by Strawberry Blonde

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight interest rate at 1% today (Wednesday), cut its 2013 economic growth forecast to 1.5% from 2%, and raised its 2014 economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.7%.
You can watch BOC Governor Carney's subsequent press conference. I found his response to this question from a member of the press rather "curious." When asked, "What can you say about the plunge in the price of gold this week?" he responded with "It's not a market that we follow closely." (I have to give him credit for holding a straight face while gave his answer...however, Senior Deputy Governor Macklem, to his right was not quite so skilled.) He went on to say that they (BOC) were more interested in a variety of other commodities (he mentioned oil and lumber) as being more indicative and leading indicators of global growth prospects, and that one could point to the base metals in that regard.

As I write this at 10:30 am EST, most of the commodities in my list are down and Canada's TSX Index is down 103.21 from yesterday's close. Most world market indices are also down.
Continued weakness in commodities may, finally, weigh negatively on equities.

UPDATE at 4:30 pm EST - As an example of a base metal that they are likely monitoring, copper is down nearly 4% today and is currently trading at 3.1765. Contrast that with its high of 4.6495 reached in February 2011, and it's down by 32% from that level. The chart below shows that a bearish "Death Cross" has formed recently on the Weekly timeframe as price has fallen below 5-Year major price, moving average, Fibonacci, and volume support levels....one to watch going forward, along with other commodities that I've mentioned in the above referenced (and even older) posts.

(Excerpt from BOC press release)

World Market Index Source: http://www.indexq.org/

Source: Strawberry Blonde

by Strawberry Blonde

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Source: Strawberry Blonde

by Strawberry Blonde

I'd have to say that continuing weak economic data had not been priced into either commodities or equities, as evidenced by today's (Monday's) drop, so far.
No doubt, any large players who were long Gold and other commodities will be forced to dump their equity holdings to cover losses.
Most world indices are deep in negative territory today.

by Strawberry Blonde

The following Weekly charts of Gold and Silver show that the next major volume support levels, as depicted in their Volume Profiles along the right side of each chart, are:

• 1360ish for Gold. and 
• 18.00ish for Silver

by Strawberry Blonde

This Reuters article appeared today (Saturday). I've flagged (green and red) what I thought to be important aspects of the article.

• It seems that an EU banking union is not on the front burner, as it first requires a change to the EU treaty.
• Also, note the red flag around Mr. Shaeuble's last remarks...this strikes me as a plain warning for bank depositors. 
• Plus his second-last remarks would seem to indicate that other countries may, indeed, face a fate similar to that imposed on Cyprus.

by Strawberry Blonde

This week's update will look at:

• 6 Major Indices
• 9 Major Sectors
• Commodities, Homebuilders, USD, & USB vs. Major Indices vs. Major Sectors

6 Major Indices

9 Major Sectors

Commodities, Homebuilders, USD, & USB vs. Major Indices vs. Major Sectors

by Strawberry Blonde

Data released today (Thursday) shows that import and export prices are still in an overall downtrend from 2009, as shown below.
Data sources: here and here

This downtrend is still in place in spite of the Fed's massive money-printing efforts to reflate prices to those seen leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. The world-wide slowdown in demand has created this downtrend, in spite of the sharp divergence in trend in the stock markets, as shown on the Weekly chart of the SPX below.
This chart definitely does not reflect the reality of this slow-down, as the equity markets seem to be operating solely under the influence of Central Banks around the world, and not on, what used to be, the laws of market supply and demand...they have simply morphed into a 'tool' used by Central Bankers.

In the meantime, the US National Debt continues to accelerate unabated. Read more...

by Strawberry Blonde

The following 3 Daily ratio charts show that:

• the SPX is outperforming the VIX, but the ratio is at a major resistance level...the Momentum indicator has just turned positive above the Zero level
• the NDX is struggling to outperform the VXN, and the ratio is at a downtrend resistance and well below a major resistance level...the Momentum indicator has turned up and is just below the Zero level
• the RUT is also struggling to outperform the RVX, and the ratio is well below a downtrend resistance and below two major resistance levels...the Momentum indicator has turned up and is just below the Zero level