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If we are to see a retracement shortly, or indeed if the bears are to get the double-top they are looking for, then this is the place to see it.

At the least we should start seeing more two way action here now because SPX closed just under the weekly upper bollinger band on Friday. Weekly closes above this are rare, and even in a strong uptrend this can only rise 10-15 points per week, so more two way action now is likely. SPX weekly chart:

On the SPX 60 min chart I have trendline resistance in the 1697-1700 area, and a lot of negative 60min RSI divergence. SPX 60min chart:

 

On other US indices we are seeing the same negative RSI divergence and some signs of breakdown.

NDX broke trendline support first but WLSH and RUT also both broke trendline support from the June low on Friday. Here is the break below the very tight rising channel on the RUT 60min chart:

ES was strong overnight, peaking at 1694.25 before some retracement. if we are to see a short term high today I'd be looking for marginal higher high today on negative 60min RSI divergence. If that is in trading hours that shouldn't go much above 1700 SPX and the retracement from there should at least hit rising support from the June low, now in the 1670 area. ES 60min chart:

Last chart of the day is the CRB commodities index, which is now testing declining resistance from the 2008 high. This is a major trendline and a break above might well be a major break up for commodities. One to watch. CRB daily chart:

I'm posting this very early because I'm going to be out until late in the day now. I'm expecting to see a short term high today, though this market is very strong and this might not happen. As I am expecting higher afterwards this might in any case be a better buying opportunity at the retracement low than a short opportunity from the high. As ever the bulls have the edge as long as the ES 50 hour MA holds, and that is now n the 1683 area.

Source: Springheel Jack


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