I was mentioning yesterday that the stats for today historically are strongly bullish. Dow has been up 16 of the last 21 first trading days of April. Does this mean that the market can't close down? No, but it does mean that the bears are playing a game today with the odds heavily stacked against them, and the obvious lean is for a green close unless we see very strong evidence to the contrary. In effect the first trading day of April is a little slice of the year that is forever 2013, and that was a very bad year to lean short.

I mentioned the obvious retest and support level at the SPX 50 hour MA yesterday morning and that was tested this morning, and so far is holding. As long as that remains the case then I'm looking for a retest of the current rally high at 2072, though I'd note that the break below trendline support on the possible larger rising wedge that I pencilled in yesterday morning means that the odds of going much higher than that retest have dropped considerably. SPX 60min chart:

A Statistical Slice of 2013

I was looking at a likely retest of the rally high on ES there, mainly on the historical stats for today. That looked a bold call then but with ES since having filled the overnight gap down that is even more obviously the next target area. ES Jun 60min chart:

A Statistical Slice of 2013

I said the same on NQ and again looking for that retest with a likely looking fail not far above. NQ Jun 60min chart:

A Statistical Slice of 2013

TF was the minority report chart this morning, with a very decent looking double top target in the 1090 area. Sometimes though a double top will turn out to be a bull flag forming and I think this is one of those. TF Jun 60min chart:

A Statistical Slice of 2013

In essence we have been following the retrace then high retest scenario that I laid out yesterday morning, though the way that has been delivered has not been at all friendly, and has been tough to trade. That scenario remains the most likely option for today as long as the SPX 50 hour MA holds as support.

Source: Springheel Jack

The short term patterns on SPX, NDX and RUT from Tuesday's Yellen spike broke down and are forming likely bull flags here. I'm expecting to see those go a bit lower today before breaking up to at least test yesterday's highs. They may reverse at that retest. The ES chart looks supportive of that scenario, though I'm struggling to find another chart to back that up. ES Jun 60min chart (from last night):

Read more...

That was an unexpectedly doveish speech from Yellen yesterday, even by Fed standards. Shrugging off the fairly impressive economic numbers recently Yellen damped down expectations of any interest rates rises in the near future, which wasn't that unexpected, but then talked about the Fed being ready to use unconventional tools to stimulate the economy if necessary, which managed to leave a lot of pundits under the impression that the Fed is considering that possibility in the near future.

Read more...

I was saying on Thursday morning that predicting the direction on a cycle trend day was a very chancy business and so it was on Thursday. Despite tiny up volume at the open on Thursday the low of the day was in the first few minutes, and while it wasn't a trend up day, buyers dominated the tape until the close. Thursday was an excellent example of a cycle trend day that wasn't a full trend day in all respects, very much including the unexpected direction.

Moving onto today, the first thing that I would note from the SPX 60min chart is that the very important 50 hour MA was gapped through on Friday and was retested as resistance at the open today. That's in the 2040 area now and a decent break back over that would open a retest of the current rally high at 2056.60. That would most likely make the second high of a double top though it might go a little higher in that event of course. If the 50 hour MA holds as resistance today, then on a break below Thursday's low I would have an H&S target in the 1990 area, and would be watching the possible larger H&S necklines in the 2005 and 1970 areas. SPX 60min chart:

Read more...

I was saying a couple of days ago that topping processes tend to start with a hard spike down and here we are. SPX and ES broke their rising wedges yesterday and then spent most of the day testing the strong support in the 2035 area that I mentioned in the morning. That has broken overnight and as long as that holds as resistance today, that opens up the downside towards the obvious targets at the big support levels and possible H&S necklines in the 2005 and 1970 areas. SPX 60min chart:

Read more...

I've been waiting patiently for the rising wedges on SPX and ES to confirm this week with tests of the wedge support trendlines and both have been tested and held so far this morning. It may be that these will hold today and if so, then we might well see a retest of yesterday's highs.

If wedge support breaks then there is quite a bit to suggest a trend down day today, though nothing fixed as yet. A support break like this would often go directly into a hard spike down, there is an open SPX 60min RSI 14 sell signal that is nowhere near target, the up volume so far at 16% is very low and at a level often seen on trend down days, and the short term buy signals that fixed at the first lows this morning are showing no sign of making target so far. On trend days most or all short term counter-trend buy or sell signals tend to fail. We'll see.

