Technical Outlook:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) rallied back into the range high resistance yesterday, and potentially nullifying the pullback opportunity the market was looking going into the week. stock market range trading
  • SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) volume dropped off yesterday from the previous day's above average reading. Now it is in line with what what we have seen over the past week. 
  • On the 30 minute chart of SPX, there is a clear downtrend in place that has yet to be broken with lower-highs and lower-lows. 
  • USD/JPY continues its rally via BoJ intervention. Up another 0.5% this morning. 
  • The 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages are all separated by less than a 3 point margin. The price range is tight, and is the tightest that this market has seen over a 30 day period since 1965 (that would be 51 years!).
  • Stocks are continuing to lose momentum under the surface despite the market within points of its all-time highs. This can be most clearly seen by looking at the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average. Since July 18th, that number has dropped from 80% down to 59%. 
  • The market consolidated in a similar manner this time last year before ultimately leading to a large sell-off. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) had one of its regular meltdowns, opening up higher but quickly giving up its gains and finishing 5.2% lower at 12.94. 
  • The market is showing a decoupling from oil as the rise and fall of the commodity in June, July and now August has not impacted the market substantially. 
  • Three support levels to watch going forward on SPX is 2168, 2155, and 2147. The breaks are only valid if the price can close below those support levels. 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has a double top that confirms on a move below 18247. 

My Trades:

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August has been great for trading! Join the SharePlanner Splash Zone and start trading with me to see for yourself what a membership can do for your portfolio. Sign up for a Free 7-Day Trial - with your subscription, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my chat-room that I trade in each day. Click Here to try it for Free!

Here's your swing-trading watch-list:

Long Terex (TEX)

tex

Long Teck Resources (TCK)

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If you are looking for a trend on the daily or any clue as to the direction of this market, you won't find it by looking at the daily chart on the S&P 500 (SPX). In fact, you will have to drill down into the intradays, namely the hourly or half-hour chart to find what the market is really doing under the surface, and that is, it is stuck in a downtrend, while rallying today following an established lower-low on Friday. stock market still falling

Follow me so far? Essentially, don't be fooled by this bounce today. Yes it sucks, if you are trying to follow a trend, but it doesn't resolve anything for you the trader.

Unless it can find a way to break through 2185 before the close, this market should still be treated like the bear it is

And for the bears, it really needs man-up and do something for once, the bulls are barely putting up a fight, yet the bears remain unable to drive any real fear into this market.

Yes there was the sell-off on Friday which was amazing, but it only lasted, oh, until the bull's "scheduled-ramp-higher-at-the-close-appointment" that it has nearly every day. 

Ok, I'm just going to stop there, and let you see what I'm talking about in the chart below. 

Stocks Rally But Market Still Stuck in a Short-Term Downtrend

Bulls are trying to nudge their way back into the drivers seat of this market, and so far it is working for them. 

Here's the thing, speaking from the technical aspect of trading, I really don't care about P/E's or what the analysts are saying about a particular stock or the market as a whole. What I do care about is there being a legitimate direction to this market. Even if it is range-bound, at least trade in a range that can experience some movement in price because right now, there is none of that going on. Instead it is a flat, non-committal market. So today's rally doesn't improve that at all, it simply keeps them market from breaking down, while showing no intentions of wanting to break out to new all-time highs.

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Technical Outlook:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) saw a massive reversal on Friday following an attempt at establishing new all-time trading highs. Despite the breadth and extent of the sell-off, the bears managed to rally SPX back close to break even on the day.spx finding direction range bound 
  • SPX is down 3 straight days, but still has yet to manage to even pullback 1% in total during that time. 
  • Third straight day of trading for SPX below the 20-day moving average, with the 5-day now crossing below the 20-day MA for the first time since July 5th. 
  • SPX could create a lower-low if the bulls can drive price below the August 2nd lows at 2147. 
  • There was a 77% increase in the SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) volume on Friday from the day before and the highest volume reading since July 8th. 
  • Sharp reversal on Friday, increases the possibility of a rate hike this year, and the possibility of even two more (though I find the latter very, very unlikely). Odds for a September rate hike increased as well, though that scenario also seems very unlikely. 
  • Three support levels to watch going forward on SPX is 2168, 2155, and 2147. The breaks are only valid if the price can close below those support levels. 
  • The dip buyers are still alive in the last hour of trading and even more so when the market is showing notable weakness going into the close. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) showing signs of finally emerging out of its base of the past month. Despite sell-off at the highs, the rally into the close managed to keep the VIX from only rising 0.15% on the day. 
  • 30 minute price action of SPX maintains a nice double top pattern over the past two weeks of trading as well as a nice series of lower-highs and lower-lows over the past week. 
  • Oil still struggling to find buyers over the past week, is at risk again to test the August lows again in the coming weeks. 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has a double top that confirms on a move below 18247. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 

