This week's update will look at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • SPX:VIX Ratio
  • Hypothetical Portfolio
  • Copper
  • Lumber
  • Homebuilders ETF
  • Emerging Markets ETF
  • 30-Year Bonds

6 Major Indices

As shown on the Weekly charts and the percentage gained/lost graphs below of the Major Indices, the largest gains were made in the Nasdaq 100, followed by the Russell 2000, S&P 500, Dow 30, and Dow Transports. There was some profit-taking in the Dow Utilities.
Money Flow for May Week 1

Further to my recent post wherein I introduced a hypothetical portfolio of indices, ETFs, and the 30-Year Bond (in order to broadly track "value" vs. "growth" sentiment), I would offer the following graph which depicts the percentages gained/lost so far this week (as of Thursday's close).

Market participants favoured the Technology sector, followed by Emerging Markets, Cyclicals, Large-caps, Commodities, Small-caps, and Financials. Homebuilders has been flat and some profits have been taken in the Health Care Sector. Some money was then allocated into 30-Year Bonds.

While there was a blip in volatility on Wednesday, the VIX dropped back below 14.00 on Thursday.

We can see that markets have been willing to add a fair bit of "risk." While volatility remains low, I'd suggest that we'll see the markets continue to buy into the "growth" sectors, along with "value" until this sentiment changes.
This weekend's market update will look at a broader flow of money for the entire week, so be sure to check back for that post.


Further to my last post, this update shows that money flow, as of 10:30 am today (Wednesday), has been out of equities and commodities and into 30-Year Bonds, as shown on the graph below.
We'll see if that holds, worsens, or reverses after the release of the Fed meeting rate announcement and press statement today at 2:00 pm EST.

Risk-off May Day

There's been a slight uptick in volatility today, as shown on the Daily chart of the VIX below. 14.00 seems to be a popular resistance/support level recently, so we'll see if it holds above (where it's sitting at the moment).


Just for fun, I thought I'd look at a few instruments to see their comparative growth during a one-year period as a broad measure of where "value" vs. "growth" sentiment currently is in a so-called "balanced portfolio." There are 10 in total, since that's the number I'm limited to showing on one graph.

Then, if one were so inclined, one could track the performance of this group for the rest of 2013 year to get an idea of general market trend, risk appetite, and the momentum of both.

The selections are based on the "low-growth macro-economic environment" and on the assumptions that the "BUZZ WORDS" will be with us and will continue to define World Central Bank and global market activity for the rest of the year.
I, therefore, dub this a "hypothetical canary portfolio." 

As shown on the 1-year percentage gained/lost graph below, I've selected three of the Major Indices, the Commodities Index, the Financial, Health Care, and Cyclical Sectors, the Home Builder and Emerging Markets ETFs, and 30-Year Bonds. I thought such a basket could represent a good cross-section of "value vs. growth segments" and be worth monitoring. No doubt there are many other portfolio combinations, but this is the mix that I've chosen.
You can see that the Homebuilders ETF has gained the most, followed by Health Care, Financials, Cyclicals, Small-Caps, and Large-Caps. During the past year, Technology, Emerging Markets, 30-Year Bonds, and Commodities have lagged. We'll see whether traders step in any time soon to add these laggards (except Bonds) into their portfolios, thereby increasing "risk" in this projected "low-growth macro-economic environment." Whether they rotate out of the "leading value instruments" and/or Bonds in order to fund such acquisitions remains to be seen.

A Hypothetical Canary Portfolio



This week's update will look at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • Channel/Fibonacci Projections to the End of Q2 of 2013 for 6 Major Indices

6 Major Indices

As shown on the Weekly charts and the percentage gained/lost graph below of the Major Indices, the largest gains were made in the Russell 2000, followed by the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Transports, Dow 30, and Dow Utilities.
Money Flow for April Week 4


Money Flow for April Week 4

9 Major Sectors

As shown on the Weekly charts and the percentage gained/lost graph below of the Major Sectors, the largest gains were made in Energy, followed by Materials, Financials, Technology, Industrials, Cyclicals, and Utilities. Consumer Staples and Health Care were just below flat on the week.

In this global "LOW-GROWTH" macro-economic environment, I would use the following "BUZZ WORDS" to define World Central Bank and global market activity for 2013, as I see it at present.
*(I may update this list as the year progresses, as various scenarios become clearer, and as new events unfold.)

  • the Fed's "QUANTITATIVE EASING" program ("QE") of buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities
  • the Fed (and other Central Bankers around the world) provides low interest-rate loans to Banks
  • Banks are supposed to make this money available to companies and individuals at low rates that they deem appropriate (however, as demand for loans picks up, no doubt the Banks will raise interest rates, even though the Fed may not...a risk that will have to be factored into a company's costs)
  • the Fed's goal is to produce a "WEALTH EFFECT" (precisely who will benefit remains to be seen)


  • wholesale and retail prices of goods and services
  • price of stocks, commodities, etc.
  • taxes
  • interest rates (and, thus, the nest eggs of 'savers')
  • market volatility
  • the value of currencies (e.g., the Yen)
  • introduce company share buy-back programs
  • increase dividends
  • offer or enhance preferred-share programs
  • issue or enhance corporate bond programs

Equity markets plunged in a matter of a couple of minutes today (Tuesday) after a "bogus" tweet was made from a hacked Associated Press Twitter account.


