In advance of Britain's "Brexit" or "Bremain" vote on Thursday, June 23, the British Pound has gained momentum as of last week. 

The current price of the GBP/USD Forex pair is 1.4581, as shown on the Monthly chart below. It will need to break and stay above that level and, potentially retest 1.50, which represents the next long-term resistance level.

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If WTIC Crude Oil breaks below it's current (very tight) uptrend line, watch for the Canadian Loonie to tank.
As shown on the following 5-Year Daily chart comparing the two, they normally trade lock-step. Note the recent divergence of the Loonie starting in April and the fact that the RSI and MACD have fallen below the 50 level...which are hinting of further weakness ahead for Oil.

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What a mess! A drop and hold below 100 will signal that a big downdraft is in store for equities, as shown on the following Monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart.

Further background information can be found at this last post on the ratio.

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In my post of December 29, 2015, I stressed the importance of the Financials ETF (XLF) in, potentially, propelling the SPX to an increase of 5-6% for 2016.

You can see from the Daily ratio chart below of XLF:SPX, that price weakened considerably afterwards and fell to new lows not seen since 2012.

Price is attempting to stabilize above that low, but all three indicators are still in downtrend and display new "SELL" signals, and price action is still under the bearish influence of the Death Cross formation of the moving averages.

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Further to my posts of January 29 and February 17 (& March 3 update), price action on the SPX:VIX ratio has rallied and is now in between major support of 150 and major resistance at 160, as shown on the following monthly chart. The momentum indicator has also risen above the zero level and is hinting of higher prices to come at some point on this longer term timeframe.

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New "BUY" signals have just formed on the RSI, MACD and PMO indicators for:

  • SPX:VIX ratio: Price still needs to cross and remain above the 100 level, as outlined in my post of January 29th, and, thus, is still aimless and directionless within the "Uncommitted Zone."
 
New Buy Signals for Equities
 

As WTIC Crude Oil goes, so goes Deutsche Bank, as shown on the 5-Year Daily comparison chart below.

Banks and Oil Don't Mix


Right after the opening bell this morning, DB made a new 5-year low of 15.95, as shown on the Daily chart below. There's no confirmation of a reversal in sight, technically, yet for DB, although the RSI may be hinting at a bit of a slowdown in the plunge.

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Japan's Nikkei Index is currently trading just above the 17,000 level as I write this post around 9:00 pm ET Tuesday and is down around 3.3% from yesterday's close. You can see from the Monthly chart below that this is around the same level just before the 2007/08 crash.

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Was today's (Friday's) world-market rally serious and sustainable, or simply a knee-jerk reaction to Japan's surprise NIRP (negative interest rate policy) announcement last night (including some shorter-term short-covering action) and "end-of-month window dressing" by fund managers?
Perhaps the following update to my last post will provide some further insight into that question, as I review a variety of markets.

YM, ES, NQ, TF and NKD E-Mini Futures Indices:


The following Daily Heikin Ashi candle chartgrid of these E-mini futures indices shows a potential bullish reversal pattern as of today's close. We'll need to see a higher closing candle on Monday to confirm that a continued rally is possible.

It's Now or Never For Bulls


The following Weekly Heikin Ashi candle chartgrid of these E-mini futures indices does not yet show a bullish reversal pattern. However, the NKD (Nikkei E-mini Futures Index) has paused in its downtrend, so it's hinting of a possible turnaround. We'll need to see how next week closes before rendering a position on a weekly timeframe.

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oh canada oilIn my post of January 8, 2012, there was much talk of a potential recession coming to Canada.

Since then, you can see from the 5-Year comparison chart below of Canada's TSX and EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), that they have traded, essentially, lock-step. Both are in bear markets since their highs in September 2014 -- the TSX is -20.8% and EEM is -33.79%.

The Canadian Economy: Was This A Warning?


The next 3-Year comparison chart shows the big reason why...namely, the gyrating price (both to the upside and downside) of WTIC Crude Oil, which has had a major impact on Canada's TSX. Oil is -71.45% since June 2014.

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