Yesterday went broadly as expected. The 60min buy signals I was looking at on ES, NQ and TF did deliver the decent rally I was wondering about.The HOD was a shade under the 50 hour MA resistance at 2063 that I mentioned as first strong resistance, and SPX then returned to a new retracement low and the first break below the H&S neckline, though that wasn't sustained into the close. So what now?
Well obviously the bears need to follow through into the sustained break below the H&S neckline that would fix the H&S target at 1965 SPX as a high probability target, but leaving that aside, if this H&S is going to play out, then it will most likely play out as a lower band ride on SPX. The daily lower band was tested at the low yesterday, and that lower band ride may therefore have already started. The daily lower band is at 2036 SPX today and if so, that should at least be hit, though what I'd really like to see today is a strong move down to start the real move down towards the SPX H&S target at 1965.