How will fund managers, as well as the "average investor," hedge against this new risk in the current environment where we've seen increasing incidents of cyber attacks around the world?
Those already in the market who have a stop loss set on their trades (within the ensuing price spike) will be taken out by "High-Frequency Algorithmic Trading" (and not necessarily anywhere near the price of their stop loss, but it could be much lower), and those who don't are at the mercy of market reaction to the HFT trades.
Reality bites...

The New Threat to Markets...Cyber Attacks on Social Media Accounts

The following article regarding the AP Tweet is from ZeroHedge:


The Advance GDP q/q estimate for Q1 of 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, as shown on the graph below...up from the 0.4% revised data reported for Q4 of 2012...and it is being released on Friday, April 26 at 8:30 am EST.

As you can see, the GDP numbers have been in a downtrend from January of 2010. If such a rise were to occur as forecast, it would penetrate above this trend, but would still lie within the 3-year range. It would take a higher number for the next quarterly report (for Q2) to confirm that the current downtrend has, in fact, been broken.

Friday's Advance GDP Projections and Gold

Since inflation is anticipated to have risen at such a rate as forecast, I find that 'interesting and we may see an attempt at a bounce in Gold this week. However, any rally from its lows of last week may occur on a low-volume 'dead-cat bounce' (particularly on any overnight rallies) and may not be sustainable in the near or intermediate to watch this week, particularly on Friday.
As you can see on the Weekly chart of Gold below, the next levels of major volume/price support lie at 1150 and 1000.

Friday's Advance GDP Projections and Gold ...


Source: Strawberry Blonde

Volatility, profit-taking, mayhem, and tragedy...this is how I'd summarize the events that took place in world markets, as well as on American soil, this past week. My deepest sympathies go out to those law enforcement, fire fighting, and civilian victims who died or were injured in connection with the Boston marathon bombings and the Texas fertilizer plant explosions, and to all their friends and families. My thoughts and prayers are with you...may we all find answers to these terrible tragedies, and, may all those who are responsible, be brought to justice.
This week's update will look at:

  1. Nine 1-Year Daily thumbnail chartgrids of a variety of markets around the world
  2. Nine 1-Week percentage gained/lost graphs of these markets (you can see which markets gained/lost this week, and by how much)
  3. Three Monthly charts of Lumber, Copper, and the Homebuilders ETF (XHB)
As you can see, this is a different format than I usually produce for these weekly summaries. With respect to items 1 and 2 above, I'll simply post each chartgrid, followed by its corresponding graph, without commentary. With regard to item 3, I'll provide some comments just before the three charts on those instruments.
What I will say, is that on the Item #1 charts, I would use the 50 ma (red) as a rough guide to act as the general daily trend and support indicator. When price is below that moving average, it is subject to 'bearish' influences, particularly in those instances where the 20 ma (blue) has crossed below the 50 ma. In that case, I'd look for areas of support below the 50 ma that would be formed by trendlines, prior consolidations, and a series of previous swing highs/lows, etc. From that, you can see how much further downside is available compared to potential retracement to the 1-year highs. Of course, on those charts where price is at a 1-year low, you'd have to bring up additional longer-term charts to see where you'd find potential support levels...this is not something I've done in this exercise. 
My purpose today is simply to show you, at a quick glance, where world markets are, whether they are in 'bull'  (above the 50 ma) or 'bear' (below the 50 ma) territory, if any are still making new 1-year highs, and how far others have pulled back from their highs. This shows which areas are stronger and may continue to show leadership going forward, and, if they do, we may see those areas which have weakened considerably begin to rally. Otherwise, a continued drop in the weaker issues may, finally, weigh negatively on all markets to produce a larger, more general, pullback, or even a correction.
In general, it appears that the U.S. $ and 30-Year Bonds are still considered to be the 'safe-haven' plays.

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight interest rate at 1% today (Wednesday), cut its 2013 economic growth forecast to 1.5% from 2%, and raised its 2014 economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.7%.
You can watch BOC Governor Carney's subsequent press conference. I found his response to this question from a member of the press rather "curious." When asked, "What can you say about the plunge in the price of gold this week?" he responded with "It's not a market that we follow closely." (I have to give him credit for holding a straight face while gave his answer...however, Senior Deputy Governor Macklem, to his right was not quite so skilled.) He went on to say that they (BOC) were more interested in a variety of other commodities (he mentioned oil and lumber) as being more indicative and leading indicators of global growth prospects, and that one could point to the base metals in that regard.

As I write this at 10:30 am EST, most of the commodities in my list are down and Canada's TSX Index is down 103.21 from yesterday's close. Most world market indices are also down.
Continued weakness in commodities may, finally, weigh negatively on equities.

UPDATE at 4:30 pm EST - As an example of a base metal that they are likely monitoring, copper is down nearly 4% today and is currently trading at 3.1765. Contrast that with its high of 4.6495 reached in February 2011, and it's down by 32% from that level. The chart below shows that a bearish "Death Cross" has formed recently on the Weekly timeframe as price has fallen below 5-Year major price, moving average, Fibonacci, and volume support to watch going forward, along with other commodities that I've mentioned in the above referenced (and even older) posts.

BOC Maintains Interest Rate Lowers 2013 Forecast


BOC Maintains Interest Rate Lowers 2013 Forecast


BOC Maintains Interest Rate Lowers 2013 Forecast


BOC Maintains Interest Rate Lowers 2013 Forecast

(Excerpt from BOC press release)

BOC Maintains Interest Rate Lowers 2013 Forecast


BOC Maintains Interest Rate Lowers 2013 Forecast

World Market Index Source:

BOC Maintains Interest Rate Lowers 2013 Forecast

Source: Strawberry Blonde

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