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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.1% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.9% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.4% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Consumer Price Index (8:30), Redbook (8:55), FHFA House Price Index (9), Existing Home Sales (10), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Dip buyers came in again to rally SPX off of the rising trend-line that begun off of the April lows. 
  • If the bears are going to take control of the market they need to push price below the trend-line at 1959. 
  • Once again a test of the 20-day moving average intraday spurred on a intraday reversal. 
  • Volume was extremely light yesterday - half of what we have seen in the previous two trading sessions. 
  • VIX remains volatile, this time rising 6.2% to 12.81. However, the trading range has shrunk each of the last two sessions. 
  • SPX continues to trade in a month long range for July. A break above all-time highs would change this. 
  • Bulls still hold the advantage in this market. The bears managed yet again to not seize the opportunity to push this market lower with the geopolitical headlines facing the market. 
  • For the bears, a close below 1952 is very real and possible. If broken, it will confirm a short-term double top in the index. 
  • Additional key support levels for the SPX to hold in the future is 1944 and 1925. 
  • Very real chance that we may be entering into an extended period of consolidation between the 1950's and 1980's. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% lower.. 
  • European markets are trading 0.4% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Strong bounce out of SPX on Friday recovering much of the losses from the Thursday sell-off. 
  • Volume was very strong on Friday and increasing the likelihood that the move was more than just a dead-cat bounce. 
  • SPX has regained the 10-day and 20-day moving average. The former doesn't mean much, but overall the 20-day moving average has been a source of strength for the SPX to rally around. 
  • For the bears, a close below 1952 is very real and possible. If broken, it will confirm a short-term double top in the index. 
  • Additional key support levels for the SPX to hold in the future is 1944 and 1925. 
  • Very real chance that we may be entering into a period of consolidation between the 1950's and 1980's. 
  • Right now the buy-the-dip mentality still runs strong in this market, and this morning's weakness could easily be bought up. 
  • VIX came crashing down more than 17% to 12.06 on Friday. 
  • Headline risk creeping into the market with the Malaysian airliner being shot down in Ukraine airspace and Israel's ground offensive in gaza. Neither of which I think will have an extended impact on the market. 
  • If 1944 breaks SPX will have put in a lower-low and that is bearish
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% lower.. 
  • European markets are trading 0.3% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Consumer Sentiment (9:55), Leading Indicators (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Heavy sell-off yesterday and the first time in over three months that the SPX has made a move of more than 1% in either direction. 
  • As a result volatility spiked through the roof 32%
  • Potential for a short-term double top has emerged on SPX. A push below 1952 today would confirm this. 
  • Volume was very heavy yesterday as would be expected on a day like we had. 
  • Lots of potential headline risk creeping into the market with the Malaysian airliner being shot down in Ukraine airspace and Israel's ground offensive in gaza. 
  • If these events are more like one-time events, and don't spiral into additional news stories, than the likelihood that the bulls will buy the dip is very real. 
  • The trend-line off of the April lows was tested yesterday and held (see below).
  • If 1944 breaks SPX will have put in a lower-low and that is bearish
  • 10 and 20-day moving averages both broken yesterday. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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