by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

• European markets are trading -0.5% lower.
• Asian markets traded traded in a wide range between -1.6% and as high as +0.9%.
• US futures are down moderately ahead of the opening bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• First 2-day pullback that we have see in well over a month. 
• Fortunately for the bulls, the dip got bought up early on, and made the losses much easier to handle. 
• Trading below the 10-day moving average for the first time since 4/22. 
• Another down day today in the DJIA and you will have your first 3-day push lower in 2013, and only the second one in the SPX. 
• Volume, particularly in the SPY, continues to flood in at very impressive levels. 
• Surprisingly the short-term trend-line as shown below held up albeit barely. The market will need to rally if that trend-line wants to hold another day. 
• Gap downs are the bears worst enemy. More times than not, they will give up the morning gains. Look for a bottom in the first hour followed by some consolidation and an ultimate push higher. Just like we saw yesterday. 
• A push below 1597 would be necessary to get the month of May in the red. 
• The long-term trend-line off of the February lows sits at 1610 today, and likely safe from the reaches of the market. 
• 30-minute chart shows a very inviting bear flag pattern. 
• Drawing a Fibonacci retracement on the most recent market rally, from the April lows, has a 50% retracement at 1604. A 38.2% retracement would be a 1620. 
• We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009. 
• Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

by Ryan Mallory

Chart of the day...

Quick Glance at the Market Heat Map and Industries

Notables:

• Financials were a mess today
• Some signs of life technology as in health care
• No flight to safety in utilities 

Be sure to check out my latest swing trades and overall past performance Read more...

by Ryan Mallory

Enjoy my latest rant and first video in quite a few weeks - I found it necessary to get some stuff off of my chest when it comes to one of the most abominable trading habits that I can think of. 

It is not that I dont' care about the profits, it is that I don't care about the profits that could have been had after I get out of a trade. Making that your focus only leads to additional problems in your future trades.

Here's my latest rant...

by Ryan Mallory

Brutal market today, if you played it safe, and executed your stop-losses early on this morning, you likely are to see the stocks rallying much higher at this point (I'll be doing a post on this later so stay tuned). 

However, consider yourself a success if you followed the plan of your trade, regardless of what the market has done to you today to stick it to you.

I'm not sure where this market goes from here. I am in a holding position with only one position in the portfolio. There are plenty of people who will tell you otherwise, as if they have a crystal ball, but I'd avoid such prideful traders with such certain beliefs, because such pompous beliefs usually leads their trades down a very uncertain path. Your own beliefs about the market can blind you to a reality that is unfolding without the ability to recognize it. 

With that said, I give you today's Lazy Swing-Trades Long & Short. The first is Harmonic (HLIT) that is sporting some nice consolidation at the highs of recent price activity, followed by Travelers (TRV) which is breaking down with a double-top confirmation. 

Check out these trade setups. 

by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

• European markets are trading -2.3% lower.
• Asian markets traded 3.9% lower. The NIKKEI alone was down 7.3%.
• US futures are trading about 1% lower ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (8:58), FHFA House Price Index (9am), New Home Sales (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• There is suddenly a huge infusement of bearishness in the markets after China's PMI came in below 50, and Bernanke & company had made references about pulling back their involvement in the markets as early as June. 
• This is the main reason for the -7% drop Japan's NIKKEI. 
• Overnight you have a HUGE inverse head and shoulders pattern that has formed on the S&P futures, where if it can get above 1645, the bulls could thereby push this market somewhat higher. 
• Gap downs are the bears worst enemy. More times than not, they will give up the morning gains. Look for a bottom in the first hour followed by some consolidation and an ultimate push higher. 
• There is a lot of news out there today, particularly with what we are hearing from the FED from yesterday making a lot of traders very nervous. 
• We will open up below the 10-day moving average. We will also be trading below the short-term trend-line which support rests at 1655. 
• The long-term trend-line off of the February lows sits at 1607 today, and likely safe from the reaches of the market. 
• Huge bearish engulfing pattern on the SPY yesterday. 
• Incredible volume in the markets yesterday, almost the highest we've seen all year for the SPY. 
• 30-minute chart of the SPX has completely broken down. 
• Drawing a Fibonacci retracement on the most recent market rally, from the April lows, has a 50% retracement at 1604. A 38.2% retracement would be a 1620. 
• My biggest concern, and the reason why I think we will ultimately see some consolidation here, is how far removed the SPX is from the rising trend line off of the November lows. 
• I do have big reservations about whether this market can truly get up to 1700 as quickly as it is trying to do. It has gone straight up since crossing 1600, and bulls have become gluttons in their market outlook. 
• We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009. 
• Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

by Ryan Mallory

Oscar (aka Fuinhaz) is the head day-trader at SharePlanner and boy did he prove why today.

