Don't let May waste away, instead learn to consistently profit in your trading by signing up for a Free 7-Day Trial to the SharePlanner Splash Zone! With your membership, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my chat-room that I trade in each day. Click Here to try it for Free!

Here's your swing-trading watch-list:

Short Alphabet (GOOGL)

googl

Short Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

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Here's my Google Hangout for this week. 

In this video I go over all the major indices as well as $GLD, SLV, USO, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, AAPL, and JNJ. So be sure to check it out. 

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Popular thought among traders is that emotional people aren't suited to trade in the stock market. 

trading with emotionsBut is that really true? 

When I took the Myers-Briggs test to see what I would come out as, my reading was an INFP

I - Introversion

N - Intuitive

F - Feelings

P - Perception

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The market action today has been incredibly choppy, and if you are a bull in this market looking to buy the dip, you can't be liking the action you are seeing. market wants to sell off

Let's face it, the bulls had everything going in their favor this morning:

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Technical Outlook:

  • SPX sold off for the fourth time in the last five days and closed yesterday below the lows from last week. 
  • There was almost a test of the 50-day moving average yesterday but the dip buyers stepped in before that could take place. 
  • Again yesterday afternoon we saw the dip buyers come in during afternoon trading and lift price off of the lows of the day. 
  • In essence the bears are unable to get even one clean, solid sell-off that doesn't get eventually bought up. 
  • There is plenty of talk about a market rally today, and that is very much possible considering that oil is up quite a bit in overnight trading and futures up slightly as well. 
  • The 30 minute chart of SPX has a solid series of lower-highs and lower-lows in place. 
  • SPY volume was slightly below recent averages and dropped off some from the day prior. 
  • VIX is really struggling to find some momentum here and push through the 16.40 level as it has been rejected at that price point for four straight days. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) continues to deteriorate, dropping another 5.2% down to 62%. As stated yesterday, it has clearly broken out of its recent range. 
  • The objective for the bulls here should be to get price back over 2073, while the bears should be attempting a move to get back below 2040.
  • Historically the May through October time frame is much weaker than the rest of the year.
  • Yellen's dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

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Don't go away in May, instead learn to consistently profit in your trading by signing up for a Free 7-Day Trial to the SharePlanner Splash Zone! With your membership, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my chat-room that I trade in each day. Click Here to try it for Free!

Here's your swing-trading watch-list:

Long Marriott Int'l (MAR)

mar

Long Fortinet (FTNT)

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One of the members of the SharePlanner Splash Zone Today pointed out a nice trade setup in GIS and so I thought I'd dissect it for you and give some thoughts on it. general mills trade setup swing gis

Quite a nice trade setup really, with a readily definable risk/reward to it. Obviously, this isn't a trade that is going to sky rocket overnight for you, but it has held steady of late, and with a market that is seeing some head winds as well, that is really what you want here. 

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If you remember from two weeks ago, the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator had gone from flashing a bearish signal to another bullish signal. 

The problem was that this signal was at the top of the range and I had my doubts about its legitimacy. Fast forward to today, where the market is working on its second straight week of weakness and now you have that recent bullish signal starting to weaken yet again and on the verge of reverting back to the original bearish signal. 

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vix

The VIX indicator has been very interesting to watch of late. 

First, you have a text book double bottom that has formed. But it hasn't confirmed the pattern in the form of a breakout. 

That break out level is around 16.30/40 and should it close above that level, I think it is very possible that continued downside will play out for the market. 

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Technical Outlook:

  • Another sell-off in SPX yesterday that once again saw the bulls buy the dip at the days lows and drive the price higher, thereby eliminating a good chunk of the day's losses. the fourth is weak with this one
  • It is hard to say that the bears have full control of this market when the bulls manage to rally the masses each afternoon and into the close. Once that ceases, then the bears will have some level of control. 
  • The objective for today is two fold for the bears: 1) break last week's lows at 2052 and 2) Close below support at 2041. 
  • SPY volume was notably higher yesterday, and twice what we saw during Monday's rally. Volume was also above average. 
  • VIX continues to struggle to breakout at 16.30-40's. 
  • The market is staring at another gap down for a second consecutive day. Once again it will be imperative for the bears to hold down the fort and not allow that gap to fill. 
  • A major sell-off today could take price to the 50-day moving average. Watch for whether price kicks in at support here. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) saw its lowest closing since 2/29/16 by dropping 13%. Indicator also broke out of its tight two month range was well. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart continues to deteriorate from the nice trend-line that was previously in place off of the 2/11/16 lows. 
  • Last week marked the first time in eleven weeks where SPX finished below the previous week's trading lows. 
  • Yesterday officially kicks off the "Sell in May, Go Away" theory. Last year the market peaked in May before trending lower the rest of the year.
  • Historically the May through October time frame is much weaker than the rest of the year.
  • It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly. 
  • Yellen's dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

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