There is now a very nicely formed rising wedge on the SPX chart, and the next obvious target within the wedge is wedge support, which closed the week in the 1975 area. For me that's the obvious target today though there is some decent support above that may hold. I'd note that I do have a less well formed variant of this wedge where the wedge has already overthrown bearishly. SPX 15min chart:


News is an odd thing nowadays. On the one hand NFP was a big beat, so the economy seems to be in better shape than everyone thought, so a recession is less likely -> BUY!. However that means that interest rates are now much more likely to increase again this year and that the ZIRP era is more likely to be drawing to a close -> SELL!. We'll see how that develops in RTH.

In the short term SPX looks likely to open in the 1995-2000 area that I was looking at yesterday morning (DONE AT 1996) and that may hold. If so then I'd be looking for at least a strong retracement, and possibly new lows for 2016. There is a lot of negative divergence here and this is the obvious area to fail. SPX 60min chart:


SPX inched a little higher to 1986 yesterday and there is a very possible fail area just a little higher. The main target level I've been looking at for this move is the 61.8% fib retracement in the 2000 area, and slightly below that I have possible rising wedge resistance, the daily upper band and the weekly middle band, all in the 1995 area at the close yesterday. There is a lot of negative divergence on SPX and ES here and we may well see a fail in that area. SPX daily chart:


That was a very impressive trend up day yesterday and SPX closed above rising wedge resistance. That may be overthrowing bearishly here, but is only one of the three possible decent resistance trendlines in play. If SPX reverses here and breaks down through wedge support, currently in the 1942 area, then the lowest trendline is right, and the wedge would then be breaking down. Until then though the alternate wedge resistance trendline is in the 1988 area and possible channel resistance is in the 2020 area.

In terms of resistance levels I'm looking for a buyable dip this morning and then a likely move with obvious targets at the 61.8% fib retrace target and 100dma at 2000, then the very important 100 week MA at 2011, and then the also very important 200dma now at 2025. This is the key resistance zone at 2000-25 and only on a conversion of the 200dma into support does making the IHS target in the 2080 area become a strong prospect. SPX 60min chart:


I saw a very interesting stat last week and I'll talk about that first this morning. The stat was at and you can see the article here. I've been looking hard at this and have a few comments to add in the current instance.

I would say first that I have not checked whether the statistic itself is correct and am assuming that the bare facts that these series have only occurred at these times since 1970 are correct. I think that is a reasonable assumption however, so am proceeding on that assumption unless I receive strong evidence to the contrary.

I have no issue with the basic conclusion with the article, that a series like this is found at or near the end of a decline, that it means that extensive further downside this year is unlikely, and that, with less confidence, the odds favor SPX being higher in a year than it was at the 1930 level reached at the close on 17th February, which was the last of this three day series in 2016, are pretty good.


It is February 29th today, which is a day first introduced by Julius Caesar in his major calendar reforms in 49 BC. These were a massive improvement on the old Roman calendar where accumulated errors means that the calendar regularly went seasons out of sync, which wreaked havoc with the dating of their seasonal festivals particularly, as it's a strange thing to be celebrating mid-winter festivals in the summertime and vice-versa for the mid-summer festivals.

It's also a lesson about how the second mouse can often get the (kudos) cheese. Caesar's massive reform was superb, but still gained a day every 128 years, which had become obvious by the middle ages. Pope Gregory XIII tweaked the Julian Calendar slightly in 1582, removing three leap years every 400 years, a change of about 0.002% to Caesar's great reform, and the world then gradually moved from using the Julian Calendar to the almost identical Gregorian Calendar, which is now universally used across the West apart from in some Eastern Orthodox churches, who still use the Julian calendar to calculate the dates of some moveable feasts.


There was a very interesting stat I saw yesterday that's worth a look, and you can see that here. It's looking at the big moves up from the low and the stat is a good illustration both of the power and the danger of these sort of stats. I don't disagree with the stat at all but I'm going to do a post at the weekend pointing out important details that can be missed on stats like these, notably in this case that a number of these instances were just before big declines. The stat does however support Stan and my main scenario here, which is that the final bull market high is not yet behind us but still ahead. I'll talk more about that in my weekend post as well.


Yesterday was a strange day to say the least. To start with SPX overshot the obvious H&S neckline by 11 handles, which weakened the H&S setup even though the bounce I was talking about yesterday morning then delivered in spades. That bounce was then apparently fuelled by the Fed unexpectedly reinstating $6bn of POMO that had previously been cancelled, and the bounce was a very strong squeeze that ran a very impressive 52 handles from low to high.
So what's the takeaway, apart from the obvious that as well as distorting the economy on the bigger picture, the Fed can also make trading tricky on an intraday basis?


SPX broke down yesterday and has fallen further overnight. What I'd like to see today is a bounce from the 1902 area back to backtest the 1930 area and form the right shoulder on an H&S that would then target the 1857 area on a break below the H&S neckline in the 1902 area. We'll see whether that plays out today.
Important support is at the hourly 50 MA at 1908, so if we are going to see that right shoulder bounce, I'd be looking for that from a low in the first hour, without too much time below that support level. SPX 60min chart:

Looking For A Reversal Pattern

ES has been on 60min sell signals for a while now, with three of them having fixed since the low, and none of those having yet made target. What's new today though is that on SPX there were 5min and 15min RSI 14 sell signals fixed yesterday, and a 60min RSI 14 sell signal brewing today. This uptrend could be ending here, and I'm watching rising wedge support, currently at 1935, as a break below would look very bearish now. SPX 15min chart:


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