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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 2.3% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.4% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Factory Orders (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Another significant plunge yesterday sending the market down another 1.3%. 
  • There is some support that may be found at 1920 today on SPX should it continue its free-fall. 
  • Russell at a year long key support level at 1083. 
  • It is dangerous to get short at these levels as there is a strong possibility of a market bounce, considering how oversold the market is. 
  • T2108 measures the % of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average. Currently that number sits at 17 which is the lowest its been since June of 2013. Historically, this is the zone where bounces take place at. 
  • Volume the last two days on SPX has been huge. 
  • Rising trend-line off of the December 2012 lows was broken yesterday. 
  • Despite the major sell-off yesterday, VIX was only up 2.5% to 16.71.
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:


Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 10-2-14

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.8% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.8% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
MBA Purchase Applications (7), ADP Employment Report (8:15), PMI Manufacturing Index (9:45), ISM Manufacturing Index (10), Construction Spending (10), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • For a fourth consecutive day, SPX has held the rising trend-line off of the December 2012 lows. This bodes well, but have yet to see price move off of the trend line which still puts it at risk of being broken. 
  • The 5-day moving average is also providing daily resistance for SPX. 
  • Volume was strong yesterday, but only due to it being end of month/quarter. 
  • Stocks are becoming notably oversold. 
  • VIX rose 2% to 16.30
  • SPX 30-minute chart continues to show signs of a base forming. 
  • First day of the trading month historically has been a bullish month, but the in August and September they were both down. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.0% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.6% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Redbook (8:55), S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10), State Street Investor Confidence (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge rally off of the lows yesterday resulting in a 75% recovery. 
  • Rally occurred off of the trend-line off of the December 2012 lows. 
  • Also managed to reclaim the 50-day moving average as well. 
  • SPX resulted in a hammer candle today and a strong potential for a bounce higher today. 
  • However, the price action is still below key resistance which is why I've remained bearish at this point, but that bearishness is on thin ice at this point. 
  • VIX rose 7.6% to 15.98 yesterday. 
  • Higher-low on the SPX 30-minute chart, and the potential for a base that could be developing. 
  • SPX is looking at a possible negative month - the second such month in the last three months. 
  • The rather large swings in price action on all the major indices indicates that we are not dealing with a healthy market at the moment. This is a time to preserve capital or at the very least lessen one's long exposure. 
  • There is very little support between current price and the August lows at 1904.
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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