Become a profitable swing-trader  by jumping into the SharePlanner Splash Zone with a with a Free 7-Day Trial. With your membership, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my world-class chat-room that I trade in each and every day. Click Here to Join!

Here's today's swing-trading watch-list:

Short American Airlines Group (AAL)

aal-2

Short Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)

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Technical Outlook:

  • One of the largest bounces the market has ever seen unfolded yesterday, sending SPX back above 1900 to 1940. 
  • These dead cat bounces can easily last 2-3 days before the selling resumes. 
  • Here is what you should be asking yourself - in six days, SPX drops 234 points non-stop - over 10%. Are we really to assume the sell-off is now over in just six days and we are all going to be back on the road to new all-time highs? I think not. 
  • SPX looking to break above the 5-day moving average today at the open. 
  • Volume on on SPY remains extremely elevated, but has faded over the previous two trading sessions. 
  • Volatility continues to drop, but remains quite elevated at 30.32. It dropped yesterday 15.8%, which considering the amount of yesterday's rally, would have seen a bigger drop. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) saw a 59% increase to 9.7% - not unusual to see such large rallies when the indicator is at such a low reading. 
  • Potential base forming on SPX 30 minute chart - a move over 1954 would be considered significant and could lead to the market rallying further from here. At the moment SPX is poised to open above this level. 
  • Still the objective for the bears will be to 1) resume the downtrend and stop the dead-cat bounce 2) Break below the October 2014 lows of 1820. 
  • Trade nimble, be careful about holding positions overnight, because the volatility is still at extreme levels and much of the daily moves are happening before the market ever opens. 
  • The current market conditions makes it very difficult to swing-trade positions overnight simply because the risk cannot be contained with the trade parameters. That doesn't mean that I won't consider holding a position overnight, but it has to be aligning well technically. 
  • It stands to reason at this point that the Fed will not raise rats in September - possibly not even this year.


My Trades:


  • Bought SDS yesterday at $54.29 and sold it at $54.73 for a 0.8% gain. 
  • Did not add any new swing positions yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any swing positions yesterday. 
  • 100% cash
  • We have a bounce that is underway, with yesterday's rally. Ultimately I think it will prove to be an opportunity to short. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-27-15

SharePlanner Reversal Indicator showing that a bottom may be in sight. 

That's not me saying that a bottom is in place, simply that we are likely closing in on a bottom and that a short-term rally, maybe only a dead-cat bounce, may be nearing. 

On the Daily, you have covered the full spectrum of highs to lows on the SPRI and could flash a bullish signal any day now. 

Here's the Daily SPRI:

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Technical Outlook:

  • A disaster yesterday for the bulls as the SPX was trading 55 points higher at one point (nearly 3%), only to sell off in the afternoon, most notably in the final hour of trading to finish the day 25 points lower (-1.35%)
  • The biggest achievement for the bulls would be if they could avoid in the coming days and weeks, a break of 1820 - the lows of October 2014 sell-off. 
  • There is absolutely no denying this market is due for a bounce. The problem with trying to front run a bounce in this market is that it could still sell-off a substantial amount and even do so intraday and shake you out of your positions. Better to wait for market to turn higher first. 
  • After seeing yesterday's sell-off, you have to remain very guarded in your long positions and trades for another potential sell-off to occur. 
  • Despite the sell-off yesterday, the VIX still dropped 11.6% down to 36. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) is at levels that haven't been seen since the Great Recession bottom of March 2009. 
  • Trade nimble, be careful about holding positions overnight, because the volatility is still at extreme levels and much of the daily moves are happening before the market ever opens. 
  • SPY volume levels still very high and elevated. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart held by fractions of a point, the lows from yesterday. 
  • The current market conditions makes it very difficult to swing-trade positions overnight simply because the risk cannot be contained with the trade. That doesn't mean that I won't consider holding a position overnight, but it has to be aligning well technically. 
  • It stands to reason at this point that the Fed will not raise rats in September - possibly not even this year.


My Trades:

Read more...

Become a profitable swing-trader  by jumping into the SharePlanner Splash Zone with a with a Free 7-Day Trial. With your membership, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my world-class chat-room that I trade in each and every day. Click Here to Join!

Here's today's swing-trading watch-list:

Short Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA)

mnta

Short Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)

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Technical Outlook:

  • Another cataclysmic day of trading for the market as it dropped below 1900 and closed at 1867. A 235 point drop from the close on the prior Monday on the S&P 500. 
  • SPY saw its highest volume levels yesterday in years. It was 4 times its typical average. 
  • The VIX registered an intraday reading that was the highest that has been seen since the March 2009 lows. At one point it was over 53. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average, registered its lowest reading since the October 2014 lows of 7%. These are the levels that typical can create, at the very least, a short-term bottom. 
  • Today is looking at a gap up of nearly 60 points. Which is honestly an insane level to reach in the premarket, but considering the previous gap downs, it isn't all that unexpected. 
  • The current market conditions makes it very difficult to swing-trade positions overnight simply because the risk cannot be contained with the trade. That doesn't mean that I won't consider holding a position overnight, but it has to be aligning well technically. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart suggests you may have the possibility for a double bottom with the morning strength we are seeing in the futures market. 
  • It stands to reason at this point that the Fed will not raise rats in September - possibly not even this year.


My Trades:

Read more...

Instead of my typical swing-trading watch-list tonight, and since the market can move 5-10% in either direction before the market even opens up, I thought it might be more important to talk to you about managing your portfolio accounts both for long-term investing and short-term trading.

