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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.3% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.5% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.7% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Jobless Claims (8:30), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30), FHFA House Price Index (9), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (9:45), Leading Indicators (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Very concerning rejection yesterday on SPX that occurred right at the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. 
  • Yesterday also formed a bearish piercing pattern. 
  • Most concerning though was how the market sold off of its highs and finished right at the lows of the day. 
  • This morning there is some strength in the pre-market, but should be viewed with some skepticism until it can break yesterday's highs of the day. 
  • This market is wild and erratic - if you are playing it with large position sizes, you going to find it very difficult to succeed. 
  • With yesterday's action I closed out some of my more volatile plays and kept the longs that performed well under difficult trading circumstances. 
  • SPX 5 minute chart has a well defined head and shoulders pattern that will likely be nullified at the open. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart yesterday was compromised when it failed to hold the trend-line off of the 10/15 lows.
  • VIX popped 11.2% to 17.87 yesterday. 
  • It would not surprise me one bit if we saw some consolidation in the current bounce. Holding the recent gains or only allowing for a minimal pullback is absolutely key here. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 2.2% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.3% higher.
  • US futures are trading flat ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
MBA Purchase Applications (7), Consumer Price Index (8:30), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • The biggest day of the bounce occurred yesterday where there was truly a massive squeeze of the shorts. 
  • In the process, SPX recaptured the 20 and 200 day moving averages
  • The bounce has represented a 61.8% retracement from the September highs. 
  • SPX managed to push through 1920 which I thought would be extremely difficult. 
  • Europe buying Italian bonds led to the massive rally. 
  • VIX dropped another 13.5% down to 16.07. Wednesday it was above 31 at one point. A huge shift. 
  • As the bounce continues to proceed higher and higher, it puts the odds of the bears re-claiming this market lower and lower. 
  • It would not surprise me one bit if we saw some consolidation in the current bounce. Holding the recent gains or only allowing for a minimal pullback is absolutely key here. 
  • Careful with trying to jump in front of this market to the short side. The market can bounce much higher than one would ever think possible. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart still shows consecutive higher-highs and higher-lows.  
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.2% lower.
  • European markets are trading 1.2% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.5% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Redbook (8:55), Existing Home Sales (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • The current bounce is playing out in textbook fashion. Typical market bounces string together multiple days of strong upward momentum. 
  • Today SPX challenges the 200-day moving average after closing just a shade above the 50-day moving average yesterday. 
  • VIX dropped 15.6% down to 18.57, which puts the VIX back below the 20 threshold. 
  • Getting price above 1898 yesterday was key for SPX which makes a push towards 1920 all the more likely. 
  • Careful with trying to jump in front of this market to the short side. The market can bounce much higher than one would ever think possible. 
  • News out of the European Central Bank bought Italian covered bonds causing SPX to spike 30 points off of the lows of the day.  
  • SPX 30 minute chart still shows consecutive higher-highs and higher-lows.  
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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