by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading 0.6% higher.
• Asian markets traded 0.9% higher.
• US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• A nice rebound from the previous day's selling, which looks to continue into today. 
• Consolidation continues to be the theme on the daily. We need to see either a break to the upside of 1563, or a break to the downside of 1538 to determine the market's next move. 
• Recent consolidation has also helped with the market's overbought readings by pulling off of them some. 
• Volume continues to remain steady over the past week and a half of trading. 
• Dead-cat bounces, like some may determine Friday to be, have really been non-existent of late. Once they bounce, they just keep going higher, no true reversals that takes us lower than the previous lows reached. 
• We have seen the volume flow in much stronger on the sell-offs then on the days when the market rallies.
• VIX is hovering in the 13's. 
• I don't recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time. 
• Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
• Also the amount of margin being used to buy stocks are at levels that historically have led to notable reversals in the market. 
• Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

by Ryan Mallory

I have lived in Florida all my life, and never heard of Florida Gulf Coast University

Quick Glance at the Market Heat Map and Industries

Notables:

• Stocks outside of the S&P 500 did not look this good.
• Tech still continues to lag and don't show nearly the amount of bullishness as the Dow and S&P 500
• Services were on fire.  

Be sure to check out my latest swing trades and overall past performance Read more...

by Ryan Mallory

Swing-Trading Long List, much shorter and selective than my short watch-list

One thing that I am noticing with this market despite it being up close to 10 points as of this post, is that there isn't a lot of stocks following the rally. Instead there are a lot of individual stocks languishing while the SPX pushes closer to all time highs. 

There are some out there that I really like though on this list. The first one is a trade that I took yesterday in Goldcorp (GG) which has formed an extremely nice base and looks ready to push higher in the days ahead as well as start a brand new uptrend. 

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) while I am no fan of the actual product, I do think that they have a nice opportunity to break above some major long-term resistance formed in March of 2012. 

Finally, Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS), has some very nice consolidation after a strong runup and may finally be ready to blaze a trail to new highs once it can effectlively cross the $45 mark. 

by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading 0.2% higher.
• Asian markets traded -0.9% lower.
• US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• SPX had its biggest sell-off yesterday since 2/25. 
• We continue to see the volume flow in much stronger on the sell-offs then on the days when the market rallies.
• At this point, in the short-term price action on the SPX suggests we are in more of a range bound market than it is trending in any direction. 
• For that to change look for a break of 1538 or 1563. 
• Yesterday brought us off of short-term overbought levels for the first time since 3/4.
• VIX managed to get back up to 14 yesterday. 
• I don't recommend using dead cat bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions.
• Market is starting to become rumor driven yet again - this time surrounding the country of Cyprus.
• The nearest  short-term support level for this market lies at 1514. 
• Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
• Also the amount of margin being used to buy stocks are at levels that historically have led to notable reversals in the market. 
• Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

by Ryan Mallory

UPDATE: Emad was our winner, simply for following my @shareplanner twitter account. We'll do this again shortly so be ready for the next contest giveaway. 

I haven't done one of these in a while but it is about time that we get the giveaways rolling again. 

This time around, I am giving away my Swing-Trading course for Free. 

And it is easy to enter, and you actually have better odds of winning, much better than winning that office pool with the bracket that you filled out. 

There are multiple ways to participate:  

• By following me or one of the other SharePlanner Traders on Twitter
• Liking our Facebook page
• Posting to our Forum
• Leaving a review
• Or as simple as leaving a comment on one of our posts. 

There's no excuse... jump into the easiest raffle giveaway you've ever been apart of, and just maybe you'll go home with my 2 hour video on Swing-Trading, worth $100!

by Ryan Mallory

The typical look on the face of a trader after each quarter...

Quick Glance at the Market Heat Map and Industries

Notables:

• Nothing, absolutely nothing in the financials managed to find green pestures.
• Industrials were a disaster.
• I doubt traders expected Yahoo (YHOO) to be the stand-alone green spot in Tech. 

