Yesterday the market showed signs of the bottom falling out, today the market is acting like yesterday never even happened. 

That creates a market that requires blind faith when buying and blind faith when shorting, because regardless of the support that is broken or the breach in resistance that is achieved, there really is no boundaries for the market in terms of consistencies in patterns it tries to form.

Instead the market can be compared to a feather that floats aimlessly while caught up in an afternoon breeze. 

So focusing on tomorrow, there is just as good of a chance that SPX finishes up 1% higher as it does with finishing 1% lower. The edge in determining short-term market direction is absent yet again. With that said, I have provided some of my short setups, but I haven't acted on any of them, as the market is pressing the shorts hard today, and provides us with no reason as of yet to add any of the short setups below. The 2120-2122 range on SPX is going to be key going forward and if it can break back above it, there may be a slight edge for the bulls to play with. 

Here's the list of short setups:

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Technical Outlook:

  • Heavy sell-off yesterday completely changed the nature of the market. 
  • SPX broke back down and below key support at 2120, which now becomes resistance again. 
  • The breakout above the 2120 resistance level two weeks ago is now labeled a 'head-fake'. 
  • The trend-line off of the February lows was broken yesterday, and today the key trend-line to watch is the one off of the March lows at 2078. 
  • There is obviously the potential for a bounce today, but I would be careful with piling up any significant amount of long positions today, as it could very easily turn into a dead cat bounce and the market resumes its selling to the downside. 
  • Oil showing signs of breaking down again and could weigh heavily on price action of the broader market as well. 
  • VIX popped 16% yesterday - all the way up to 14.06 
  • The most mesmerizing chart of the day came from the T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) where it saw a 22% drop all the way down to 39%
  • SPX 30 minute chart doesn't reveal much to glean from as it just continues to be mired in choppiness of late. 
  • Volume on SPY was notably stronger then anything we have seen in the past few weeks and well above average too. 
  • We still have a higher-high in place currently with SPX, and would need to break 2067 in order to form a new lower-low. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

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Here's today's swing-trading watch-list:

Short KLA-Tencor (KLAC)

klac

Short Schlumberger (SLB)

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This could be one of the worst collection of long setups I've put together in a long, long time. 

And trust me, it's not me, it's the charts. The setups are simply getting destroyed out there today. 

There are a few gems out there, like WDAY and QLGC, but WDAY reports earnings after the bell today, and quite frankly, if you are into the whole knife catching experience when it comes to this stock market, then by all means, go for it. But as for me, I am avoiding the long setups like the plague, and sticking with my lone short position that I have remaining in the portfolio right now. 

Also worth noting is that there's probably a 50% chance that the bulls can put together some kind of bounce tomorrow in the form of a dead cat bounce. Today's technical damage is mind numbing, and there is nothing fake about it. The VIX is up 18%, T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) is down a whopping 23% down to 38% overall. 

 So the weakness is there, and it is very apparent, and this just happens to be the first legitimate sell-off that we have seen since making new all-time highs last week. 

So yes, I'm holding off on these long setups. They are nowhere near being ripe and need to mature a bit more before even giving consideration to them. 

Here's the (sort-of) long setups for this week:

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Technical Outlook:

  • For the third time in four trading sessions, SPX finished lower on the day. 
  • Friday was a light volume day due to the holiday weekend, but the selling in the final half hour of trading was very disturbing for traders as the market fell about 5 points and wiped out the day's the minimal gains on the day. 
  • If SPX breaks 2120-2122, it could quickly see the selling accelerate and result in a sell-off that takes price back down to the trend-line that started off of the February lows. The currently level of support for that trend-line is 2110. 
  • VIX remained nearly unchanged closing 0.2% higher at 12.13.
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average is showing signs of rolling over with a 6.3% drop down to 50%.
  • We still have a higher-high in place currently with SPX, and would need to break 2067 in order to form a new lower-low. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart shows a great deal of consolidation over the last five trading sessions. Watch for a violation of this range on either side to determine short-term market direction going forward. 
  • Weekly chart of SPX shows a market in the early stages of a new leg higher. However, there is also a maturing bearish wedge that could be threatened if SPX manages to rally into the 2160's-70's. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Learn to take low-risk swing-trading setups by joining me in the SharePlanner Splash Zone. You can try try it out today with a with a Free 7-Day Trial. With your membership, you will receive all of my swing-trade alerts via email and text (international too) as well as access to my world-class chat-room that I trade in each and every day. Click Here to Join!

Here's today's swing-trading watch-list:

Long Transocean (RIG)

t-rig-1

Long ArcelorMittal (MT)

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Technical Outlook:

  • SPY yesterday managed to engulf the previous day's candle body. 
  • SPX managed again to show strength and a willingness to buy when the 5-day moving average was tested. 
  • Volume on SPY is dramatically weakening this week due the holiday weekend ahead, and I suspect it will be even worse today. 
  • Watch 2107 - the trend-line off of the February lows of SPX. If that price level breaks, so does the rising support level. 
  • Massive drop in VIX yesterday which exhibited a massive breakdown below the key support level that was rising off of the July lows. Dropped 6% down to 12.11. 
  • Since last Friday, the T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) has really struggled to find any traction. It is a rare site to see SPX trading at new all-time highs, and T2108 only at 53%. 
  • Oil has shown far greater volatility in the past few days then what we had previously seen over the past two months. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart has consolidated over the past three days. 
  • Weekly chart of SPX shows a market in the early stages of a new leg higher. However, there is also a maturing bearish wedge that could be threatened if SPX manages to rally into the 2160's-70's. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Read more...

Learn to take low-risk swing-trading setups by joining me in the SharePlanner Splash Zone. You can try try it out today with a with a Free 7-Day Trial. With your membership, you will receive all of my swing-trade alerts via email and text (international too) as well as access to my world-class chat-room that I trade in each and every day. Click Here to Join!

Here's today's swing-trading watch-list:

Long Microsoft (MSFT)

msft

Long Hasbro (HAS)

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Technical Outlook:

  • Fairly quiet session of trading yesterday until the FOMC minutes came out which created a stir as well as a false break higher that was quickly sold. 
  • Oil has shown far greater volatility in the past few days then what we had previously seen over the past two months. 
  • 5-day moving average for SPX continues to remain strong for price action and SPX has shown a willingness to bounce off of it on the retests. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart has consolidated over the past two days. 
  • VIX continues to hug the July '14 support/trend line, as VIX only rose 0.2% to 12.88. 
  • Volume still coming in at well below average levels - not uncommon during a holiday week. 
  • All SPX needed to insure was that it held the 2120 breakout level and it did. 
  • Weekly chart of SPX shows a market in the early stages of a new leg higher. However, there is also a maturing bearish wedge that could be threatened if SPX manages to rally into the 2160's-70's. 
  • The market doesn't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:


  • Added one new long position yesterday. 
  • Closed out UNM yesterday at 35.01 for a 0.1% gain. 
  • 40% long / 60% cash. 
  • Remain long: C at 54.58, AAPL at 128.45, MHFI at 107.79.
  • I'll consider adding 1-2 new long positions to the portfolio today as long as SPX stays above 2120. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-21-15

Learn to take low-risk swing-trading setups by joining me in the SharePlanner Splash Zone. You can try try it out today with a with a Free 7-Day Trial. With your membership, you will receive all of my swing-trade alerts via email and text (international too) as well as access to my world-class chat-room that I trade in each and every day. Click Here to Join!

Here's today's swing-trading watch-list:

Long Packaging (PKG)

pkg

Long NXP Semiconductor (NXPI)

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