My bull/bear level for today is conversion of the ES weekly pivot at 2026.40, so about 2035 SPX. If bears can convert that to resistance then we likely trend down towards obvious targets in the 2020 and 2000 areas. That kind of move would start off a topping process here very nicely. SPX 60min chart:

Read more...

It is highly likely that SPX is close to the rally high here, or has made it already, and that at minimum SPX should now be the topping process for that rally. As well as the various patterns and divergences a 60min sell signal fixed at the open this morning, and the volume spike seen on Friday tends to be the market equivalent of the 'black spot' at predicting the imminent death of short term trends.

On the daily chart below there are nine previous instances of this kind of volume spike, and all of them were at or slightly before a significant high or low. The smallest move after the high or low was made on any of those nine instances was 80 handles on the bounce in December 2015.

Of the five previous examples before significant lows, four of those involved more than one volume spike before the turn, but all four previous instances before a high needed only one volume spike day. Three of those made the swing high that day and the other made a marginal new high four days later just 15 handles higher, before dropping over 100 handles in the five days after that. SPX daily chart:

Read more...

The ES weekly pivot is at 2025 this week and that is in the SPX 2034 area. I'm leaning towards a test of that area today or tomorrow morning because this generally gets tested during a trading week, and the RSI sell signals on the 15min chart and the RSI 5 sell signal on the 60min SPX chart are suggesting that we likely see that test in the next few trading hours before any significant further upside progress.

Longer term though there is currently no negative divergence on the 60min RSI 14 or on the daily chart RSIs so that is suggesting that the rally high is not yet in. SPX 60min chart:

Some Retracement Likely Today
Read more...

 

One thing you can generally count on after an FOMC that has moved the markets significantly, even when the news has been as huge as (ahem) Yellen's announcement yesterday that the four proposed interest tiny rate rises this year (that were never likely to actually happen) have been scaled down to two proposed tiny interest rate rises this year (that are never likely to actually happen), is that within 24 hours there should be a 'Return To The Scene Of The Crime' retest of the level before the news event. That level is at 2002 are there was a determined attempt to reach it overnight. Decent odds that we see that retest today:

Returning To The Scene Of The Crime

The short term setup at the close yesterday was pretty bearish, as you can see on my SPX 15min chart. There's a similar setup on NDX. This was one of the fifteen or so Wednesday update charts that I did last night for subscribers at theartofchart.net, and the wedge support test was at the 2014 level at the close last night. Obviously that trendline is rising so a test this morning would be at a lower level than a test this afternoon. SPX 15min chart:

Returning To The Scene Of The Crime

The main channel support trendline on SPX closed the day yesterday in the 2008 area, and that is rising at 9-10 handles per day. The top priority for the bear side this morning is to break that trendline. If it can be broken then I would be reading this as a likely rising wedge break, as an alternate possible wedge resistance trendline has been established and would be confirmed on a break below what would then be wedge support. A powerful daily RSI 5_NYMO sell signal is brewing on the SPX daily chart now but bears need to deliver some support breaks before it can fix. SPX daily chart:

Returning To The Scene Of The Crime

Today is a cycle trend day, so there are 70% odds that the day will be dominated by either buyers or sellers, though this does not always mean a full trend day up or down. As this is an inflection point it is particularly important to both sides to try and capture the day. The bears start with the advantage today. We'll see if they can manage not to drop the ball.

Source: Springheel Jack

FOMC is the big wild card today of course and it seems fairly clear that the market isn't expecting a rate rise for quite a while. I suspect that's exactly right but that is the likely reality rather than the perception. From the Fed perspective they have at least demonstrated last year that they can remember how to raise rates, and the credibility from that tiny uptick then gives any barking they do now about the possibility of them biting again with another tiny rate rise at least some credibility. The guidance given before this meeting today suggests that Yellen will be talking tough today on possible interest rate rises coming and if she follows through on that guidance then there may be a negative market reaction at 2pm. We'll see.

SPX didn't make the obvious target at the 2000 retest yesterday and isn't showing much sign so far of testing that today. Rising channel support close yesterday at 2000 so unless that test is in the first 90 minutes today that test would then be below channel support. That said, the rising channel on RUT broke down yesterday and I'm not expecting the SPX rising channel to survive the end of this week.

SPX 60min chart:

Read more...

More Articles...

Page 8 of 111

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>


press bottom

                       

Get Ryan's Morning Newsletter with all of the essential market data and analysis for your trading day for Free!

twitterfacebookbuttonsyoutube buttoninstagram buttonemailrss feed

enter-the-shareplanner-splash-zone-trading room

part-time trader 300x250

Badges Large NEW - Copy