Be sure to check out my latest swing trades and overall past performance Read more...

by Ryan Mallory

Today's Swing-Trade Long Setups: 

Long: Goldcorp (GG)

Long: Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)

by Ryan Mallory

Rachel Fox's new lead role is to act like a trader

Back in the 90's there was an experiment done with a monkey throwing darts randomly at a wall with a bunch of stock names. Which ever one the dart landed on, that stock was bought. The success during this tech-bubble era was impressive as he managed to out perform the market handedly. 

Since March 2009, the market has risen about 120% off of those lows that were formed, due mainly to the Federal Reserve's Bernanke, Quantitative Easing, Bank Bailouts, Auto Bailouts, two stimulus packages and countless handouts to those who simply aren't willing to work. To put it in perspective, the Obama Administration alone has created $6,000,000,000,000 (yes that is Trillion) in additional dollars that didn't exist. 

As a result you have a market that has drawn people in similar to the way the 90's did, where people quit there job to become day-traders. 

Last week, we had Mila Kunis give her opinion on stocks, and now this week you are seeing a lot of overexposure of a 16-year old actress who is the latest stock picking guru. 

I don't fault her for trading, but glad to see she is taking an interest in the financial markets. My problem is the countless television shows on the financial networks that are rolling her out like a young Jessie Livermore. 

I started trading when I was 11 - before there was an internet, and I can tell you, by the time I was 16 years old, I still needed someone looking over my shoulder. So the thought that Rachel Fox could actually be someone worth trusting is a stretch in the least. All we  know about here is that she started blogging on August 12, 2012 - That's is. 

Back on March 5th she talked about how she was going long on EBAY at $54.70, and then once it got down to $54 she decided to double down. That to me is mind boggling. Her justification is as follows, and I quote:

I bought into Ebay at around $54.70, but the stock dropped down to below 54.00. I could have panicked when the trade got bumpy and lost $.70 or more/share but I didn't bail. I focused and decided to Dollar Cost Average (DCA). Some people say it's bad to DCA, others say it's ok. Bottom line, if you make money, it's always good.

That last comment is what kills me, "If you make money it's always good". The fact that she is looking at trading as a money making scheme-kinda-thing, instead of a profession where you take on trades with certain probabilities of success at a defined risk level, tells me that she has no business being placed on a pedestal as some guru of trading. 

I don't fault her for going on the TV promoting herself, it is a great opportunity for her to do so, and to take advantage of all the popularity. I would've innocently done the same thing as she at her age. But the networks are the bigger fools for pulling a stupid stunt like this for the sake of generating ratings and promoting her as someone worth following. She has zero credibility, zero track record, and I highly doubt she has ever seen a sell-off in the broader markets or even a draw down in her own accounts, particularly in the kind of market we are currently trading in.

That is unless she is still doubling and tripling down on that trade in EBAY still - which she has never closed out. 

by Ryan Mallory

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) Breaking out of long-term consolidation

Stock: Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)

Long or Short: Long

Entry: $33.07

Stop-Loss: $31.85

by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading 0.8% lower.
• Asian markets traded mixed between -0.2% up to +1.3%.
• US futures are trading flat ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (8:58am), FHFA House Price Index (9am), Existing Home Sales (10am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• Quiet day of trading until the Fed buoyed the markets higher with its FOMC Statement. 
• Yesterday's rally nearly took out all of the weakness from the previous three days of trading. 
• The volume on yesterday's rally was much weaker than in previous days where the market sold off. 
• The fear in the market dropped off quite a bit going back down into the 12's again. 
• We haven't seen dead cat bounces at all after sell-offs in the market (if you want to call these slight pullbacks a sell-off). Instead, after the Friday day the market it rallies, it is an entry point to get back into stocks to the long side. 
• I don't recommend using dead cat bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions.
• Market is starting to become rumor driven yet again - this time surrounding the country of Cyprus.
• The nearest  short-term support level for this market lies at 1514. 
• Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
• Also the amount of margin being used to buy stocks are at levels that historically have led to notable reversals in the market. 
• SPX remains extremely overbought in the short-term. 
• Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades: