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TLT Breaks Major Support

16 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
Somewhat to my surprise TLT gapped down through major support at 123.5 to 124 yesterday, and almost made it to the sloping H&S target in the 121 area. Realistically I am expecting more downside on TLT after this break, though we might first see broken support retested and possibly yesterday morning's gap filled first. There is an OK looking... Read more...

TLT Retests Major Support

15 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
I'm leaning bearish for the rest of the year, though very much with an open mind that it could go the other way. One thing I've been watching and writing about as very important for the bear case for the remainder of 2012 is what's happening on TLT. Major support is at 123.5 to 124, and that was tested last Thursday. TLT bounced there, formed an... Read more...

Lost in Space

14 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
SPX has now spent five days trading in a narrow range with support at 1397 and resistance at 1406. Overall this looks like topping action, as SPX is too close to the upper bollinger band on the daily chart to allow for a lot of upside without at least some retracement. What we might well see though is a test of the April high, which is at 1422.38,... Read more...

Euro Reverses Up

13 August 2012
by Springheel Jack

I was leaning bearish for the last three days last week, and while SPX didn't go up, it didn't go down either. On Friday morning there was a very promising break down through a decent short term trendline that had developed. That was quickly reversed, and overnight that recovered trendline has held as support. A rough triangle has formed over the...

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TLT Hits Strong Support

10 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
I've been leaning bearish for a couple of days now, and we haven't seen a significant retracement yet, but SPX hasn't bulled upwards either. On the SPX daily chart SPX is dropping away from the (still rising) upper bollinger band. If we see a retracement into the middle bollinger band then that is at 1373 today, and 1380 or below would count as a... Read more...

Still Leaning Bearish

09 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
I mentioned yesterday that ES and SPX were looking short term toppy and that's even more the case today. On ES we have a possible rising wedge forming as I mentioned yesterday, and within that rising wedge ES has broken short term (weak) rising support and now formed a possible double-top. On a break below 1390 the pattern target is in the 1378... Read more...

A Lot of Channels

08 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
SPX has been pushing up the upper bollinger band on the daily chart as I was suggesting it might well do. A landmark was reached yesterday when SPX reached the 14-3-5 target area for the IHS from the low. Making that target was a long and winding road and it is no longer in play. Worth noting on this chart that SPX rising channel resistance is... Read more...

Riding The Band

07 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
I was saying yesterday morning that we would either see a reversal at the daily upper bollinger band or a series of small incremental moves up as SPX pushed the upper bollinger band up, and what we're seeing so far is the second option. This can last a few days though the ES 60min chart is looking a bit weak here. Here's the SPX daily chart:
Riding The Band
On... Read more...

Bullish Setups Mainly

06 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
The first thing to say today is that SPX returned to hit the top of the daily bollinger band on Friday. This means either that we will now see a retracement, or that further gains are likely to be smaller daily incremental gains as SPX pushes the daily upper bollinger band higher:
Bullish Setups Mainly
I'm leaning towards at least a small retracement or consolidation... Read more...

European Wind

03 August 2012
by Springheel Jack
The decision at the ECB meeting yesterday was a strong indication that the fighting talk from Draghi, Merkel and others last week was just wind, and that there will most likely be no big push from the ECB to start printing money on a large scale, because the Germans won't accept it.

There was a substantial decline on the news which... Read more...

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