Bears had a good day yesterday and the marginal swing high that I was looking for was not made. Does this mean that this seemingly eternal topping process is finally done? Well no, but it's a step closer to finished. As I mention regularly, there's no hurrying these things and topping processes particularly can test the patience of even the most experienced traders. It's coming, and coming soon, but there's still more to do as I'll show below.
On the daily chart the close was a marginal 2.5 handles below the daily middle band yesterday. The daily middle band is at 2178 at the time of writing and the bears would like another close below today that would ideally be at least 4 handles below. SPX daily chart:
On the SPX 15min chart I was writing last night that bears needed to break under 2168.50 double top support to eliminate a possible triangle option here. They haven't managed that yet today and at the time of writing I'm not that optimistic about seeing that today, though the bears have definitely not lost that battle yet. If they can break that 2168.50 SPX level then the swing high should be behind us. In the absence of that break the triangle option would strongly suggest that a last new high is still needed. SPX 15min chart:
On the RUT 15min chart I was saying that wedge support need to be tested at 1234/5 and we duly had that test this morning. That confirms a high quality rising wedge, but obviously that wedge support will still have to be broken to open up the downside. RUT 15min chart:
If I was a teacher writing a school report here, then I might well be saying that Ursus Jr had made a promising start to the move, but that more effort will be required, and that there are some significant milestones ahead that will need to be reached to take young Ursus where he wants to go. We'll see what he can do next :-)
While we are waiting the tape is getting more interesting at least. It should be a lot more interesting soon, but we're not quite there yet. Soon.