Technical Outlook:

  • Essentially the bulls counted their chickens before they hatched yesterday. Brexit voting did not go the way they expected despite rallying SPX 28 points yesterday. 
  • SPX looking at one of the bigger, historical gap downs that it has ever seen. 
  • Essentially today's gap down going to put us back near or below the lows from last week. 
  • To really get the sell-off going 1) break 2040 - it marks the bottom of 2-year range that is extremely difficult to break and the closing price of the double top pattern that has been forming over the last three months. 2) Break 2025, which is the intraday lows of that double top pattern, just to make sure you don't leave any doubt. 
  • The 5, 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages will be shattered at the market open. Possible if the selloff tests overnight lows, that SPX breaks below the 200-day moving average as well. 
  • SPY volume increased yesterday and was well above average. I'd expect it to be significant above average today. 
  • VIX chart should break back above 20 today and see an extreme move in the index today.
  • Don't try and be a hero today - take what the market is willing to give you don't force trades for the sake of seeing some action. 

My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • For the third straight day, SPX reversed off of its highs of the day, with yesterday being the strongest instance yet. brexit
  • Interestingly enough, the VIX 14.6% yesterday to 21.17 - a massive move for such a small decline. 
  • This is in part due to the fears surrounding a British vote to leave the European Union today. 
  • However odds makers overnight have lessened the chances of a leave to 5 to 1 overnight. 
  • Polls are already open. Results will start being reported at 7:30pm eastern, and the final tally will be known at roughly 2am (eastern). 
  • Expect continued volatility from the market. 
  • If there is a vote to leave the (i.e. Brexit) then the markets will be rocked hard tomorrow, especially since price action has been favorable towards a vote of "remain" so far this week. 
  • SPX 30-minute chart has a double top that has formed, though, that will be broken to the upside this morning with current strength that is seen. 
  • The  20-day moving average continues to offer resistance
  • The VIX is currently up  47% over the last twenty days, yet SPX is UP 0.45% during that same time. The last time and only time that has ever happened before is 1999. 
  • Also, the market has not moved down 1% in more than 53 days. The longest streak since the summer of 2014. 
  • On the daily SPY/SPX there is a massive double top forming. No confirmation yet, as it would have to drop below 2025 in order to do so. 
  • The choppiness and unpredictable nature of the market between 2040 and 2138 continues with price just bouncing and dropping every which way. 
  • I believe, at this point, profits have to be taken aggressively, and avoid the tendency to let the profits run - the market is in a very choppy range that has mired stock price for the past two years. Unless it breaks out of it and onto new all-time highs, then taking profits aggressively is absolutely important. 

My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • SPX has day four of one of the most dull dead cat bounces that you'll ever see. With that said, the sell-off that preceded it was quite dull in its own right, with one of the most shallow five day pullbacks you'll ever see. brexit stock market crash swing trading ideas
  • The volume continues to melt away for a third straight day and coming in well below recent averages. 
  • While the 10-day moving average was recaptured by SPX yesterday, it is nonetheless still having troubles with the middle band (20-day moving average) as price saw a rejection right around that area yesterday. 
  • For the bulls the objective remains to get price back above the 2100 level as fast as possible. 
  • Brexit remains a stretch, even if the "Leave" camp wins the vote. As it would still take a lot for the 'powers-that-be' to actually facilitate the exit. 
  • Oddsmakers put a "Leave" vote at 3-to-1.
  • 30 minute chart of SPX shows the start of a broken trend-line going back to 6/16. 
  • On the daily SPY/SPX there is a massive double top forming. No confirmation yet, as it would have to drop below 2025 in order to do so. 
  • VIX continues to bounce off of support and despite the market being up yesterday, VIX finished with a slight finish higher, but a nice bounce off of the lows of the day. 
  • 2085 continues to offer support/resistance on the daily SPX, but the last two times it has had it as resistance, SPX has simply gapped over it, as it did yesterday. 
  • With so many assuming that a Brexit will not occur, the market is therefore pricing this in already. As a result, you have to wonder, regardless of the outcome, if the Brexit vote will be a "sell-the-news" event. 
  • The main objective for bears at this point has to be to push price back below 2050 from last week. 
  • The choppiness and unpredictable nature of the market between 2040 and 2138 continues with price just bouncing and dropping every which way. 
  • I believe, at this point, profits have to be taken aggressively, and avoid the tendency to let the profits run - the market is in a very choppy range that has mired stock price for the past two years. Unless it breaks out of it and onto new all-time highs, then taking profits aggressively is absolutely important. 

My Trades:

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small-ryan-malloryRyan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida. More >>

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