by Ryan Mallory

Bull market opens the floodgates for the longs

I know there a re a lot of shorts out there today that are breaking monitors, keyboards and mouses. This is the problem with trying to frong run reversals. It is a deadly strategy. Stop it, don't do it. I hate this market to. It is propped up by the fed, and in my opinion is so far away from being a free market it is isn't even funny. 

But when it comes to your capital, this is not the time to prove a point. Saddle up and just go long. 

Just in case though you are going to be stubborn about it, I've included a short setup for you too. 

by Ryan Mallory

NCAA March Madness Champ: Coach

It didn't take long, but once Coach grabbed the lead early on, he never let go, picking an amazing 45 out of 63 matchups in the NCAA College Basketball Tourney. 

His 129 points, to put it in perspective, puts him well above the 95th percentile for all the brackets. Out of the millions of brackets submitted it only took being right on 47 of the matchups to get in the top-10 whihc means Coach wasn't too far from that mark either. 

For his incredible performance, Coach wins a free copy of my two-hour Swing-Trading Course that is valued at $99.95. 

Sadly though, my grip on fantasy sports has hit a major snag as Coach finally stopped me from being a two-time defending champion. At least I can still claim to be Fantasy Football Champ for 2012. 

by Ryan Mallory

Not looking to add shorts yet to the portfolio

Here's today's LiveCharts Video going over your stocks, my stocks, and the market in general.

by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading 1.2% higher.
• Asian markets traded 0.4% higher.
• US futures are slightly higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), FOMC Minutes (9am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Treasury Budget (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• We managed to break out yet again (above 1564), but well off of the day's highs after an afternoon sell-off. 
• Volume on an up day was stronger than what we have seen of late. 
• The potential for a short-term double-top exists if we can not break above last week's highs. 
• The 10 & 20 day moving averages offer very little value recently. 
• A pullback to 1538 would tell the lower trend line of the rising channel. 
• We ended the "Christmas Light" trading from the previous 14-days of trading. 
• VIX back inside of the 12's. 
• The Bollinger Bands are likely to restrict any significant moves, but should also start expending more as price movements upward become more aggressive. 
• Be careful of holding stocks that are overextended in their price movements. Best way to determine this is by using Bollinger Bands and monitoring the stock's behavior once it get's outside the upper band. 
• Typically I sell a stock if historically, it tends to sell off once it goes outside the upper band. 
• Any close below 1538, would breakdown the market below the consolidation level and usher in a new wave of bearishness.
• Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
• Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
• Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

by Ryan Mallory

Rockwell Automation (ROK) breaking out after short-term double-bottom

Stock: Rockwell Automation (ROK)

Long or Short: Long

Entry: $87.75

Stop-Loss: $84.55

by Ryan Mallory

Reversal Indicator shows any pullback will be small

Even though I view the economy to be a royal mess and in my personal opinion and my belieft that the true value of the market should be no more than 2/3's of current value since the current value of the market is only as a result of the faith and backing of the Fed money machines, I cannot allow my personal opinion of the market distract me from what the market is actually doing, and right now, that does not include moving lower. 

I feel quite comfortable, as long as we continue to see the dip buyers flood the market with each pullback opportunity to continue buying this market and adding new positions and plan to do so going forward until we break below 1538 on the S&P 500. 

Here is the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator.

by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
• Asian markets traded 0.7% higher.
• US futures are slightly higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Wholesale Trade (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• The way the market is shaping up at the open, we should see price push through 1564 on the SPX and re-attempt to break out of consolidation and to the upside. again. 
• The Bollinger Bands are likely to restrict any significant moves, but should also start expending more as price movements upward become more aggressive. 
• A finish in the green today would break the 'Christmas Lights' scenario over the past 14 trading days where we alternate between red and green. 
• Be careful of holding stocks that are overextended in their price movements. Best way to determine this is by using Bollinger Bands and monitoring the stock's behavior once it get's outside the upper band. 
• Typically I sell a stock if historically, it tends to sell off once it goes outside the upper band. 
• VIX sold off from its highs yesterday continuously throughout the day.
• Volume was below average, as has been much of the case during this period of consolidation. 
• If we are to experience a significant sell-off today, watch the 1532 level which represents the upward rising channel underneath the price action as well as the 50-day moving average. 
• Any close below 1538, would breakdown the market below the consolidation level and usher in a new wave of bearishness.
• On Friday, this level was tested and it held. 
• Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
• Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
• Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

by Ryan Mallory

Christmas in April...

Quick Glance at the Market Heat Map and Industries

Notables:

• Not a clean day for the technology sector
• Utilities and Conglomerates were solid. 
• Banks and materials, outside of a couple big names, held their own. 

Be sure to check out my latest swing trades and overall past performance Read more...

by Ryan Mallory

Mastercard (MA) retraces for a nice entry (SODA)

Stock: Mastercard (MA)

Long or Short: Long

Entry: $531.40

Stop-Loss: $512.95

by Ryan Mallory

Trading opportunities to keep in the back pocket

My bias in this market is still to the upside, and now that we got a bit of a pullback on Friday, there should be some more room overhead for the market to run and also buy some stocks that are off of their highs. 

With that said, you need to be prepared at all times for changes in this market. Which, if you are not keeping a separate list of possible short setups that you can take advantage of when the time comes, then you need to copy the list of my own that I have provided below. 

The three that lead the pack are:

Ocwen Financial (OCN) which has formed a double-top formation of late and ready to push lower.

Valero Energy (VLO) continues to be one of my favorites with a head and shoulders pattern where it has retraced back to the neckline. 

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) solid down trend in place, and retesting the falling channel for the third time, which could very easily lead to a much large washout in the stock.