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Three trade setups to watch today

Big vote in the House today (or it may not even happen at all) on the ObamaCare repeal-and-replace. Whether it happens or not will no doubt affect the trajectory of the market today and tomorrow. Right now, they are saying that Trump is short a few votes in his party, but I suspect that will get figured out before the time comes. 

Yesterday, SPX managed to hold it together and not follow through to the downside following Tuesday's sell-off. That has been the norm of late for the market, regardless to the upside or downside, when there is a sharp move in price following quiet price action; the tendency is for the market to fade the move. The latest instance was following the March 1st rally.

Short-term the market is way oversold, and due for a strong bounce. If the bill can pass the House, it should be enough to rally this market today and tomorrow.  

Long J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM)

trading setups jpm

Stocks Watch List

That's why I say managing risk is so important

Yes, it not a fun subject to talk about, but it is not something you cannot afford to ignore. From the highs to the lows of the day, SPX sold off 40 points and broke its key trend line. That is a massive swing considering how low the volatility has been of late and how small the point moves tend to be on a day-to-day basis. But you can't ignore the risks and when the market does sell-off, it will do what you saw yesterday and take the elevator straight down. 

The selling may be over with, or it may have room to go still. But I am sitting 100% cash. Yesterday's moves took me out of my stops, and I booked some profits. I'm okay though because, like I have been saying all along, I've been increasing my stop-losses so that I would come away with trades that preserved their profits. 

Now flexibility is all in my corner and I can take this market on from any direction it wants to take me.

One bounce, one breakout, one breakdown trade setup

With just three swing-trade setups this morning, I am covering a wide spectrum of trading styles that you can take with this market today. Dennis Gartman, the ultimate contrarian to go against in this market, said something broke in the market yesterday and that a 5% or worse of a pullback is in store for the market, so that probably means that the bulls will be trying to hit new all-time highs before the lunch hour approaches (I kid, but if you follow anything Gartman says, you know this guys is so opposite of what ever the market ever does). 

Be careful out there, no need to get overly long or short on this market. Just let the price action come to you and you'll be just fine. 

Long FedEx Corp (FDX)

swing trade setup fdx

Stocks Watch List

We knew this day was coming...The elevator down day. 

Yup, it always does - the market lulls everyone into a false sense of security, takes the steps higher a little bit at a time and the woosh! Sell the market off hard and fast and take everything down with it. Perhaps the bulls will get excited in the days ahead and buy the dip, or the bears will finally muster the strength to take this market down like it has always wanted to do. Either way, the best thing you can do for yourself is remain nimble and place a high priority on flexibility for your portfolio. In doing so, it'll make it where you can react and adjust to whathever this market throws your way in the days ahead. 

Short-term triangle pattern on SPX

SPX has been coiling in a triangle pattern the past three weeks now, or essentially, this entire month of trading. It has pulled back to the rising trend-line that forms the bottom half of the triangle pattern. However, it has only experienced a mild, light volume pullback over the past five trading sessions, and could easily bounce here and breakout of the triangle to the upside. 

Watch for a move in one direction or the other and plan your trades accordingly. These light volume pullbacks that are extremely shallow. Check this out. The S&P has finished down four out of the last five days. On 3/13 SPX finished the day at 2373.47. Yesterday it closed at 2373.47! Crazy, right? Basically, despite the market pulling back 80% of the time during that time frame, it is still at the same place it started. That isn't a pullback!

Hang tight out there. Don't get ahead of yourself, and always put the risk first in all of your trades. 

stock market today

S&P 500 Chart

triangle pattern

Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance: 

  • 6 long positions

Recent Stock Trade Notables:

  • Broadcom (AVGO): Long at 218.63, Closed at 222.71 for a 1.9% profit. 
  • American Airlines (AAL): Short at 44.76, Closed at 44.03 for a 1.6% profit.
  • UPRO  (Day-Tade): Long at 95.35, closed at 96.50 for a 1.2% profit.
  • OZRK: Long at $56.12, closed at $54.69 for a 2.5% loss. 
  • FNSR: Long at $34.25, closed at 34.70 for a 1.3% profit. 
  • UPRO  (Day-Tade): Long at 96.92, closed at 98.03 for a 1.2% profit. 
  • JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Long at 87.21, closed at 89.67 for a 2.8% profit. 
  • Chevron (CVX): Short at 110.03, covered at 111.85 for a 1.6% loss. 
  • Flex Technologies (FLEX): Long at $15.62, closed at $16.57 for a 6.1% profit. 
  • Baidu (BIDU): Long at $174.70, closed at $187.00 for a 7.0% profit. 
  • Ollie's Bargain Outlet: Long at 33.20, closed at $32.50 for a 2.1% loss. 
  • Corning (GLW): Long at $26.98, closed at $27.45 for a 1.7% profit. 
  • Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Long at $127.74, closed at $129.86 for a 1.7% profit. 
  • Marriott Int'l (MAR): Long at $86.16, closed at $87.51 for a 1.6% profit. 

MS stock price at a place that could result in a hard bounce

The banks have not been a fan of traders for the past couple of weeks. Take the MS stock price - the action in this stock, of late, has resulted in a near 10% correction. But now it could be ready to bounce as it is sitting on a key price support level. If that $44 area holds there should be $3-4 of upside. 

So take a look at it and the other two trade setups I've put together for you. 

Long Morgan Stanley (MS)

ms stock

Stocks Watch List

Here's a list of some of my favorite swing trading and day trading setups for the week ahead.

You still have the market doldrums carrying over from last week into the James Comey hearing before the House Committee today. No major market shockers coming out of it, but the market is trading, at the time of this post at the lows of the day. I added one long position in the semiconductor industry and it has been running hot all day long, but trying to get long here and at this point of the day with something, I may steer clear of, and even trim the portfolio some before the end of the day. 

Stocks Watch List

 

There's no point, right now, on the trading day to force another swing or day trading setup that you like while the market is giving little momentum for stocks to feast on. I'll be watching the final hour of the trading session to see if the bulls perk up, finally, and push this market higher. 

For now, review the long setups in the list below. There are some great setups, but you'll want to wait for the right conditions to materialize on the intraday charts in order to establish a position in them. 

Watch the trend-line on the chart of the S&P 500

A lot can change here today or this week if the rising trend-line as noted in the chart of the S&P 500 below fails to hold. You have a potential topping pattern - emphasis on "potential" - with a new all time high that was achieved a couple of weeks ago, followed by a lower-high achieved last week. Now that all goes away if SPX can breakout to new all-time highs this week.

Three trading tips for the week ahead

We are coming off a pretty dull week of trading. Financials saw a pullback following Janet Yellen's FOMC statement and there is a desire among traders out there to see the market perk up some to make things more interesting in the week ahead. I've put together three trading tips in the form of stock opportunities that you can take a gander at. 

No matter what, manage the risk, trade what you see, and let the profits take care of themselves. 

Long Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)

trading tips hban

Stocks Watch List

Stock charts I am watching to swing trade

I'll be the first to say that today's trading session was incredibly boring from a price action standpoint. Apparently Wall Street observes St. Patrick's Day. I had no idea. All kidding aside, tomorrow is quadruple witching day and that could create some exciting moments for the market. If so, here are some stocks charts of some swing trades I might be taking tomorrow. 

Long 21st Century Fox (FOXA)

stock charts foxa

Stocks Watch List

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the part time swing trader by Ryan Mallory