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SPX made the second day of a daily upper band ride on Friday, and might do a third today. Until demonstrated otherwise though I'm leaning towards seeing a decent retracement in the near future. Short term rising channel support is in the 2124-8 area today, and if we should then see a retracement to channel support, that is currently just under the daily middle band in the 2085-90 area. SPX daily chart:

Pushing Up From The Triangle

If we do see some rejection in the 2124-8 area, there is still significant support at the 50 hour MA, which closed Friday at 2103.5. SPX 60min chart:

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We've now seen an epic six tests of triangle resistance on SPX. I'm expecting it to break up but starting to wonder if I'll live long enough to see that happen (j/k). Expecting to see another run at that today and hopefully this time it will break up. SPX 60min chart:

The (Seemingly) Eternal Triangle

Triangles do eventually have to break of course, and the TLT triangle broke down yesterday. That move also broke the double top and I'm expecting to reach pattern targets in the 125-6 area. I would then expect to see a lower low under 122.71 on the way to targets much lower. TLT 60min chart:

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After the strong day yesterday SPX is close to a test of triangle resistance in the 2110 area. If the triangle breaks up, as I'm expecting though not necessarily today, then bulls also need to take SPX over the last high at 2111.91, and then the current all time high at 2119.59. The 50 hour MA, which closed yesterday at 2098, is key support and any significant or sustained break below it would be a warning signal that the bulls might be unravelling for today. SPX 60min chart:

Testing Triangle Resistance - Take #5

I've had a few questions about why I'm expecting to see a test of the 2170 area here, and there are a number of reasons but a key one is this. I'm expecting a retracement this summer that will either test the monthly lower band or at the least trade well under the monthly middle band, currently at 1934.

Historically such a move on SPX either comes directly from a hit or near miss of the monthly upper band (majority of cases) or a hit in the previous few months without a strong further move up. . An exception was the 1937 top where the upper band had not been tested at 11 months and well below, but that was a major top before what was, in effect, a crash. The monthly upper band on SPX was last tested 17 months ago in the 1850 area, and unless we are to see something historically unprecedented on SPX this year, the upper band should be tested before this decline begins. The monthly upper band is currently at 2171. SPX monthly chart:

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SPX fell hard on Friday, made the smaller double top target and broke down from the larger double top. Shortly after the LOD SPX broke up from a falling wedge that I called on twitter, and closed the day at a retest of broken larger double bottom support. The retracement low may be in, and if we are to see a fail without another test of triangle resistance in the 2011 area then I'll be looking for resistance at the 50% and 61.8% retracements on the falling wedge, in the 2092 and 2096.5 areas respectively. The 50 hour MA closed Friday at 2096 and is key resistance today. SPX 15min chart:

Two Triangles and A Megaphone

Instead of failing at the obvious double-top setup TLT has formed a triangle and tested triangle resistance late on Friday afternoon. In context, as with the SPX triangle, this is very arguably a bull flag and has at minimum a bullish lean. A break up should deliver a retest of the all time high at 137.66, a break down should take out the March low at 122.71. As ever with triangles there may be multiple false breaks before the triangle makes the genuine break higher or lower. TLT 60min chart:

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SPX tested triangle resistance yesterday and didn't break through it. There is a possible setup here for a reversal back into triangle support in the 2055 area and that's shown on the chart below that I posted on twitter last night. We'll see how today goes, but if triangle resistance holds again today then we will most likely see at least a test of Tuesday's low at 2083.24. SPX 15min chart:

Testing Triangle Resistance

My double bottom setup on oil broke up yesterday. I like this setup a lot and a short squeeze could deliver this quickly, but equally it's very important to remember that when these setups fail, that tends to happen at or just over double bottom resistance. A break back below 53 now would be a warning flag, and a break back under 50 would most likely resume the primary downtrend. Any longs on oil here are counter-trend on the bigger picture. WTIC daily chart:

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SPX found support just at the 50 hour MA yesterday and bounced from there into the close, though not with great conviction. I posted the chart below on twitter last night noting the rising channel that had been established, and that as long as that channel held this morning then the next obvious target is now a retest of the all time high at 2119.59.  SPX 15min chart:

Uptrend Support Tested and Held

There was another key uptrend support level yesterday at the 5DMA. That held on SPX as well, opening and closing above the MA with a pinocchio down to test the 50 hour MA intraday. SPX 5DMA chart:

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I was talking yesterday morning about the negative divergence on the SPX 15min RSI and that has delivered a retracement.  If rising wedge support breaks this morning then I have strong support at the 38.2% fib in the 2085 area, as that is very close to the 50 hour MA. I have alternate fib retracement targets in the 2078 and 2071 areas. SPX 15min chart:

Big Moves Coming Our Way

This retracement should be the final E wave within the triangle. If so then there are three main options here. My preferred option is that the triangle breaks up with a target in the 2185 area and very strong resistance there. I'd be looking for a hard fail there if seen to make the spring high and kick off a likely 15% to 25% retracement from there. The second option is that the triangle breaks up to fail hard in the 2119 high area. The third option is that this retracement reverses all of this last move up. For  the last two options I'd then be expecting a break down through the 2039 low, triggering a double top target in the 1950-60 area. SPX 60min chart:

Big Moves Coming Our Way

I'm watching oil with very great interest here. WTIC broke up from the wave 3 falling megaphone last month and has formed a very nice double bottom targeting the 66 area on a strong break over 54.24. As I have the 38.25 fib retrace at 67.29 and falling channel resistance in the 69 area I'm thinking that we may well see that double bottom play out in the next couple of weeks. WTIC daily chart:

Big Moves Coming Our Way

SPX is at a major inflection point here, and whichever way it breaks we should see a big move very soon. I'm leaning towards the (short term) bull scenario but if we see a break below 2039 it has gone the other way and 2119 was the spring high. Either way I am expecting a very strong retracement this summer.

Source: Springheel Jack

Another strong day on SPX on Friday, and the very obvious target at triangle resistance and the daily upper band in the 2112 area is getting close. SPX daily chart:

Approaching Triangle Resistance

Looking at my multi-index charts there is an argument for seeing a retracement before the 2112 target is hit, but it may be that negative RSI divergence on the 15min chart will just build into the 2112 target. Scan 3x SPX INDU TRAN chart:

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The action has been very whippy this week but the bottom line is that SPX broke back over strong resistance at the 5 DMA, 50 DMA, 50 HMA and the daily middle band, and has very thoroughly and successfully retested those broken resistance levels as support. While that remains the case the obvious targets above are my triangle resistance, still in the 2112 area, and the daily upper band, currently at 2109.54. SPX 60min chart:

Whippy but Bullish

I've been asked a few times whether I am ignoring the fact that the rising wedge from the October low has broken down. I'm not, but there is a sequence to these things. First the pattern breaks, then a topping pattern forms that will often deliver a higher high as it forms, and then the retracement plays out.

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I was talking yesterday morning about the likelihood that SPX would retest broken resistance as support and it took a while, but that was tested at the close yesterday. We could see SPX go a bit lower this morning but what we saw yesterday may well be all. My bull/bear line is at 2068/9 this morning, with the SPX daily middle band now at 2073.5, the 50 hour MA now at 2072.5, and the 5 DMA at 2070. SPX 5DMA chart:

Retesting Broken Resistance as Support

As long as support holds today I'm looking for a test of triangle resistance in the 2112 area. If SPX trades under 2068 then most likely it is breaking back down again, and I'd be looking for possible support at triangle support in the 2050 area, and if that was broken I'd be looking for a break below 2039.69 shortly afterwards. SPX 60min chart:

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