On a day in which the market headed decidedly lower, Fuinhaz managed to capture winner after winner. 

Most traders are bleeding through their nose by the surprise that the market gave them today, but with 5 winning trades and 3 losing trades Oscar had a solid day that saw even the losing trades kept at a minimum, and I mean bear minimum, while the winners were let out of their cage and ran until they ran out of steam for a nice gain. 

If you are interested in our real-time day-trade and swing-trade alerts for both Oscar's and mine, be sure to try us out at the SharePlanner Splash Zone for a free 7-day trial. 

Here's the details of exactly how Oscar traded the day. 

by Ryan Mallory

Bulls don't know whhat to do! It feels like the walls are caving in, the sky is falling and the Mayans were one year early on their end of the world prrediction. 

We've sold off as much as 30 points and there is no telling whether there is more ahead.

I was stopped out of one of my positions this morning but it was one that I already had double digit gains in (RLGY for 11%). I tightened the stops on the others, and plan on keepign them all into the close unless some other of my stops are triggered. 

While some of the charts on my positions got fouled up some with the broader market action that they were trading in sympathy to, I nonetheless know that based on past precedence we may in fact see this market bounce as soon as tomorrow, particularly since we have yet to see the market sell-off two days in a row in the past month, and each time we have seen a significant sell-off it has resulted in a respectable bounce the next day. 

by Ryan Mallory

Reversal Indicator shows price action topping out possibly in the short-term

Today's market action gave us the biggest intraday reversal that we have seen on the S&P 500 this year. At this point the reversal has seen us drop 22 points. 

We got as high as 1687 at one point and like I've been saying lately in my daily trading plans, I think it is going to be difficult for us to seamlessly push through the 1700 level, and today that is exactly what I believe was happening when we reversed hard only 13 points from 1700. 

The SharePlanner Daily Reversal Indicator shows that we may, at best, start consolidating and more likely setting up for a pullback in the short term. How big that pullback is, I have no clue. It may not be hardly anything at all, but what I think the message to take away from the SPRI here is that the upward momentum is going to slow down some from here. 

Here's the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator.

by Ryan Mallory

The things we see in the news these days...and today is no exception. Here is a few clips of some of the news makers that are really getting under my skin... 

Pervert Anthony Weiner:

The scandalous Louis Lerner keeping her trap shut

And the freakshow Jodi Arias talking about her charitable contributions

by Ryan Mallory

Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

• European markets are trading 0.1% higher.
• Asian markets traded 0.3% higher.
• US futures are slightly higher.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Existing Home Sales (10am), Bernanke speaks (10am), EIA Petroleum Report (10:30am), FOMC Minutes (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• We finished higher yet again yesterday, however, the action falls along the lines of the consolidation argument I made earlier this week. 
• You have a trend-line that is much steeper and short term off of the April lows, that lends rising support at 1645.. 
• Along those same lines, the 10-day moving average continues to be an excellent gauge for determining short-term market strength, as long as price manages to stay above it, the market undoubtedly remains bullish. 
• A bearish divergence yesterday to take note of in the VIX as it rose nearly 3% despite the market moving higher as well. This has become more common place in the market of late. 
• 30 minute chart is starting to look like a possible double top is forming. 
• I think that we are likely to see more consolidation this week, as there is little in the way of news that can affect the market's outlook. 
• Drawing a Fibonacci retracement on the most recent market rally, from the April lows, has a 50% retracement at 1604. A 38.2% retracement would be a 1620. 
• My biggest concern, and the reason why I think we will ultimately see some consolidation here, is how far removed the SPX is from the rising trend line off of the November lows. 
• Eventually the equities bubble we are in right now will burst, but until then, you have no choice but to trade to the long side. 
• I do have big reservations about whether this market can truly get up to 1700 as quickly as it is trying to do. It has gone straight up since crossing 1600, and bulls have become gluttons in their market outlook. 
• Traders will point at the fact that we are overbought but we have been since April - move on, nothing to see there. 
• We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009. 
• Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
• We haven't seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades: