Bulls are back to being in full control of this market. We got today what we haven't gotten in a long time from the market and that is follow through.
If there is a chart out thre after the past two days that is still sporting a bearish chart. Dump it! Dump it fast, because any stock that can't rally when then market has popped 40 points on the S&P 500, is a sign that the stock is going nowhere.
I've scoured the planet to find stocks that are doing exactly that - still showing a bad chart in a suddenly good market. These are the ones you want to avoid for sure, and even short, if this rally was to suddenly come to an end.
I'm not shorting any of these stocks. I'm not shorting anything at all. This market is trying to roll, and I'm just trying to hop on board. Just familiarize yourself with these stocks, know the charts, and be ready to act if the market gives you a reason to.
That afternoon sell off has been strong of late, but the bull flag held strong on the charts and the breakout is still in play. Should you be short right now? Not according to the charts. Yes, there is plenty of headline risk out there, and North Korea is firing some missiles today, but the market seems unfazed. But you have a meeting at the White House with the entire Senate tomorrow, and bank on whatever is talked about being leaked to the media.
You simply cannot get 100 senators together and expect them all to remain tight-lipped. That is an odd event, because I can't recall that happening in recent history summoning the entire Senate to the White House. I don't necessarily think that means we will go to war with them Thursday morning, but I think things are getting much more serious at this point with North Korea and that a strike is much more likely to happen now.
Long American Airlines (AAL)
Gap higher by +20 points and stay in cruise control the rest of the day - not a bad way to start the week. Especially considering how dull the market has been over the last couple of months. Now there is new life to the market. The bull flag that SPX has been trading in for the past two months has been broken and despite all the days where the market couldn't buy a rally, it is now trading above all of its moving averages.
Not a bad way to start your week, if you are long on the market (and yes, I am long on the market). It all goes back to what I have been saying in these morning writeups, and that is, the market has been far too dull for a strong short conviction. The bears have, no doubt, had plenty of opportunity to sell this market off, but each time they are given the opportunity, they lack the willingness to push the market lower.
Today could be interesting though, because often times when you have a big gap on Sunday night, it often leads to a fade throughout the trading day. More so with gaps that are lower, but I've seen it with these too. As a result, the bulls will need to make sure they don't let the market play with the gap this morning and try to fill it.
The futures are rocking tonight. Le Pen and that left wing nut didn't take first and second, so the futures are liking the notion a centrist is likely to win the second round (Macron), as if this is some kind of bracketology, a la March Madness. Nonetheless, I booked some profits in my long positions on Friday with UPRO and BA. Yeah, it would be nice to have held on to these positions over the weekend, but c'mon, I'm not a french political expert and neither are you, and had the elections turned out differently , we'd be looking at a 200 point gap down. Fortunately, the market got the best case scenario. Le Pen, won't win the next round, final round, second, round or Mortal Kombat "FINISH HER" round so, the market likes what it sees, and now it is rallying like the monster it wished it had been these past two months.
Just remember the Sunday market gap ups are often faded, so just because it looks like a sure thing we rally tomorrow, it isn't necessarily so. Watch the gap and make sure the bulls are intent on holding their ground and not fading the open.
Long R.R. Donnelley (RRD)
Everything looked fine and dandy yesterday for the market, and resistance at the 50-day moving average that I talked about in yesterday's trading plan, was going to be broken. But with 10 minutes to go, the bears dropped the S&P 500 5 points and, despite a solid rally yesterday, closed the index a half point below the 50-day moving average.
That makes follow thorugh today, extremely, extremely important. And that is one thing that this market has lacked of late is any kind of real follow through. The last bounce that we had on Monday, did not have that follow through and over the last two months there have been numerous attempts at a bounce but all but one of them failed to ever get any follow through the next day. The only one that did follow through was the rally off of the 3/27 lows.
You also have downward resistance off of the 3/1 highs that the bulls are dealing with today, that if it breaks would also represent a breakout of the bull flag. Once again, the bulls were above this declining resistance level, until the last 10 minutes of trading when SPX sold off 5 points. As a result, it tabled the bull flag break out as well.
Yesterday's move, as nice as it was on the whole for the bulls, means nothing if there isn't a respectable amount of follow through today.
Long Netflix (NFLX)
It had been acting as support prior to its break last week, but now the 50 day moving average has firmly converted itself into resistance overhead. Following the break last Tuesday, it has gotten close to pushing back above the 50 day moving average but each time it even gets close to the MA it has resulted in a sell-off, especially yesterday which showed strong potential to break through it prior to the afternoon meltdown.
This kind of market environment can be frustrating for traders, but the key is not to spend your entire day trading all over the place, thinking that will get the market to break through the resistance or sustain a rally.
Pick and choose what stocks you are going to trade during this time, careful with the entries. But above all else, don't overtrade and don't chase big moves in stocks. Find opportunities in stocks coming right out of consolidation.
And remember too, while the action in this market has been bearish in 9 out of the last 13 trading sessions, they have yet to really push this market lower. One big rally and you wipe out most of the month's losses if not all of them, depending on the size of the rally. We are also trading inside of a massive bull flag that should price action breakout to the upside, should lead to a big expansion in price across all the indices (except the Russell of course, because the market loves to whip out the beating stick on the small caps).
Long Weyerhaeuser (WY)
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