I'm on holiday in Spain for a few days and the place I'm staying is just beautiful. The scenery is lovely, the hotel is nice, the food is great, and the internet access is terrible. I can get internet access in only two places here, in the main bar and in hotel reception, and it's as though I have stepped back into the 1990s. I'm writing this from the bar this morning but, realistically my ability to keep up with the markets from here is going to be very limited and, this will therefore be the last daily post until I'm back at home on Friday 20th July. I'll be checking in from time to time and will post any interesting charts on twitter at @shjackcharts. I'll also do my MarketShadows weekend post on Saturday and will tweet that when I've posted it.
The SPX low on Friday was a very nice technical low and I would generally expect that to be the short term swing low. Here's the chart I posted on twitter on Friday afternoon showing the very nice W bottom that formed on positive RSI divergence on the SPX 15min chart:
I see the futures have been weak overnight, and if we see further weakness into the open I have strong support
in the 1335-40 SPX area. A break below there would look impressively bearish
but there would be one further key level of support below and that is rising support from the early June low in the 1325 SPX area. Here are the key current trendlines from the SPX 60min chart I used in my weekend post On this chart you can also see that Friday's low was a retest of broken declining resistance
. If we're going to see another move up, Friday's bounce should be the low or close to it:
The other chart I used in my weekend post was for the longer term outlook, which in my view still looks bearish. There has been no confirmation from either bonds or copper for this rally on equities from the June low, and the setup here on 'Dr' Copper particularly looks very ominous, as you can see below on the weekly chart:
This move up doesn't look finished yet, and if it isn't, Friday's low area should hold in trading hours. If it doesn't then a break below 1335 SPX would look ominous, and a break below rising support in the 1325 SPX area would be a a major support break. As I mentioned, this will be the last daily post until late next week, but I'll be posting the some charts on twitter in the meantime.