My Trades:

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August has been great for trading! Join the SharePlanner Splash Zone and start trading with me to see for yourself what a membership can do for your portfolio. Sign up for a Free 7-Day Trial - with your subscription, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my chat-room that I trade in each day. Click Here to try it for Free!

Here's your swing-trading watch-list:

Short Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

wynn-1

Short Triumph Group (TGI)

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The S&P 500 (SPX) is down for the month, meanwhile, traders in the SharePlanner Splash Zone are trading with profits.

The market has frustrated traders across the spectrum with its mind numbing and dull price action, but in Splash Zone, I have managed to add another month of profitability. 

Here are August's results so far...

ryan mallory swing trading past performance august

As you can see I consistently keep risk tight and don't let the losing trades get away from me. I cut them out of my portfolio before they have a chance

I have employed a strategy for much of this month of trading both long and short due to the lack of action from the market and when Janet Yellen spoke on Friday, I had the flexibility in the portfolio to quickly get bearish as I did with buying SPXU at $22.99. 

And did I mention that I am one of the only, if not the only, service that provides a full track record and disclosure of every single trade that I have ever made in the Splash Zone? Years and years worth of data that you can check out for yourself by going to my past performance page

Do what is right for you and for your trading experience and sign up for a Free 7-Day Trial to the SharePlanner Splash Zone

With your membership you will get access to all of my real-time trades, the chat room that I trade from each day, as well as my real-time trade alerts via text and email. It is Free for the first 7 days and you can cancel at anytime. If you don't have the time to trade for yourself, you can trade through eOption or Global Auto-Trading and they will automate all my trades in your account for you.  

With The Splash Zone, you will get my low risk and high probability trade setups that no other trading service can offer.

join-me-in-the-splash-zone

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I've put together a quick video talking about the current state of the stock market, key stocks and the major indices in general. 

I cover the following stocks: IBM, MCD, ADBE, NFLX, FB, AMZN, GOOGL, CMI, SINAcancel all order cramer doesnt know what to do

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Technical Outlook:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) continued its selling yesterday for the fourth time in the last 5 trading sessions. janet yellen stock market control pump scheme trading
  • Currently SPX is down for the month, albeit less than one point. If this holds, it will snap a the market's streak of five months trading higher. 
  • Watch 2168 today on SPX. If that price level breaks, you'll likely see a move towards the lower 2150 to challenge the current higher-low. 
  • SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) volume fell off a slight bit yesterday - overall the volume reading was just below recent averages. 
  • The 20-day moving average remains broken. On the daily bands, SPX is now trading in the lower region. 
  • Today's price action will be headlined by Janet Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole at 10am eastern. Expect a greater amount of volatility than what we have seen of late to ensue. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) is trying to come out of its most recent base, but will need to see some follow through in order to keep the market bulls from driving it lower again. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) shows stocks are weakening much quick under the surface than what the market indices suggest. 
  • Only 60% of stocks are trading above their 40-day moving average. 
  • Oil showing some signs of trying to stabilize its price with a bull flag trying to now form on the United States Oil Fund (USO)
  • 30 minute chart of SPX shows that a double top pattern is still very well alive and close to confirming. 
  • SPX attempting to sell off for a second consecutive week, which is something that hasn't been seen since the 3 week Brexit sell-off (also counting the two weeks that led up to it).
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is starting to give more legitimacy to the double top possibilities with yesterday's sell-off. 
  • Overall, August is the worst performing month for the Dow and S&P 500. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 

My Trades:

Read more...

August has been great for trading! Join the SharePlanner Splash Zone and start trading with me to see for yourself what a membership can do for your portfolio. Sign up for a Free 7-Day Trial - with your subscription, you will get each and every trade that I make with real-time text and email alerts (international too) as well as access to my chat-room that I trade in each day. Click Here to try it for Free!

Here's your swing-trading watch-list:

Long TD Ameritrade (AMTD)

amtd

Long TTM Technologies (TTMI)

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