Here is some straight talk: 

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Markets in Turmoil, Black Monday, Stock Market Crash!

We have heard all of these expressions and more today. What we saw this morning and the panic selling that took place followed by a rally that probably hasn't never been matched or equaled in any of our life times has everyone scratching their heads right now. 

Do I go long?

Take advantage of some value plays?

Go short? 

Sit on my hands? 

None of the above - what you should be doing right now, is managing risk. if you can't identify where the risk is at or can't get it within your parameters to justify a trade of any kind, then don't. I was stopped out on Thursday in the early going and I refused to add any new swing-trades to my portfolio. I added one trade today just as a swing trade and got stopped out of it.

But in all, I have managed to avoid so much of the carnage that so many other traders got themselves caught up in. Once the market started breaking down on Tuesday, there wasn't a clear break down in the market just yet, but there was some concerns. I was 50% long and 50% cash. But Thursday I was 100% cash all together and haven't added a single swing-trade to the portfolio since, and will go into tonight's firework show 100% cash still. 

You see, I use hard stop-losses and I follow them religiously. When my stops are hit, the trade setup is no longer valid and it is time to either move on to the next trade or to do nothing at all. For the past 6 trading sessions I have chosen to sit on my hands and do nothing. 

Don't get caught up in the stock picks or which stocks are running higher or which ones are dropping. Concern yourself with one thing thing and one thing only and that is controlling risk across every stock, option, futures contract, and ETF that you own. 

I trade stocks in such a way and  with such diligence that I know that days like we have seen in the past week can come at a moment's notice... just like this one! There was no heads up, no advance notice. Nothing. Instead we closed last Monday at 2102 and today we find ourselves trading as low as the 1867 today. 

If the risk cannot be managed adequately - if there isn't a clear "get out" price on your trade, you shouldn't be making that trade at all. Otherwise, you will find yourself holding on to stocks that you are trapped in and you don't want that to happen to you. 

For me, a swing trade at this juncture is utter foolishness. Sure play with the day-trades, if you can, even that isn't easy to do. You have  over 80% of the daily move happening overnight while the overseas markets are open and the US markets are all closed and its traders fast asleep. The weekly action has been down, up, down, up for seven straight weeks, and as a result, determining what the market is going to do tomorrow has worse odds connected to it than heading off to Vegas and playing craps. 

Identify the risk, know what your loss could be, and if it becomes a reality - take it. No matter what!

Like I've already said, I have managed to avoid the sudden downturn in this market because I am managing risk appropriately. That's my calling card and that is what I emphasize to those who subscribe to the SharePlanner Splash Zone. It isn't about the stock, it is about the risk because when this market's insane volatility calms down, I won't be trading from a deficit, instead I will be looking to add to my current profits for the year. So don't go digging a hole for yourself, and instead to go long/short in somewhat more calmer and more predictable markets. 

facebook-shareplanner-cover 

 

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX is seeing a disaster sell-off taking place right now. 
  • Every support level we have been watching of late has been shattered. Support at the 1900 level also looks to be challenged here at the open. 
  • Consider this, SPX is looking at going under 1900 today, when at the close last Monday it was at 2102. 
  • THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY THE DIP, BE THE HERO, TRADE BIG, OR CATCH THE FALLING KNIFE.....PERIOD.
  • I say that because, fortunes are being lost, and this is not a typical market scenario where you should be looking to buy value. Instead this market is acting as if it wants to teeter on possibly crashing. 
  • With that said, there will at some point be a massive rally, but that could happen after the market drops another 1%, 5% or more than 10%. The point is, let the market show you FIRST that it wants to bounce. Don't force your will on this market. 
  • The October lows after 1900 is the next support level for the market, at 1820 on SPX. 
  • VIX will easily see the 30's today... possibly even the 40's. 
  • T2108 hit 18.1% on Friday. Very good chance it hits October's lows at 13%. 
  • Today SPY is looking at its 10th straight gap down in the market. 
  • It stands to reason at this point that the Fed will not raise rats in September - possibly not even this year.
  • Lots and lots of volume pouring into the market right now. More than anything we've seen since last October. 
  • A view is emerging that a rate hike in September might be off the table. Today's Fed minutes may shed more light on this area. 


My Trades:

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Technical Outlook:

  • SPX had a wild and turbulent ride yesterday watching price drop 26 points, only to rally to break even on a leaked Fed minutes, followed by another drop of 17 points into the close. 
  • Today SPY is looking at its 8th straight gap down in the market. 
  • There has been plenty of dip buying of late and could possibly see the same happen again today. However, the dip buying has been strong enough to take the market back to break even but struggles mightily with actually going and staying in the green. 
  • It stands to reason at this point that the Fed will not raise rats in September - possibly not even this year. This could be reason to inspire the dip buyers to take the market back up today despite the overall weakness heading into the day. 
  • The 200-day moving average is no doubt on the forefront of my trading today. Can the bears break and close below this all-important MA. 
  • Nothing but a massive chop for SPX 30 minute chart. 
  • As of today this is the longest period of consolidation for the market this far into a year. The second longest and tightest period was 1911. yes, this is a trading range for the ages. 
  • SPX crushed all the short-term moving averages including the 5, 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages
  • VIX had a rather tumultuous day as it finished up 1.6% after multiple +10% swings in both directions. It is currently at 15.25. 
  • Significant increase in the volume, nearly more than the previous two days combined. I'd look for similar volume readings again today. 
  • A view is emerging that a rate hike in September might be off the table. Today's Fed minutes may shed more light on this area. 


My Trades:

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