Remember how April started with a correction scare after the S&P reached new highs? There were rumors of 5% corrections down to 1450 sprinkled in with the 5-15 minute reminders on the financial news channel that we are, or were just a moment ago, at record highs. Then, the pullback continued into a blowoff bottom to the 34-MA, only to shoot back up at algorithm speeds.  Now we're back to the record highs with two days of a major whipsaw to skim some cash off the stoppers before the next move.

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What? 2.2% drop in S&P futures from alltime highs in three days?

Well how 'bout we just fix that back in two?  My morning prediction of ending the Christmas Parade of red-green candles came true with two greens taking /ES to new (intraday) highs.  I'm glad I didn't have CNBC in case they pulled out the party hats again.

But I find it interesting that most of the recovery move in /ES was made yesterday, while today was just a big shakeout, flailing in both directions.  I don't doubt the highs will be retested, but I think 1560 is starting to harden up as resistance.

And take a look at the /TF - /ES comparison below:

There are two distinct differences that I immediately spot:

1. That /TF has only partially recovered about halfway from the drop while /ES made sure to make a new record high ("intraday", as they like to remind us on CNBC).
2. Each chart closed in opposite directions.  There is obviously some disagreement between Russell and S&P.

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The Christmas-like red-green red-green candles continue on. The /ES this evening is starting out as a little green doji, but should end the day green if the ABAB pattern continues.  The short-term trend is down, but Friday's panic sell bounced roughly around my long-term uptrend.

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Taking a late-night look at S&P 500 futures.  This market has been going through violent swings, bouncing hard against a range that appears like a shakeout before a big move.

Since starting to look at futures, I've been looking harder at candle setups and moving averages.  And I notice two things in the latest /ES action: 1) we're getting closer to a somewhat weak trendline support. 2) This price is determined to stay above the 8-day MA right now.  I'd consider that double support to be respected... until it isn't.

I'll be expecting a green candle day to follow the red of today.  Interesting how it's been red-green, red-green since this oh-so-minor "correction."

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Out of frustration with trying to post updates on this site, I have returned to my Blogger roots.  If Ryan will approve, I would like to continue to post links to those entries here.  I'll keep it simple for now until I find out what boss-man has to say.

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My last post compared current market action to a similar pattern setup at the end of 2010.  Two days later, I thought I'd follow up with an update of how things are going.  See below:

On left, the old data, on the right is the current close of the S&P.  History is rhyming, and the indicators are harmonizing as they should.   But surrounding factors are still showing signs of weakness, enough to say the famous last words, "this time it's different."

If the pattern follows history, tomorrow will see a long-tail candle but will end flat to up.  Then, the next day (Thursday) will open up and challenge the highs of today, coming back to a comfortable close.  It's the following day (which will be this Friday for us) that will see the breakout to the upside as a new round of stealth QE melts prices up for 3 more months.

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I was looking at April's action in the indices, trying to figure out which way it's gonna go out of this range boundary that we've been in since March.  When looking at a (much) longer time frame, I noticed a similar-shaped pattern formed in the S&P back in 2010. I've tried to line them up below:

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