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MikeK

About Me

Trading Profile

Type of Trader
Position Trader
Trading for me...
is a Full-Time Job.
About me
Counter-Trend trader predominately. I execute huge volumes of study and research. Timing the next market turn is my goal. I also like to isolate individual equities that are doomed by structure, market forces and management.
I've been investing for about 20 years and began trading more often and sometimes aggressively during the onset of the economic crisis.
I follow fundaments more closely than technical set ups. I try to pick sectors / stocks based on events and macro trends. My charting and technical skills/ knowledge are improving and I am developing custom settings that fit my somewhat unconventional and intuitive understanding of stock movements.

Thanks Ryan, Matt and all of the Shareplanner contributors for their hard work and dedication!
Favorite Trade Setups
Oversold value plays,
State
Nevada
Country
United States
 

Groups

MikeK
trade what you know, avoid bottom fishing, be patient, recognize danger, above all keep a sense of humor
10197
Points
3
Groups
22
Friends
180
Charts
752
Activities
MikeK's Statistics
Total Trade Ideas: 367 Avg. Winning Trade %: 9.49%
Winning Trade Ideas: 232 Avg. Losing Trade %: -3.07%
Winning %: 73.42% Trades Liked: 486
Most Profitable Trade: 79.57% Trades Disliked: 45
User's Trades

Wall

KrisB
I would like to thank you again sir for your amazing input you give me. I appreciate and very much value your insight. It's always a pleasure chatting up some with you =)
Thursday, 17 May 2012 10:16
 
RyanMallory
Yes - great job Mike on the RTSA trade... and it looks like you are cleaning it up on the Poker table based on your avatar.
MikeKMikeK on Tuesday, 15 May 2012 11:55

Thanks. I still hold over 60% of the RTSA position. It is the single largest short position that I'd ever accumulated... problematic due to the trading liquidity, but ideal fit for my analysis that the markets are overvalued broadly and headed for a final 12-14 month bear market correction that I currently project to last until early June 2013. I plan to continue to trade RTSA around the core position... no time decay and maximum leverage fits my market projections in the longer term and also provides a hedge for my intent to periodically swing some long plays in temporary oversold conditions.
As far as poker goes, I won an important pro circuit event on My 11 and netted over $9000, I'm not a pro but it is definitely a confidence boost in knowing that I can beat some of the best.

Tuesday, 15 May 2012 07:12
 
MattWalters
I see that RSTA trade paid off nicely. You were patient on that because it went against you in the beginning. Nice work!
Monday, 14 May 2012 13:07
 
MikeK
Geometric big picture
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XVG&p=D&yr=20&mn=3&dy=0&id=p72940068819&a=264936116

Bear counts
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p09082407485&a=264983072

Near Term Bear timing
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p79252920451&a=266762695
Saturday, 12 May 2012 10:35
 
MikeK
Japan historical perspective... when the real estate bubble burst... QE rescues of the '90's ; during booming global markets stabilized the $NIKK in what i now an extremely long bear.... 90's chart http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NIKK&p=D&st=1992-04-01&en=2000-04-03&id=p33869869739&a=243067227
Chart to date : stockcharts.com(today)&id=p40203685687&a=243067227 In my opinion the Japan experience cannot be ignored, massive easing does not solve excess leverage, it only prolongs
Saturday, 12 May 2012 10:32
 
MikeK
Market statistics :::: Frequency Of Bear Markets Bear markets, defined as a period where the market goes down 20% or more, from peak to trough, happen frequently; in the last 108 years, from 1900 - 2008, 32 times, or about 1 out of every 3 years. The average length of a bear market is 367 days. The Year After A Bear Market In the last 75 years (i.e., 1934-2008), as measured by calendar year, the S&P 500 stock index has suffered total return losses of at least 20% in four different years, the most recent was 2008’s 37.0% decline. In the year after the three previous 20%+ tumbles, the index gained an average of +32% (source: BTN Research). Despite Bear Markets, Time Is On Your Side The split between “up” and “down” time periods for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years (1958-2008) as measured by: Days: 53% “up” and 47% “down.” Months: 58% up, 42% down Quarters: 63% up, 37% down Years: 72% up, 28% down 5 Year Rolling Time Periods: 76% up, 24% down 10 Year Rolling Time Periods: 88% up, 12% down The calculations above are based upon the raw index value of the S&P 500 and thus would not include the impact of any reinvested dividends. (source: BTN Research).
Saturday, 12 May 2012 10:31
 
MikeK
"...Conclusion Any forecast that assumes the recovery from the Great Recession will resemble previous post-World War II recoveries runs the risk of overstating future economic growth, lending activity, interest rates, investment, and inflation...."

