by Fuinhaz

There is not much to say today besides the fact that we have to wait for the fed decision to come out at 2:00pm.

I personally will not trade much today until I see a significant move in the market. I highly suggest you to do the same.

$SPY 1st support is 165.55, 2nd support 164.47 and 3rd is 163.38.

$SPY 1st target is 166.89 and 2nd is 169.07.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

Market still showing strength as we are just one day from the fed's decision. We had a nice pop of 6.8% in house starts.

As we broke above the $SPY's 164.47 level yesterday the chances of us ramping up to 165.55 are becoming more and more real. I also will go as far to say that I will not be surprised to see us print 166.89 bfore turning down again.

$SPY 1st support is 164.47, 2nd support 163.38 and 3rd is 161.82.

$SPY 1st target is 165.56 and 2nd is 166.89, 3rd is 169.07.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

First of all I hope everyone had an amazing Father's day. My was fantastic surrounded by my lovely women, and dearest friends.

So we have the Fed meeting this week, and the market is showing some excitement to the upside. I think that is great, but I like to see how that excitement compares to my  charts.

My charts are telling me that this excitement will meet some resiatance at 164.47. As we can see from the pre-market as I write this at exactly 8:58am, we have the $SPY @ 164.28.

If it can indeed break above this Fibonacci level, then the next target is 165.56.

Something also tells me that at some point the Fed will surprise with a rate increase, and then this crazy pops will just end.

Not that I am bearish, I already mentioned that inumerous times. I just don't like the market doing what it does best. Illudes retail investors, and suck in the ones who do not have someone sounding the alarm for them.

This weekend in Brazil we had the kick off for the FIFA's Confederations Cup. That is the pre-world cup rehersal to see if the hosting country is ready for next years challenge.

So far Brazil showed that is very well prepared for the biggest fiasco in World Cup organization. A lot of protests are happening where the populations is showing their insatisfaction with the government, and how ripped off they feel about hosting a cup which they clearly know that they can't afford.

While the people are shouting and booing the president on the first game, this is clearly the signals I am seeing for the history's biggest crisis just waitng to happen.

Anyway untill it happens, here are today's numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 163.38, 2nd support 161.82 and 3rd is 159.84.

$SPY 1st target is 164.47 and 2nd is 165.56, 3rd is 167.19, and 4th just for fun is 167.78.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

First of all I hope everyone had an amazing Father's day. My was fantastic surrounded by my lovely women, and dearest friends.

So we have the Fed meeting this week, and the market is showing some excitement to the upside. I think that is great, but I like to see how that excitement compares to my  charts.

My charts are telling me that this excitement will meet some resiatance at 164.47. As we can see from the pre-market as I write this at exactly 8:58am, we have the $SPY @ 164.28.

If it can indeed break above this Fibonacci level, then the next target is 165.56.

Something also tells me that at some point the Fed will surprise with a rate increase, and then this crazy pops will just end.

Not that I am bearish, I already mentioned that inumerous times. I just don't like the market doing what it does best. Illudes retail investors, and suck in the ones who do not have someone sounding the alarm for them.

This weekend in Brazil we had the kick off for the FIFA's Confederations Cup. That is the pre-world cup rehersal to see if the hosting country is ready for next years challenge.

So far Brazil showed that is very well prepared for the biggest fiasco in World Cup organization. A lot of protests are happening where the populations is showing their insatisfaction with the government, and how ripped off they feel about hosting a cup which they clearly know that they can't afford.

While the people are shouting and booing the president on the first game, this is clearly the signals I am seeing for the history's biggest crisis just waitng to happen.

Anyway untill it happens, here are today's numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 163.38, 2nd support 161.82 and 3rd is 159.84.

$SPY 1st target is 164.47 and 2nd is 165.56, 3rd is 167.19, and 4th just for fun is 167.78.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

So what was the real reason for the bounce off the 161.30 level in the $SPY. For starters 161.35 is the $SPY's 50ma, so normally it was tested and held. Second is the $NYMO (McClellan Oscillator) that from time to time I like to mention on my $SPY reads.

The chart below show that the $NYMO went under the oversold territory, and as soon as the $SPY touched the 50ma, everything lined up, and we had a strong solid bounce.

So does that mean we are going to make new highs?

Well yes and no. Yes the $SPY did finished ready for another break out, very close to the 164.50 level, and the market is oversold.

