Whether you like Donald Trump or not, when it comes to trading or investing in the stock market, it simply doesn’t matter. Political views you harbor will never provide you with any kind of return on your trades. So when it comes to profiting in the stock market, get past your hate, or your love for our current president and focus on whether or not an investment in a particular stock during a Trump presidency will go up or not.
So what do you have with Donald Trump?
You have a president who is going to put a lot of emphasis on infrastructure, brick and mortar, and an unconventional means of communication with the American people and the world at large.
There are also macro elements that tend to occur during Republican presidencies that don’t always happen during Democratic presidencies - namely the approach to monetary policy, and I’ll get into that as well.
We have a changing of the guard for the first time in eight years, and as a result there with be some different characteristics that you’ll notice about the stock market that wasn’t present during the Obama administration.
Some stocks that did well under Obama aren’t necessarily going to do as well under Trump’s administration. For instance, coal stocks have a much better chance at increasing in value during Trump’s presidency than they did under Obama.
So let’s get down to it and dissect the five companies that are poised to only go up over the next four years.
Trump Stock #1: Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
You build a wall that stretches across the United State’s entire southern border, you are going to need some construction equipment to pull it off - and a lot of it! If you are going to rebuild the aging infrastructure of America’s roads and bridges, well guess what? You are going to need some construction equipment.
This company has already felt the positive impact of Donald Trump being elected president and I’m pretty confident that it won’t be missing out on that love and feeling going forward as you can expect that they will be providing a ton of front end loaders, cranes, and other machines in order to fulfill Trump’s campaign promises and his vision for the country.
This is probably the safest of all the picks, because there is already talk of a major infrastructure package of over one trillion (yes, trillion) being discussed by lawmakers. And when it comes to roads and bridges, this is something lawmakers can always get behind, because they can go back to their constituents and say, “Look what I have done for you!”
Trump Stock #2: Aecom (ACM)
With a $5.8 billion dollar market cap, you aren’t talking about a massive company, but along the lines of Caterpillar (CAT), Aecom (ACM) will be a direct beneficiary of the increase in infrastructure projects that are bound to be funded by Congress.
Believe it or not, There were a few times last year where I was shorting ACM for some decent profits. But now, I wouldn’t dare short this company. The wind is at its back and when infrastructure is probably the only issue that both Republicans and Democrats are likely to agree on over the next four years, then you know you got a good shot at a winning investment on your hands.
Trump Stock #3: Goldman Sachs (GS)
Let’s face it, this company is always positioned to benefit from anything that comes their way. But more so, they are going to be the direct beneficiaries of a more hawkish Federal Reserve - namely Janet Yellen, for as long as she remains the head of the Fed (or at least the next year).
Here’s the thing, if you look at it from a historical standpoint, the Federal Reserve is always more hawkish during the presidential terms of a Republican president and much more Dovish during a Democrat’s presidency.
The entire Obama Administration saw rates remain at 0% up to 0.5%. That is unbelievable from a historical standpoint.
That has never happened before!
Go back to the Clinton Administration and you’ll see where Alan Greenspan kept them relatively steady in the 4-5% range which led to, in Greenspan’s own words, “Irrational Exuberance”. The Bush administration was my favorite though, in terms of the Fed actually raising them and lowering them as the economy dictated. But once Obama became President, there was never even a hope of raising the rates again - and that was with a market that rose from 2009 through 2016 nonstop.
Now let’s go back and look at Reagan’s years as president. Volcker actually managed the economy based on what it was doing, raising the rates at times in 2% increments. He even jacked those rates up to 20% when Reagan was sworn in.
So what’s the takeaway from all of this?
The Fed historically raises rates much more aggressively during Republican administrations than Democrat administrations. The beneficiaries of this will obviously be the banks as they will be able to get a far better return on their money.
And that is why Goldman Sachs is my one of my top four long-term investments during the Trump Administration.
Trump Stock #4: Twitter (TWTR)
Okay, some people are literally going to lose their mind over this one. And that’s okay, I can take the beating that some will want to send my way. But face it, Trump is changing the media as we know it. From Skyping the Press Briefings, to going over the heads of the major news networks, to communicating directly with the people himself, Twitter is at the forefront of it, and as Twitter becomes more and more the medium of choice for Trump to communicate, the more that people, who otherwise would never have used Twitter in the first place, will be drawn to this new means of communication and as a result force traditional media to rely on it more.
Now there is one problem with this play and that is the problem of Twitter figuring out how to capitalize on all this new found attention that Trump is sending their way. They have to better monetize Twitter without obstructing people’s daily use of Twitter with annoying ads (or those useless moments feature).
If they can do that, I think they will truly see a massive increase in the value of the company, assuming that one day, they can figure out a good approach to monetizing their platform.
Finding the Trump Stock Investments For Your Portfolio
You have to pay close attention to what Trump is saying. Stocks like Facebook (FB) may continue to go up during the Trump years because they have an incredible product and they have shifted from being what the Street would consider a “growth” stock to a “value” stock, but that doesn't necessarily mean they have the winds of a favorable administration at their backs.
That is what you have to be looking for. Twitter (TWTR) has all sorts of problems in trying to figure out how to monetize their product correctly, but if they ever do actually figure it out, they have so much going for them from a Trump administration standpoint, that it will only amplify any good decisions and innovations that they manage to implement successfully.
If you are looking for the stock investments that benefit from Trump’s policies (remember we aren’t trying to figure out whether he will be a good president or not, but what stocks stand to benefit from his policies), we have to look at what his focus primarily will be. Right now, it isn’t in Silicon Valley or the biotechs, it is with infrastructure, defense, and deregulation.
That is where your focus has to be. Trade accordingly!
So tell me in the comments below, what kind of stocks are you expecting to go up during the Trump administration?