applications (7), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX rose for the 10th time in the past 13 sessions. 
  • First time ever for SPX to close above 2000. 
  • Hitting the 2000 mark on SPX has spurred on lots of discussion about whether stocks are in a major bubble here....of course they are!
  • SPX 30-minute chart is showing some distribution, and the potential for a head and shoulders pattern
  • Regardless, the uptrend remains firmly intact. While a pullback is probably necessary here, you have to wait for it to happen, not front run it. 
  • VIX continues its sell-off going back down to 11.63 yesterday. 
  • Volume continues to rapidly drop off this week. 
  • The five-day moving average represents a perfect trajectory of the market's direction at the moment. 
  • A lot of nontraditional traders are starting to get interested in this stock market which usually starts to show that there is too much "froth" in the market. 
  • Continue to tighten stops and take profits where you can on positions ensuring that you don't get caught with your pants down if the market suddenly sells-off. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.5% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.5% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Durable Goods Orders (8:30), Redbook (8:55), FHFA House Price Index (9), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9), Consumer Price Index (10), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX tagged 2000 for the first time ever, but after doing so retreated some in price. 
  • Dealing with large milestones or round numbers can often times create a form of resistance of their own not seen on the charts. 
  • SPX has risen 9 out of the last 12 days. 
  • Volume was extremely light yesterday - equal to what would be seen on a 1/2 day of holiday trading. 
  • Some signs creeping in that this market is getting overheated somewhat and may need to either pullback or consolidate. 
  • However that doesn't mean that will actually happen, and front running the move is a futile exercise. 
  • The five-day moving average represents a perfect trajectory of the market's direction at the moment. 
  • A lot of nontraditional traders are starting to get interested in this stock market which usually starts to show that there is too much "froth" in the market. 
  • Continue to tighten stops and take profits where you can on positions ensuring that you don't get caught with your pants down if the market suddenly sells-off. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.4% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.8% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.5% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30), PMI Services Flash (9:45), New Home Sales (10), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Friday was a cooling off period for the market while consolidating above the previous SPX highs.
  • Today's morning gap up puts the market at the cusp of SPX 2000. May see some profit taking at that number. 
  • The five-day moving average represents a perfect trajectory of the market's direction at the moment. 
  • Volume was on par with what I've seen out of SPX over the last four days. 
  • Overbought and overextended are two words you'll hear a lot of from people in the coming days. 
  • A lot of nontraditional traders are starting to get interested in this stock market which usually starts to show that there is too much "froth" in the market. 
  • Still, the market keeps rising, and the trades must still point to the long side as there is little reason to be short the market for any reason at all. 
  • Continue to tighten stops and take profits where you can on positions ensuring that you don't get caught with your pants down if the market suddenly sells-off. 
  • Jackson Hole was a non-event on Friday. 
  • After an 88 point rally in the last 11 days, SPX 30 minute chart has become extremely stretched. 
  • At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking in the market, but yet, the market can always rally much, much more than you could ever expect. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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