Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.8% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.8% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
MBA Purchase Applications (7), ADP Employment Report (8:15), PMI Manufacturing Index (9:45), ISM Manufacturing Index (10), Construction Spending (10), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • For a fourth consecutive day, SPX has held the rising trend-line off of the December 2012 lows. This bodes well, but have yet to see price move off of the trend line which still puts it at risk of being broken. 
  • The 5-day moving average is also providing daily resistance for SPX. 
  • Volume was strong yesterday, but only due to it being end of month/quarter. 
  • Stocks are becoming notably oversold. 
  • VIX rose 2% to 16.30
  • SPX 30-minute chart continues to show signs of a base forming. 
  • First day of the trading month historically has been a bullish month, but the in August and September they were both down. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Join me by signing up for a Free 7-Day Trial where you will be given access to the member chat room as well as receive all my swing-trade alerts via email and text (international too). If you'd like to see just how good my past performance has been, you can do so by clicking here

Here's tomorrow's swing-trading watch-list:

Long Morgan Stanley (MS)

ms

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.0% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.6% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Redbook (8:55), S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10), State Street Investor Confidence (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge rally off of the lows yesterday resulting in a 75% recovery. 
  • Rally occurred off of the trend-line off of the December 2012 lows. 
  • Also managed to reclaim the 50-day moving average as well. 
  • SPX resulted in a hammer candle today and a strong potential for a bounce higher today. 
  • However, the price action is still below key resistance which is why I've remained bearish at this point, but that bearishness is on thin ice at this point. 
  • VIX rose 7.6% to 15.98 yesterday. 
  • Higher-low on the SPX 30-minute chart, and the potential for a base that could be developing. 
  • SPX is looking at a possible negative month - the second such month in the last three months. 
  • The rather large swings in price action on all the major indices indicates that we are not dealing with a healthy market at the moment. This is a time to preserve capital or at the very least lessen one's long exposure. 
  • There is very little support between current price and the August lows at 1904.
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Join me by signing up for a Free 7-Day Trial where you will be given access to the member chat room as well as receive all my swing-trade alerts via email and text (international too). If you'd like to see just how good my past performance has been, you can do so by clicking here

Here's tomorrow's swing-trading watch-list:

Short Alcoa (AA)

aa-1

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On the daily chart of the S&P 500, the market is no doubt flawed, but today if found support off a long-term trend-line that began back in December 2012 and that trend line was tested and held just like it did back in August last month. 

I'm not overly confidence at this point that the market has put in a bottom, but if this market does go green and holds it together, then it will be quite persuasive that a bottom has been reached. 

Until then, feast your eyes on some of my most favorite trade setups out there right now. 

Here's my bullish trade setups:

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.3% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.5% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Personal Income and Outlays (8:30), Pending Home Sales (10), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30), 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Heavy bounce back on Friday that saw SPX recover the 1978 level. 
  • Nonetheless, the lower low has been established on the index chart, and should lead to at least a drift lower in the days that follow. 
  • SPX is looking at a possible negative month - the second such month in the last three months. 
  • Futures are gapping significantly lower this morning and likely to test the 1978 level on SPX shortly after the market opens. 
  • While gap ups have often been faded of late, the same can't be said recently of gap downs, which on the whole tends to stay down on the day. 
  • The rather large swings in price action on all the major indices indicates that we are not dealing with a healthy market at the moment. This is a time to preserve capital or at the very least lessen one's long exposure. 
  • Despite Friday's bounce, SPX remains firmly in a downtrend on the 30-minute chart. 
  • VIX droped 5.1% to 14.85 on Friday. 
  • Trend line off of the November 2012 lows might be tested today at 1963. 
  • There is very little support between current price and the August lows at 1904.
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Join me by signing up for a Free 7-Day Trial where you will be given access to the member chat room as well as receive all my swing-trade alerts via email and text (international too). If you'd like to see just how good my past performance has been, you can do so by clicking here

Here's tomorrow's swing-trading watch-list:

Short SunEdison (SUNE)

sune

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.8% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.6% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
GDP (8:30), Corporate Profits (8:30), Consumer Sentiment (9:55)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge sell-off yesterday and biggest one we've seen since July 31st. 
  • 50-day moving average was broken decisively and with little effort. 
  • Most importantly the 1978 price level was broken yesterday which was critical support . Now SPX has created a lower-low for the market today. 
  • Trend line off of the Novermber 2012 lows might be tested today at 1957. 
  • There is very little support between current price and the August lows at 1904.
  • SPX 30-minute chart showing a well defined breakdown in place for the market. 
  • VIX spiked 17.9% to 15.64.
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Join me by signing up for a Free 7-Day Trial where you will be given access to the member chat room as well as receive all my swing-trade alerts via email and text (international too). If you'd like to see just how good my past performance has been, you can do so by clicking here

Here's tomorrow's swing-trading watch-list:

Short Basic Energy Services (BAS)

bas

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Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
Durable Goods Orders (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), PMI Services Flash (9:45), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Impressive bounce yesterday for the market as SPX rallied a solid 20 points off of the lows of the day. 
  • SPX tested 1978 as mentioned in all the Trading Plans that were posted this week and the support held, leading to a massive short squeeze. 
  • Some weakness today and a moderate gap down to take place. The key for the bulls will be to buy the dip early on and prop this market back up. 
  • Yesterday's bounce and short squeeze seemed like it was much more than just a simple dead cat bounce, based on the strength and extent of the rally. 
  • With that said, all the rally ultimately did was keep us in the very tight trading range that SPX has been stuck in all month long. 
  • VIX gave up some huge gains by dropping 11.1% down to 13.27.
  • SPX 30 minute chart still looks very much range bound. 
  • The monthly chart of SPX is shaping up to be a very tight doji. As it stands now SPX is only 5 points lower than where it ended July at. 
  • Key level to watch on SPX today is 1978. If that price level breaks, the market will create a lower-low which would be very bearish
  • SPY volume has been strong and above average for the past two weeks. 
  • 50-day moving held strong yesterday. 
  • At the moment there is little to no fear in this market. That can always change, but no major themes in the market that can cause problems for it right now. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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