No because I still believe that the 159.40 level needs to be tested in order for us to have a much powerfull rally into new highs, but I think that now it will happen in a way that it will not come back to new highs, but only be some support, where a bounce will come and test the 50ma as resistance, and then drop further.

Listen, I had people come to me and say. Fuinhaz, you never give the right direction. Feels like you are protecting yourself all the time.

To those I say, it is hard to predict the right direction. That I agree, but one cannot say that I do not prepare both sides well before anything happens. Being bearish or bullish is an option, being a trade is take all the information you can and use it to your benefit.

Here are the Numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 163.38, 2nd support 161.84 and 3rd is 159.84.

$SPY 1st target is 164.50 and 2nd is 165.56, 3rd is 166.91, and 4th just for fun is 169.07.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

Sorry everyone, I got to keep it simple again today.

Here are the Numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 161.35, 2nd support 1660.25 and 3rd is 159.40.

$SPY 1st target is 162.83 and 2nd is 164.30, 3rd is 166.15, and 4th just for fun is 169.78.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

Another busy morning for me.

Here are the Numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 163.62, 2nd support 162.35 and 3rd is 160.25.

$SPY 1st target is 164.66 and 2nd is 165.71, 3rd is 167.19, and 4th just for fun is 167.78.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

I got to keep this very simple today everyone. I got to take care of some personal issues this morning, nothing serious, just things that need to be done. So here are the numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 164.66, 2nd support 163.62 and 3rd is 162.35.

$SPY 1st target is 165.71 and 2nd is 167.19, 3rd is 167.78, and 4th just for fun is 169.09.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

The $SPY got defended yesterday @ 160.50 (50ma), and spiked into a nice V shaped bounced, that took a lot of people by surprise including yours trully.

I honest felt that we were going to slice through that 50ma, and hold the line on a spot less visable to many. I personally don't expect this positive vibe to last too long.

I am curious to see how the $SPY will not handle the 20ma (164.85). That should be an interesting level to observe and expect some kind of concrete wall resistance, or a nice level where the $SPY can break out and run freely to new highs.

Jobs report was decent, with 5,000 more jobs created than previously expected.

Truth is from all the other economies, the US is again the leader, and still the safest place to invest/trade, but will it be able to hold and stay above once everything starts to fall apart.

Thats is to be seen.

$SPY 1st support is 163.35, 2nd support 161.82 and 3rd is 159.80.

$SPY 1st target is 163.63 and 2nd is 164.67, 3rd is 165.71, and 4th just for fun is 167.19.

Trade what you see, not what you think

by Fuinhaz

I had a great day yesterday. Some solid gains, and I only traded 3 stocks. I woke up this morning with the $SPY trying to boiunce off trying to make 1 almost 1 point from yesterday's close. And all that without a Jobs Report which is due at 8:30am. I do like when the $SPY try to anticipate a move, suck as many retail investors in, only to continue what it does best which is to illude people.

I do think a bounce is in place, but not until we reach 159.40 - 159.80 range, and not until the $NYMO (McClellan Oscilator) touches base with it's oversold territory as I illustrate below.

The Erupean Union just came out this morning and left their interest rate unchanged at .50 basis point. I am not surprised to see them doing that since things are really bad over there. I came back from a 3 week trip to Belgium and France, and was horrified by what I saw. Stores are empty, many of them closing, on the news we hear of strikes left and right. I actually saw the best strike in years. The people who presents the nightly news went on strike for 1 day. Now how do you make a news program with no host? Well very simple, they showed the shots from the news, but there was no explanation. How brilliant is that?

One other significant change I saw from my last trip 2 years ago, is the fact that many solid city center business (butcher, florist, restaurants, bakeries) were all closed and put up for sale. It might not be too meanful for us who live here in the US, but in Europe it means that these stablishments that were solid money makers for the owners, who in some some cases were there for 40+ years, are now closing their doors. Everything is being eaten up by the crisis, and from what i can tell they are far from getting back on track.

Even Disneyland Paris looked like a ghost town. For the first time I went to Disney, and I did not felt the magic. I spent 2 days there with my kids, and saw a lot of restaurants and rides closed. I doubt that they can carry that park too much longer. Again it was very sad to see.

Now I got so depressed, that I rather close this sad $SPY read with the numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 161.75, 2nd support 159.80 and 3rd is 159.40.

$SPY 1st target is 163.35 and 2nd is 164.43, 3rd is 165.52, and 4th just for fun is 166.87.

Trade what you see, not what you think