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Long Panera Bread (PNRA)

pnra

Long Kate Spade (KATE)

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If you've been trading this market for the past 10 days as I have been doing, it has been one of the most boring markets ever without a holiday looming around the corner. 

Apparently investors are sneaking off to the Hamptons again for one last summer vacation before shipping their kids off to boarding school. 

Meanwhile, I'm here typing out another blog post while waiting for my son's public school to start (yeah, I live life on the edge). 

If SPX finishes higher today, then you have the 11th consecutive day of SPX trading in an up/down/up/down fashion. This doesn't happen very much (only 10 other times since the 1920's), but ironically it did happen back in November 11 through December 2 of last year for 13 straight trading sessions. 

What was the end result?

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Technical Outlook:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) continues to trade in an up/down/up/down pattern for the past 10 trading sessions. fed hangover stock market janet yellen swing trade
  • This has only happened eleven other times since the 1920's. 
  • SPX hit 13 times late last year. 
  • Volume on SPY increased slightly yesterday for a second straight day and almost closed at recent averages. 
  • Oil continues to drop - as it is slightly down again this morning, and broke below the Fibonacci 50% retracement level. The big question becomes as it tracks lower towards the February lows, is when does this start negatively affecting stocks like we saw back in December/January. 
  • SPX is trading in a very tight range for the past 10 trading sessions and unable to break out of its current trading range. Even with the FOMC Statement yesterday, the impact was minimal. 
  • Nasdaq (COMPQ) and Russell (RUT) continue to trend higher and break out of their current ranges while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) continues to show signs of rolling over. 
  • SPX trading range continues to come in incredibly choppy. Two price levels to watch that will signify further weakness in the market is 2059 and 2055. 
  • Interestingly enough over the past month you are finally starting to see a bend in the 200-day moving average to the upside. For much of the year it has been flat. 
  • Very bearish candles on the VIX continue to be formed right at the critical 13 price point. 
  • Facebook (FB) came in strong last night on its earnings report but has pulled back some from its initial highs. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 

My Trades:

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Join the SharePlanner Splash Zone and start trading with me to see for yourself what a membership can do for your portfolio. Sign up for a Free 7-Day Trial - with your subscription, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my chat-room that I trade in each day. Click Here to try it for Free!.

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Long Workday (WDAY)

wday

Long Comcast (CMCSA)

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With the FOMC behind us, the market can breathe a sigh of relief that there wasn't a surprise interest rate hike. But really the overall market reaction to the news was more "meh" than anything else. reversal indicator at extremes

With that said the Weekly SharePlanner Reversal Indicator is now hovering at extremes. If you get my morning analysis each day, I provide on the Daily SPRI, you'll see that it too is at extremes for the past week or two (you can get it by signing up for the free morning newsletter on the right hand side of this page -->) 

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Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate. Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.janet yellen fomc statement july 27 2016 federal reserve

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

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Technical Outlook:

  • For 9 straight trading sessions, the S&P 500 (SPX) has followed a pattern of up, down, up, down. yellen on watch stock market
  • Nasdaq (COMPQ) has traded in the same pattern for 11 straight trading sessions. 
  • Russell Index (RUT) looked the strongest yesterday as it broke out of its 10-day trading range to the upside. 
  • The big question will be whether the Fed will hint at future rate hikes at the September meeting. I think that will be very difficult to do considering that they would be doing it right before the election. Expecting a rate hike today doesn't seem feasible as they have done little to nothing to prep everybody for it. 
  • November 2 seems completely off the table just days before an election, which makes December 14th, the most likely scenario, when the 2016 election is over. 
  • Remember following the FOMC Statement the market can make several moves within the first 30 minutes of trading. Traditionally the first move has been the usually been the path the market  ultimately takes. 
  • Price appears wedged between the 5 and 10-day moving averages on SPX. 
  • Interestingly enough over the past month you are finally starting to see a bend in the 200-day moving average to the upside. For much of the year it has been flat. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart remains very choppy with a possible double top that has formed. 
  • VIX continues to rise, and now back over the 13 price resistance level. Though the candles from the last two days suggests that the bulls cannot hold on to the strength in the VIX intraday. 
  • Multiple attempts over the past two days of trading to sell the market off has not resulted in any clear decisiveness from the bears. Very difficult to get short here until we see some breaks to the downside. 
  • Volume on the SPY actually picked up some yesterday and was the highest that has been seen in the past seven trading sessions. Still well above recent averages though. 
  • Apple (AAPL) reported earnings yesterday and for a change, has seen a huge boost in its share price following its report. This should provide a huge lift to tech and to a lesser extent, the market as a whole. 
  • United States Oil (USO) continues to trade without a bounce. Still sitting at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. 
  • If the slide continues, in the very near future, stocks will start reacting adversely to it. 
  • Watch 2155 on SPX - a break of this price level could lead to further selling today. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 

My Trades:

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Join the SharePlanner Splash Zone and start trading with me to see for yourself what a membership can do for your portfolio. Sign up for a Free 7-Day Trial - with your subscription, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my chat-room that I trade in each day. Click Here to try it for Free!.

Here's your swing-trading watch-list:

Long Splunk (SPLK)

splk-1

Long Western Digital (WDC)

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There is a lot that could go bad this week. Apple (AAPL) earnings are after the bell, then you have Amazon (AMZN) later in the week. Not to mention the slew of economic news from the Fed tomorrow at 2pm eastern when they release their FOMC Statement and then again with the GDP to close the week out. 

A combination or all of these events coming in sour for investors could lead to some downside in the market. For the past two weeks now, the market has essentially stood still and waited for these events to unfold - as can be seen by the insanely tight price action and lack of market volume. 

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Technical Outlook:

  • Extremely dull price action has a grip on the market right now. That should change tomorrow when the Fed's FOMC Statement comes out. 
  • For the better part of two weeks the major indices have traded sideways. tight trading range
  • SPX had a real chance for a breakdown yesterday and instead, it rallied  hard into the close, erasing over half of the day's losses. 
  • Apple (AAPL) reports earnings after the close and its impact will be felt across the board. 
  • The tight trading range over the last two weeks signifies that the market isn't necessarily in the business of pulling back as much as it is into correcting through time. 
  • 10-day moving average tested and held yesterday for a third straight day. 
  • Oil continues to fall hard. USO for instance is looking at an open below the 50% retracement level off of its February lows. That would be significant. 
  • If the slide continues, in the very near future, stocks will start reacting adversely to it. 
  • VIX saw a hard spike higher into the upper 13's yesterday, but gave back half of its gains to close back below the critical 13 level. 
  • Since the 20th of July the 30-minute chart of SPX has been extremely choppy with strong moves in both directions without any sustainability. 
  • Tomorrow is FOMC day - volume will be likely light. 
  • Tons of earnings reports this week and next. This week will see weakness creep back in to the market if big names disappoint. 
  • The market is climbing the wall of worry, and despite what we might think or the overall economy, central banks are providing accommodating policy which will make a major sell-off difficult, particularly when the Fed seems unwilling to raise interest rates any time soon. 
  • Fed will be releasing its FOMC Statement at 2pm eastern on Wednesday. No press conference is scheduled. 
  • Watch 2155 on SPX - a break of this price level could lead to further selling today. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 
  • Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

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