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-12.html
Wednesday, 18 April 2012 17:13
 
MikeK
Permanent Financial Crisis
Broad view of history and current Investment ideas

http://www.greycourt.com/whitepapers/WhitePaperNo52-TheEndofHistory(Again).pdf
Wednesday, 18 April 2012 16:37
 
MikeK
I am definitely not a fan of George Soros... but he does understand markets

"... regard changes in stock prices as part of a historical process and I focus on the discrepancy between the participants' expectations and the actual course of events as a causal factor in that process. (...) I claim that market participants are always biased in one way or another.

I replace the assertion that markets are always right with teo others:
1. Markets are always biased in one direction or another.
2. Markets can influence the events that they anticipate.

We have here a reflexive relationship in which stock prices are determined by two factors- underlying trend and prevailing bias- both of which are, in turn, influenced by stock prices.

Instead of fundamentals determining exchange rates, exhange rates have found a way of influencing the fundamentals...."

http://www.investmentsoffice.com/io/Investment_Thoughts/Market_Desk/The_Alchemy_of_Finance.php
Wednesday, 18 April 2012 16:15
 
MikeK
Spanish auction event risk tomorrow is significant, in the big picture it will be a quite small event, it merely reflects another small step in what will be an unnecessarily long process of de-leveraging. Spanish & Italian markets are reflecting the economic reality... liquidity injections are delaying tactics. Japan's lost decades are the template for 'can-kicking' ad infinitum- this situation is no different, except for the European political structure which delays timely and effective response.The debt burdens will lead to restructuring, structured defaults followed by more injections... meanwhile the US markets are outperforming by several orders of magnitude- a liquidity rush- some call it a sugar high... I see it as the last hope. History is full of evidence of what is the next probable outcome. US corporate profit margins are currently at all time highs, with one minor exception, which was a brief period in 1929. Many technicians either avoid or have difficulty in drawing downtrends (including lower lows) which is understandable as the market trend is typically higher. While charting, look down to the right, past what is obvious.

The stock crash of 1929 was unexpected, in fact most respected analysts though the market was substantially undervalued. Digging deep into the numbers, the US market had an equivalent P/E ratio of 13.3 in August 1929, this number is very closely related to the US markets today.
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/SR/SR294.pdf

We have many advantages today especially in regards to speed and availability of information. We need to use this to our advantage. Certainly no 'man on the street' could have foreseen a strong correction looming in 1929, there was simply not enough data available and communications were extremely constrained compared to today's standards. While the great power of the central banks is engineering a paper recovery to the financial crisis, not one underlying economic problem is truly being addressed. The dramatic stock market advances and standard of living increases in the developed world are a creation of credit expansion combined with productivity gains due to the technological revolution. We have hit the wall, productivity gains are far harder to achieve, cheap oil is no longer available. The result is growth stalling, debt repayment is dependent on continued growth The answer is political. We need far fewer roadblocks to growth and innovation, deregulation and smaller government overhead. These are not new arguments of course. The world wide economic condition will continue to deteriorate for the medium term until leadership embraces policies that allow bussiness's to to grow without mandates and interference. From a traders perspective, I have no alternative but to be strongly biased short.
Wednesday, 18 April 2012 16:11
 
MikeK
Employment Calculator

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm

Fantastic little tool
Monday, 16 April 2012 12:17
 
MikeK
trade what you know, avoid bottom fishing, be patient, recognize danger, above all keep a sense of humor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=f74MweTRICM
Sunday, 15 April 2012 19:45
 
MikeK
Dow Historical Timeline
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/us-jpn98.html
Sunday, 15 April 2012 11:14
 
MikeK
Sir John Templeton and Peter Lynch
Friday, 13 April 2012 21:04
 
MikeK
http://www.georgelindsay.com/george_lindsay/wall_street_week_with_louis_rukeyser
Friday, 13 April 2012 16:24
 
