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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded flat.
  • European markets are trading 0.6% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
MBA Purchase Applications (7), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), FOMC Minutes (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Another strong day for the the bulls as they have managed to eliminate all the losses from the 7/31 sell-off. 
  • At this point, the story becomes whether the bulls will break all-time highs and 2000. 
  • The notion of this being a dead cat bounce has become nullified. 
  • SPX is now well into overbought territory. 
  • Back July, the story was constantly whether SPX could break through 1985 - it was a strong level of resistance. Today we get to see if that still holds true. 
  • SPX has rallied 77 points in the last 8 days - it wouldn't be surprising here if we consolidated or saw a slight pullback here. 
  • Volume was less than average
  • VIX dropped 0.9% down to 12.21. 
  • Strong series of higher-highs and higher lows on SPX 30-minute chart. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.6% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
ICSC-Goldman Sales (7:45), Consumer Price Index (8:30), Housing Starts (8:30), Redbook (8:55)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Hard bounce yesterday that took price through the resistance area in the 1950's. 
  • Yesterday confirmed that the current move is much more than a dead cat bounce and should be expected to make another run at SPX all-time highs. 
  • Right now SPX is back in the consolidation zone that SPX was stuck in during the entire month of July. 
  • 50-day moving average was reclaimed yesterday after struggling with it on Friday. 
  • Volume was about average
  • SPX back in overbought territory. 
  • VIX dropped another 5.2% down to 12.32 yesterday. 
  • It doesn't seem to me that there has been a significant short squeeze intraday in this market recovery. The bounce has been fairly orderly. Not a lot of panic by the bears trying to exit their short positions in mass. 
  • Inverse head and shoulders pattern that I mentioned Thursday is playing out perfectly so far on the SPX 30 minute chart. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded flat.
  • European markets are trading 1.0% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.6% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Housing Market Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Wild day of trading on Friday. After a wild sell-off on the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the market managed to recover and settle just above the 1954 key resistance level. 
  • It doesn't seem to me that there has been a significant short squeeze intraday in this market recovery. The bounce has been fairly orderly. Not a lot of panic by the bears trying to exit their short positions in mass. 
  • SPX struggled and failed to break above the 50-day moving average on Friday. It is set today, to gap above it. 
  • As SPX pushes into the 1960's today, it becomes more and more likely that the bears are losing their grip on this market and more probable that the market will eventually make new all time highs yet again. 
  • The bears will need to fill today's gap and push this market lower if it truly wants to keep this market from rallying away from them. 
  • Some of the action on Friday, and particularly the volume, can be attributed to options expiration day. 
  • VIX rose 5.9% to 13.15 on Friday. 
  • Inverse head and shoulders pattern that I mentioned Thursday is playing out perfectly so far on the SPX 30 minute chart. 
  • Gaps above significant levels of resistance is fairly common and often a good sign that the market intends to market much higher going forward.  
  • A move below 1928 would complicate things greatly for the bulls. 
  • Ultimately, the main goal for the bears going forward should be to get price back below 1904. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

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ryan1Ryan (@shareplanner) specializes in swing trading strategies and is the founder of SharePlanner which he created to help and teach others on how to trade stocks better using multiple approaches and time frames. Each day you can count on Ryan to provide his trading advice as well as transparency in every trade that he makes. Ryan Mallory resides in Central Florida with a wife of seven years as well as one lively son. More >>

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