Well here we are. The rising wedges from the February low on SPX, RUT and NDX have all broken down now, and today is the first trading day of the most historically bearish part of the year running through to the end of October. Most of this week leans bearish historically as well, apart from today, with Dow up 13 of the last 18. With Friday closing on multiple short term buy signals I'm looking for rally today and maybe tomorrow, and for the downtrend to resume after that. Tuesday and Wednesday are the cycle trend days this week and at least one of those should be a trend down.
SPX gapped down on Friday though the daily middle band and never filled that gap. Daily middle band support has been broken. The daily RSI5_NYMO sell signal made target, not far from where it fixed, but the daily RSI 14 sell signal that was brewing has now fixed. After a likely rally / consolidation here, SPX should continue down. SPX daily chart:

Read more...

I posted the chart below on twitter last night showing the falling wedge that has formed on SPX from the current swing high, and commenting that this setup will usually be a bull flag that would resolve up into at least a retest of that previous high. I considered the various aspects of this setup and gave 80% odds in favor of a retest of the current 2011 swing high.

However I did note that when a setup like this does break down then that would often take the form of a breakaway gap down through support that was not filled. SPX has gapped down through daily middle band support at the open today, and that gap has not yet been filled. If this is a serious support break then that gap most likely won't fill. If it does fill and we see a daily close today at or over the daily middle band (currently at 2075/6), then support will have held and that would strongly favor a retest of 2111 next week. SPX 60min chart:

Gap And .......

SPX daily chart:

Gap And .......

ES Jun 60min chart:

Gap And .......

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Source: Springheel Jack

That was a very nasty bull trap last night. As the markets closed yesterday the IHS that I was looking at on ES yesterday morning had completed and broken up and SPX closed back above the 50 hour MA. I did note on the ES chart below last night that the breaks needed to survive the night, and they didn't do that, with ES invalidating the IHS and making a new retracement low in globex.

So what now? Well that was a failure at resistance and next up is to see whether SPX and ES can break support. The globex low was at a test of the daily middle band on ES and I'm expecting to see a test of the daily middle band on SPX in trading hours today. Support on SPX is very clear, with a possible sloping H&S neckline in the 2078 area, the current retracement low at 2077, and the daily middle band at 2075. If SPX can sustain a break below these then the H&S target is in the 2040 area, the daily lower band is in the 2035 area, and I have possible larger H&S necklines in the 2030 and 2020 areas that I'd be watching for possible support. SPX daily chart:

Read more...

The FOMC news today is likely to be that there is no news, that interest rates won't be rising this month, and there's no press conference after to add spin to the announcement. Nonetheless markets will likely move on this absence of news, and I've been considering which way that might go. The bad news though is that there are decent setups in both directions here.

Read more...

On SPX yesterday the low was 2077, slightly above my target in the 2074 area but maybe close enough. The key levels today are the ES weekly pivot at 2083.2 (approx 2087/8 SPX), and the SPX 50 hour MA at 2091 (approx 2086/7 ES). Under these levels this current pullback can go lower, above then the lean would be higher. Over 2092 ES (approx 2096/7 SPX) I'd be looking for a retest of the current high high at 2111 and likely marginally higher.
ES Jun 60min chart:

FOMC Chop?

NQ Jun 60min chart:

Read more...
Friday was a strange day looking at SPX, NDX and RUT side by side. NDX/NQ was daddy bear, making the target I gave in the morning and the test of decent support that I gave at the same time. SPX/ES was mummy bear, with a decent retrace but not reaching obvious support. RUT/TF was (possibly adopted) baby bear,  becoming so detached from the other two that RUT actually returned to retest the current swing high in the afternoon. 
 
So where does that leave us this morning? Well there are mixed signals. On SPX the important 50 hour MA, currently at 2091, was broken and  retested as resistance, and with rising wedge also broken the obvious target remains at the possible H&S neckline in the 2074 area. There are no 60min or 15min buy signals yet on SPX, NDX or RUT. SPX 60min chart:
Read more...

The 60min RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals on SPX that fixed in the last hour on Wednesday were playing out yesterday. The RSI 5 signal has made target, but the RSI 14 sell signal is still some way short of target. The low yesterday was at a test of the important 50 hour MA on SPX and it could find support there. The falling wedge that I posted on twitter yesterday afternoon is suggesting a possible strong bounce or retest of Wednesday's high, and if bears want to avoid that then they have important targets below to be tested and broken this morning.

Read more...

SPX didn't quite make my 2114-16 target area yesterday, but it reached 2011, and the pullback in the last hour was sharp enough to fix an SPX 60min sell signal. Having had a look across the indices I'm logging this as a candidate high and what would be required next are some significant support breaks.

The first support break I was looking at on the SPX chart last night is a small one but we've already seen that break at the open today, and that is the break of rising wedge support on the little rising wedge from last week's low at 2040. SPX 60min chart:

Candidate High - Need Some Support Breaks

A 60min sell signal also fixed on RUT, and on the larger rising wedge on RUT there has already been the touch of rising wedge support that SPX missed doing yesterday. RUT 60min chart:

Candidate High - Need Some Support Breaks

I'm not huge on trading with correlations, but I would say that to the extent that this move up on SPX has been supported by the big rally on oil, that support may well be ending here, as this is a very sweet setup on oil to retest the current bear market low at 26. We'll see how that goes. WTIC daily chart:

Candidate High - Need Some Support Breaks

I have strong support on SPX in the 2078-84 area (approx 2072-8 ES), and I'm not getting excited about the prospects for a retracement here until that support is broken, but the setup here looks promising so far. We'll see how that develops today and tomorrow.

Source: Springheel Jack

Yesterday's low at 2091/2 SPX (2085 ES) was retested overnight in globex and held. Unless that fails first today the obvious next target above is in the 2114/5 area at trendline resistance. That is supported by the intersection of two resistance trendlines on ES there as well, and if hit that will be a possible top for this move up from the February low, something I would call a candidate high. Ideally we'd test that today and there would be a clear reversal there, ideally into a red close for the day. SPX 60min chart:

Read more...

There are plenty of reasons to expect a strong retracement soon. There are strong open daily sell signals fixed on SPX, NDX and RUT. The 'Crazytown' extreme overbought area relative to the 45 day pivot has been tested repeatedly over the last week, and with Crazytown starting at 2085 today, ES has spent the whole day so far in Crazytown. This is an extreme level and periods trading inside it do not tend to last long.

That said the bears had the reassurance of being not far below major resistance trendlines until yesterday afternoon, and those major trendlines are now not far below, which means that they are no longer resistance, and may possibly now turn into support. I noted on my SPX daily chart a couple of weeks ago that a break above the SPX trendline that broke yesterday would have a target at a retest of the all time high at 2134. Unless we see a break back over 2116 then I'm still looking for a strong retracement before that test. If we see a break back over 2116 SPX then I'd be looking for a test of the high first and then most likely that strong retracement very soon afterwards. The area above 'Crazytown' is 'Bet Jerry's House' and it's not called that because SPX has ever spent much time there in the past. That starts at 2115 SPX today and I would take a moment just to clarify that under no circumstances would I ever suggest going all in on any trade, as regardless of the setup that is never a sane option.

Read more...

More Articles...

Page 8 of 112

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>


press bottom

                       

Get Ryan's Morning Newsletter with all of the essential market data and analysis for your trading day for Free!

twitterfacebookbuttonsyoutube buttoninstagram buttonemailrss feed

enter-the-shareplanner-splash-zone-trading room

part-time trader 300x250

Badges Large NEW - Copy