MikeK
SP 3P $COMP Long term
Friday, 13 April 2012 11:01
 
MikeK
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000083950&play=1#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDgzOTUwIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoieENYWElkc1ZNbk1rWWVSZlcxbEs5Zz09IiwidlRhYiI6ImluZm8iLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iXSwiZ1NlY3QiOiJBTEwiLCJnUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==
MikeKMikeK on Friday, 13 April 2012 11:01

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/03/all-feasts-must-come-to-an-end-chinas-debt-investment-fuelled-growth-part-1/

Friday, 13 April 2012 10:12
 
MikeK
SP TP&DH
Tuesday, 10 April 2012 11:37
 
MikeK
SP Three Peaks & Domed House
MikeKMikeK on Wednesday, 25 April 2012 21:26

I finished my first study of the 3Peaks and the art of technical trading... I've done some detailed work in regards to Lindsay's timing and price targets... the initial results are some what different than my preconceived projections prior to studying the authors interpretations of Lindsays work. Lindsay was most interested in timing more than price although he did provide some formulas for calculating targets from confirmed patterns. IMO timing is always the hardest task, so the years of research that Lindsay accumulated are highly important to me. My interpretation of the timing ( per 3peaks) is that there will be a market top ( and completion of rt shoulder on most averages)on or about May 11 (13 is Sunday).

MikeKMikeK on Wednesday, 25 April 2012 21:27

SPY- High of 142 is top, most likely to form right shoulder on bounce. Target after correction is 121


Comments originally posted in chat 4/12/12

Tuesday, 10 April 2012 11:37
 
MikeK
SP Three Peaks & Domed House
Tuesday, 10 April 2012 11:37
 

My Articles

Monday, 16 January 2012 18:24

Friday, 06 January 2012 14:05

Sunday, 01 January 2012 19:54

MyBlog

Numerous factors affect oil price: demand, supp .....
Friday, 06 January 2012 Hmmm
US employment #'s were surprise- I would have e .....
Monday, 16 January 2012 Earnings Season
Earnings season moves into full swing this week .....

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Recent activities

photos
MikeK added 1 new Charts in Misc. Graphs, Files & Charts album
12 hours ago
friends
Steve bought TVIX at $9.58 with a stop-loss of $8.60 and a target of $16.00
14 hours ago
friends
RyanMallory covered WCRX at $20.15 for a 3.22% gain.
14 hours ago
friends
RyanMallory covered SAP at $59.88 for a 3.90% gain.
14 hours ago
friends
MikeK bought KOLD at $34.95 with a stop-loss of $32.77 and a target of $39.50
14 hours ago
friends
MikeK sold YANG at $16.00 for a 19.94% gain.
15 hours ago
photos
RyanMallory added 4 new Charts in Trade Setups album
15 hours ago
friends
KrisB bought HTGC at $10.84 with a stop-loss of $10.71 and a target of $11.27
16 hours ago
friends
KrisB shorted DF at $14.53 with a stop-loss of $14.60 and a target of $14.21
16 hours ago
friends
Steve sold FFN at $1.33 for a 15.65% gain.
16 hours ago
friends
MikeK sold FAZ at $27.08 for a 6.61% gain.
17 hours ago
friends
MikeK bought AGQ at $40.85 with a stop-loss of $40.28 and a target of $45.00
18 hours ago
friends
RyanMallory shorted JCI at $30.73 with a stop-loss of $32.00 and a target of $29.02
18 hours ago
walls
KrisB wrote on MikeK's Walls
19 hours ago
friends
MikeK bought GDXJ at $18.43 with a stop-loss of $17.17 and a target of $21.67
20 hours ago
friends
KrisB bought GDXJ at $18.32 with a stop-loss of $18.35 and a target of $18.91
20 hours ago
friends
KrisB bought SIL at $16.97 with a stop-loss of $16.94 and a target of $17.55
20 hours ago
friends
MikeK bought KOLD at $36.77 with a stop-loss of $36.35 and a target of $39.50
20 hours ago
friends
MikeK bought GDXJ at $17.88 with a stop-loss of $17.14 and a target of $21.67
21 hours ago
friends
tscoats sold PHM at $9.79 for a 2.10% loss.
21 hours ago
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